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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Zonal westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Sunday, as a belt of strong low-level flow remains over the western Gulf Coast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas Coastal Plain. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. Due to widespread cloud cover, surface heating ahead of the front is expected to be minimal, and instability should remain weak during the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop near the front on Thursday from the Texas Coastal Plain into southern Louisiana, but weak instability should be unfavorable for severe storms. This storms are forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Zonal westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Sunday, as a belt of strong low-level flow remains over the western Gulf Coast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas Coastal Plain. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. Due to widespread cloud cover, surface heating ahead of the front is expected to be minimal, and instability should remain weak during the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop near the front on Thursday from the Texas Coastal Plain into southern Louisiana, but weak instability should be unfavorable for severe storms. This storms are forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Zonal westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Sunday, as a belt of strong low-level flow remains over the western Gulf Coast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas Coastal Plain. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. Due to widespread cloud cover, surface heating ahead of the front is expected to be minimal, and instability should remain weak during the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop near the front on Thursday from the Texas Coastal Plain into southern Louisiana, but weak instability should be unfavorable for severe storms. This storms are forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Zonal westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Sunday, as a belt of strong low-level flow remains over the western Gulf Coast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas Coastal Plain. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. Due to widespread cloud cover, surface heating ahead of the front is expected to be minimal, and instability should remain weak during the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop near the front on Thursday from the Texas Coastal Plain into southern Louisiana, but weak instability should be unfavorable for severe storms. This storms are forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Zonal westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Sunday, as a belt of strong low-level flow remains over the western Gulf Coast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas Coastal Plain. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. Due to widespread cloud cover, surface heating ahead of the front is expected to be minimal, and instability should remain weak during the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop near the front on Thursday from the Texas Coastal Plain into southern Louisiana, but weak instability should be unfavorable for severe storms. This storms are forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across central interior valleys of California this evening. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will also be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana during the latter half of the period. ...California... Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread into central CA as a 500mb closed low evolves later this evening across the Sacramento Valley. As profiles cool/steepen, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop, despite the marginal boundary-layer moisture expected. Forecast soundings for CCL between 00z-04z exhibit around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, if lifting a near-surface based parcel. While cloud tops will be relatively shallow, very cold temperatures suggest some risk for lightning discharge with the most robust updrafts. Even so, this activity should remain rather isolated. ...Texas/Louisiana... Broadly anticyclonic flow is currently noted across northern/central Mexico late this evening. Latest model guidance does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is embedded within this flow, and current water-vapor imagery supports this. With neutral-weak mid-level height rises expected across TX/lower MS Valley, it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary mechanism for potential convection during the latter half of the period. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across deep south TX by 18z with a focus into northwest LA after 06z. Modified Gulf moisture is forecast to advance north into this region, and forecast soundings suggest adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms if lifting parcels near 850mb. Elevated updrafts should remain too weak to warrant a severe hail risk. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across central interior valleys of California this evening. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will also be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana during the latter half of the period. ...California... Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread into central CA as a 500mb closed low evolves later this evening across the Sacramento Valley. As profiles cool/steepen, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop, despite the marginal boundary-layer moisture expected. Forecast soundings for CCL between 00z-04z exhibit around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, if lifting a near-surface based parcel. While cloud tops will be relatively shallow, very cold temperatures suggest some risk for lightning discharge with the most robust updrafts. Even so, this activity should remain rather isolated. ...Texas/Louisiana... Broadly anticyclonic flow is currently noted across northern/central Mexico late this evening. Latest model guidance does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is embedded within this flow, and current water-vapor imagery supports this. With neutral-weak mid-level height rises expected across TX/lower MS Valley, it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary mechanism for potential convection during the latter half of the period. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across deep south TX by 18z with a focus into northwest LA after 06z. Modified Gulf moisture is forecast to advance north into this region, and forecast soundings suggest adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms if lifting parcels near 850mb. Elevated updrafts should remain too weak to warrant a severe hail risk. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across central interior valleys of California this evening. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will also be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana during the latter half of the period. ...California... Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread into central CA as a 500mb closed low evolves later this evening across the Sacramento Valley. As profiles cool/steepen, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop, despite the marginal boundary-layer moisture expected. Forecast soundings for CCL between 00z-04z exhibit around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, if lifting a near-surface based parcel. While cloud tops will be relatively shallow, very cold temperatures suggest some risk for lightning discharge with the most robust updrafts. Even so, this activity should remain rather isolated. ...Texas/Louisiana... Broadly anticyclonic flow is currently noted across northern/central Mexico late this evening. Latest model guidance does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is embedded within this flow, and current water-vapor imagery supports this. With neutral-weak mid-level height rises expected across TX/lower MS Valley, it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary mechanism for potential convection during the latter half of the period. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across deep south TX by 18z with a focus into northwest LA after 06z. Modified Gulf moisture is forecast to advance north into this region, and forecast soundings suggest adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms if lifting parcels near 850mb. Elevated updrafts should remain too weak to warrant a severe hail risk. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across central interior valleys of California this evening. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will also be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana during the latter half of the period. ...California... Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread into central CA as a 500mb closed low evolves later this evening across the Sacramento Valley. As profiles cool/steepen, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop, despite the marginal boundary-layer moisture expected. Forecast soundings for CCL between 00z-04z exhibit around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, if lifting a near-surface based parcel. While cloud tops will be relatively shallow, very cold temperatures suggest some risk for lightning discharge with the most robust updrafts. Even so, this activity should remain rather isolated. ...Texas/Louisiana... Broadly anticyclonic flow is currently noted across northern/central Mexico late this evening. Latest model guidance does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is embedded within this flow, and current water-vapor imagery supports this. With neutral-weak mid-level height rises expected across TX/lower MS Valley, it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary mechanism for potential convection during the latter half of the period. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across deep south TX by 18z with a focus into northwest LA after 06z. Modified Gulf moisture is forecast to advance north into this region, and forecast soundings suggest adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms if lifting parcels near 850mb. Elevated updrafts should remain too weak to warrant a severe hail risk. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across central interior valleys of California this evening. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will also be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana during the latter half of the period. ...California... Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread into central CA as a 500mb closed low evolves later this evening across the Sacramento Valley. As profiles cool/steepen, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop, despite the marginal boundary-layer moisture expected. Forecast soundings for CCL between 00z-04z exhibit around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, if lifting a near-surface based parcel. While cloud tops will be relatively shallow, very cold temperatures suggest some risk for lightning discharge with the most robust updrafts. Even so, this activity should remain rather isolated. ...Texas/Louisiana... Broadly anticyclonic flow is currently noted across northern/central Mexico late this evening. Latest model guidance does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is embedded within this flow, and current water-vapor imagery supports this. With neutral-weak mid-level height rises expected across TX/lower MS Valley, it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary mechanism for potential convection during the latter half of the period. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across deep south TX by 18z with a focus into northwest LA after 06z. Modified Gulf moisture is forecast to advance north into this region, and forecast soundings suggest adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms if lifting parcels near 850mb. Elevated updrafts should remain too weak to warrant a severe hail risk. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...01z Update... Offshore flow, due to the presence of a dominant surface high, has shunted meaningful moisture/buoyancy well south/east of the CONUS. Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...01z Update... Offshore flow, due to the presence of a dominant surface high, has shunted meaningful moisture/buoyancy well south/east of the CONUS. Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...01z Update... Offshore flow, due to the presence of a dominant surface high, has shunted meaningful moisture/buoyancy well south/east of the CONUS. Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...01z Update... Offshore flow, due to the presence of a dominant surface high, has shunted meaningful moisture/buoyancy well south/east of the CONUS. Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2025 Read more

Ice on the Missouri River at Omaha, combined with low water levels, due to drought, were jamming some units at Omaha Public Power District’s North Omaha Power Station. Such interesting ice jams have not occurred since 1989. KETV Newswatch 7 (Omaha, Neb.), Jan 24, 2025

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 24 22:11:02 UTC 2025.