Aggregator

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the south-central U.S. ahead of this system. At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the second half of the period. A broad zone of low-level warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly elevated convective development through the second half of the period. ...Central Texas... Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak elevated destabilization. As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm activity to occur after dark. While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints) will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability occurrence. Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area. Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE. ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the south-central U.S. ahead of this system. At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the second half of the period. A broad zone of low-level warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly elevated convective development through the second half of the period. ...Central Texas... Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak elevated destabilization. As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm activity to occur after dark. While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints) will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability occurrence. Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area. Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE. ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dry and cool airmass will prevail across the CONUS on Tuesday. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity. The only exception will be across northern Arizona where cold air aloft and steep lapse rates may result in some weak instability sufficient for a few lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dry and cool airmass will prevail across the CONUS on Tuesday. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity. The only exception will be across northern Arizona where cold air aloft and steep lapse rates may result in some weak instability sufficient for a few lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dry and cool airmass will prevail across the CONUS on Tuesday. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity. The only exception will be across northern Arizona where cold air aloft and steep lapse rates may result in some weak instability sufficient for a few lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dry and cool airmass will prevail across the CONUS on Tuesday. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity. The only exception will be across northern Arizona where cold air aloft and steep lapse rates may result in some weak instability sufficient for a few lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dry and cool airmass will prevail across the CONUS on Tuesday. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity. The only exception will be across northern Arizona where cold air aloft and steep lapse rates may result in some weak instability sufficient for a few lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dry and cool airmass will prevail across the CONUS on Tuesday. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity. The only exception will be across northern Arizona where cold air aloft and steep lapse rates may result in some weak instability sufficient for a few lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dry and cool airmass will prevail across the CONUS on Tuesday. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity. The only exception will be across northern Arizona where cold air aloft and steep lapse rates may result in some weak instability sufficient for a few lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity through late afternoon/early evening has been focused across western AZ under an upper low where very cold temperatures aloft, combined with modest low-level warming, has supported sufficient buoyancy for lightning production. This environment was sampled well by the 00 UTC FGZ sounding; however, buoyancy is expected to quickly diminish as surface temperatures rapidly cool with the loss of daytime heating. Falling LightningCast probability values over the past 30-60 minutes suggest this trend is already underway. While a flash or two appears possible during the 01-02 UTC time frame, lightning potential through the remainder of the overnight hours appears sufficiently low to remove thunder probabilities. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity through late afternoon/early evening has been focused across western AZ under an upper low where very cold temperatures aloft, combined with modest low-level warming, has supported sufficient buoyancy for lightning production. This environment was sampled well by the 00 UTC FGZ sounding; however, buoyancy is expected to quickly diminish as surface temperatures rapidly cool with the loss of daytime heating. Falling LightningCast probability values over the past 30-60 minutes suggest this trend is already underway. While a flash or two appears possible during the 01-02 UTC time frame, lightning potential through the remainder of the overnight hours appears sufficiently low to remove thunder probabilities. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity through late afternoon/early evening has been focused across western AZ under an upper low where very cold temperatures aloft, combined with modest low-level warming, has supported sufficient buoyancy for lightning production. This environment was sampled well by the 00 UTC FGZ sounding; however, buoyancy is expected to quickly diminish as surface temperatures rapidly cool with the loss of daytime heating. Falling LightningCast probability values over the past 30-60 minutes suggest this trend is already underway. While a flash or two appears possible during the 01-02 UTC time frame, lightning potential through the remainder of the overnight hours appears sufficiently low to remove thunder probabilities. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 27 22:01:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 27 22:01:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also chances for precipitation. Towards the weekend, potential for windy/dry conditions will exist across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains as enhanced upper-level flow moves across the Rockies. A surface cyclone will develop across the southern Plains, with strengthening of a lee trough across the High Plains. This pattern will favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also chances for precipitation. Towards the weekend, potential for windy/dry conditions will exist across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains as enhanced upper-level flow moves across the Rockies. A surface cyclone will develop across the southern Plains, with strengthening of a lee trough across the High Plains. This pattern will favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also chances for precipitation. Towards the weekend, potential for windy/dry conditions will exist across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains as enhanced upper-level flow moves across the Rockies. A surface cyclone will develop across the southern Plains, with strengthening of a lee trough across the High Plains. This pattern will favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also chances for precipitation. Towards the weekend, potential for windy/dry conditions will exist across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains as enhanced upper-level flow moves across the Rockies. A surface cyclone will develop across the southern Plains, with strengthening of a lee trough across the High Plains. This pattern will favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also chances for precipitation. Towards the weekend, potential for windy/dry conditions will exist across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains as enhanced upper-level flow moves across the Rockies. A surface cyclone will develop across the southern Plains, with strengthening of a lee trough across the High Plains. This pattern will favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more