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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

MD 0043 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of south into southeast and eastern Texas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 210400Z - 210800Z SUMMARY...Wintry precipitation rates should increase through tonight across southeastern portions of Texas, with sleet and freezing rain accumulations likely to continue. DISCUSSION...700 mb WAA continues to increase atop a sub-freezing airmass over southeastern TX as a positively tilted mid-level trough glances the region to the north. Meanwhile, the dry low-levels support wet-bulb temperatures well below freezing given ample evaporative cooling/sublimation potential. Over the next couple of hours, continued cooling of the surface-850 mb layer, due to both 925 mb CAA and evaporative cooling, should support an increased potential for wintry precipitation (as evident based on recent reports of ice accretion and sleet accumulations). The greatest near-term potential for freezing rain/ice accretion will be along a zone roughly from Wilson to Tyler Counties, where surface observations show surface temperatures already cooled below 32 F. Latest high-resolution guidance shows sleet/freezing rates peaking sometime after 06Z, including over portions of deep-south TX. With time, at least moderate snowfall rates may eventually be observed closer to the southeast TX coastline. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28789686 27639811 27479862 28629842 29729812 30359727 30899592 31199473 31259398 30999377 30489386 29879437 29819506 28789686 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain off the FL Peninsula. Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain off the FL Peninsula. Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain off the FL Peninsula. Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain off the FL Peninsula. Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain off the FL Peninsula. Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain off the FL Peninsula. Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain off the FL Peninsula. Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Ridging to the north of the blocking mid-level high centered over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific is rebuilding, as an initially suppressing short wave perturbation progresses inland across British Columbia. The latter feature is forecast to dig through the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday, reinforcing large-scale troughing now encompassing much of central and eastern North America. As this occurs, a pair of initially digging downstream short wave perturbations will be forced east-northeastward, into and through strong, confluent flow between a prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic and a broad cyclonic circulation centered over the far northeastern Canadian provinces. Although down slope flow may contribute to moderating temperatures across the northern and central Great Plains, seasonably cold air associated with surface ridging entrenched across much of the southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard will generally be maintained. It appears that the shallow leading edge of this cold air mass will remain south and east of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, with little in the way of surface frontal wave development across the west central through southeastern Gulf of Mexico due to lack of mid/upper support. ...Northwestern Gulf coast... In the presence of steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with differential thermal advection, it still appears that elevated moisture return will contribute to weak destabilization (rooted in the 800-700 mb layer) as far northwest as upper Texas/Louisiana coastal areas by 12-15Z this morning. This probably will provide support for a period of increasing convective development, with thermodynamic profiles possibly become conducive to at least some lightning production before diminishing by early afternoon. There remains substantive spread concerning this potential, however, and thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, based on objective calibrated guidance from both the NCEP SREF and HREF. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Ridging to the north of the blocking mid-level high centered over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific is rebuilding, as an initially suppressing short wave perturbation progresses inland across British Columbia. The latter feature is forecast to dig through the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday, reinforcing large-scale troughing now encompassing much of central and eastern North America. As this occurs, a pair of initially digging downstream short wave perturbations will be forced east-northeastward, into and through strong, confluent flow between a prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic and a broad cyclonic circulation centered over the far northeastern Canadian provinces. Although down slope flow may contribute to moderating temperatures across the northern and central Great Plains, seasonably cold air associated with surface ridging entrenched across much of the southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard will generally be maintained. It appears that the shallow leading edge of this cold air mass will remain south and east of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, with little in the way of surface frontal wave development across the west central through southeastern Gulf of Mexico due to lack of mid/upper support. ...Northwestern Gulf coast... In the presence of steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with differential thermal advection, it still appears that elevated moisture return will contribute to weak destabilization (rooted in the 800-700 mb layer) as far northwest as upper Texas/Louisiana coastal areas by 12-15Z this morning. This probably will provide support for a period of increasing convective development, with thermodynamic profiles possibly become conducive to at least some lightning production before diminishing by early afternoon. There remains substantive spread concerning this potential, however, and thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, based on objective calibrated guidance from both the NCEP SREF and HREF. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Ridging to the north of the blocking mid-level high centered over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific is rebuilding, as an initially suppressing short wave perturbation progresses inland across British Columbia. The latter feature is forecast to dig through the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday, reinforcing large-scale troughing now encompassing much of central and eastern North America. As this occurs, a pair of initially digging downstream short wave perturbations will be forced east-northeastward, into and through strong, confluent flow between a prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic and a broad cyclonic circulation centered over the far northeastern Canadian provinces. Although down slope flow may contribute to moderating temperatures across the northern and central Great Plains, seasonably cold air associated with surface ridging entrenched across much of the southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard will generally be maintained. It appears that the shallow leading edge of this cold air mass will remain south and east of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, with little in the way of surface frontal wave development across the west central through southeastern Gulf of Mexico due to lack of mid/upper support. ...Northwestern Gulf coast... In the presence of steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with differential thermal advection, it still appears that elevated moisture return will contribute to weak destabilization (rooted in the 800-700 mb layer) as far northwest as upper Texas/Louisiana coastal areas by 12-15Z this morning. This probably will provide support for a period of increasing convective development, with thermodynamic profiles possibly become conducive to at least some lightning production before diminishing by early afternoon. There remains substantive spread concerning this potential, however, and thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, based on objective calibrated guidance from both the NCEP SREF and HREF. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Ridging to the north of the blocking mid-level high centered over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific is rebuilding, as an initially suppressing short wave perturbation progresses inland across British Columbia. The latter feature is forecast to dig through the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday, reinforcing large-scale troughing now encompassing much of central and eastern North America. As this occurs, a pair of initially digging downstream short wave perturbations will be forced east-northeastward, into and through strong, confluent flow between a prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic and a broad cyclonic circulation centered over the far northeastern Canadian provinces. Although down slope flow may contribute to moderating temperatures across the northern and central Great Plains, seasonably cold air associated with surface ridging entrenched across much of the southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard will generally be maintained. It appears that the shallow leading edge of this cold air mass will remain south and east of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, with little in the way of surface frontal wave development across the west central through southeastern Gulf of Mexico due to lack of mid/upper support. ...Northwestern Gulf coast... In the presence of steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with differential thermal advection, it still appears that elevated moisture return will contribute to weak destabilization (rooted in the 800-700 mb layer) as far northwest as upper Texas/Louisiana coastal areas by 12-15Z this morning. This probably will provide support for a period of increasing convective development, with thermodynamic profiles possibly become conducive to at least some lightning production before diminishing by early afternoon. There remains substantive spread concerning this potential, however, and thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, based on objective calibrated guidance from both the NCEP SREF and HREF. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Ridging to the north of the blocking mid-level high centered over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific is rebuilding, as an initially suppressing short wave perturbation progresses inland across British Columbia. The latter feature is forecast to dig through the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday, reinforcing large-scale troughing now encompassing much of central and eastern North America. As this occurs, a pair of initially digging downstream short wave perturbations will be forced east-northeastward, into and through strong, confluent flow between a prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic and a broad cyclonic circulation centered over the far northeastern Canadian provinces. Although down slope flow may contribute to moderating temperatures across the northern and central Great Plains, seasonably cold air associated with surface ridging entrenched across much of the southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard will generally be maintained. It appears that the shallow leading edge of this cold air mass will remain south and east of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, with little in the way of surface frontal wave development across the west central through southeastern Gulf of Mexico due to lack of mid/upper support. ...Northwestern Gulf coast... In the presence of steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with differential thermal advection, it still appears that elevated moisture return will contribute to weak destabilization (rooted in the 800-700 mb layer) as far northwest as upper Texas/Louisiana coastal areas by 12-15Z this morning. This probably will provide support for a period of increasing convective development, with thermodynamic profiles possibly become conducive to at least some lightning production before diminishing by early afternoon. There remains substantive spread concerning this potential, however, and thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, based on objective calibrated guidance from both the NCEP SREF and HREF. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Ridging to the north of the blocking mid-level high centered over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific is rebuilding, as an initially suppressing short wave perturbation progresses inland across British Columbia. The latter feature is forecast to dig through the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday, reinforcing large-scale troughing now encompassing much of central and eastern North America. As this occurs, a pair of initially digging downstream short wave perturbations will be forced east-northeastward, into and through strong, confluent flow between a prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic and a broad cyclonic circulation centered over the far northeastern Canadian provinces. Although down slope flow may contribute to moderating temperatures across the northern and central Great Plains, seasonably cold air associated with surface ridging entrenched across much of the southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard will generally be maintained. It appears that the shallow leading edge of this cold air mass will remain south and east of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, with little in the way of surface frontal wave development across the west central through southeastern Gulf of Mexico due to lack of mid/upper support. ...Northwestern Gulf coast... In the presence of steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with differential thermal advection, it still appears that elevated moisture return will contribute to weak destabilization (rooted in the 800-700 mb layer) as far northwest as upper Texas/Louisiana coastal areas by 12-15Z this morning. This probably will provide support for a period of increasing convective development, with thermodynamic profiles possibly become conducive to at least some lightning production before diminishing by early afternoon. There remains substantive spread concerning this potential, however, and thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, based on objective calibrated guidance from both the NCEP SREF and HREF. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2025 Read more