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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more