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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the south-central U.S. ahead of this system. At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the second half of the period. A broad zone of low-level warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly elevated convective development through the second half of the period. ...Central Texas... Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak elevated destabilization. As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm activity to occur after dark. While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints) will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability occurrence. Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area. Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE. ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the south-central U.S. ahead of this system. At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the second half of the period. A broad zone of low-level warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly elevated convective development through the second half of the period. ...Central Texas... Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak elevated destabilization. As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm activity to occur after dark. While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints) will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability occurrence. Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area. Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE. ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the south-central U.S. ahead of this system. At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the second half of the period. A broad zone of low-level warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly elevated convective development through the second half of the period. ...Central Texas... Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak elevated destabilization. As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm activity to occur after dark. While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints) will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability occurrence. Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area. Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE. ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the south-central U.S. ahead of this system. At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the second half of the period. A broad zone of low-level warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly elevated convective development through the second half of the period. ...Central Texas... Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak elevated destabilization. As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm activity to occur after dark. While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints) will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability occurrence. Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area. Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE. ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the south-central U.S. ahead of this system. At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the second half of the period. A broad zone of low-level warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly elevated convective development through the second half of the period. ...Central Texas... Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak elevated destabilization. As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm activity to occur after dark. While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints) will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability occurrence. Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area. Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE. ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more