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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. ..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0037 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0037 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Areas affected...Portions of North and west-central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191232Z - 191430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible this morning into early afternoon in parts of North/Central Florida. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Temperatures in central Florida have slowly risen into the low 70s F this morning. A line of storms moving eastward south and east of Gainesville have shown some intensification as they have encountered the modestly unstable air. Given the wind fields in place, this activity, though perhaps only weakly surface based, will be organized. Strong/damaging gusts may occur as muted surface heating continues into the afternoon. Though surface winds are veered, area VAD profiles do show sufficient SRH for a brief tornado in the strongest storms. The observed 12Z Tampa sounding showed relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. This, combined with modest MLCAPE, should keep the severe threat marginal/isolated. Additional storms are noted offshore west of the Tampa vicinity. These storms should eventually approach the shore and pose a similar wind gust/brief tornado threat. ..Wendt/Hart.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27758307 28818288 29458251 29848173 29888122 29328101 28598194 28058232 27648275 27688287 27758307 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward across the central peninsula, with an associated line of thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures - capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly weaken and veer. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable period will persist through at least Friday/D6 as a large upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS eventually exits the East Coast around Saturday/D7 morning. Behind this large-scale feature, zonal flow may briefly develop before another trough possibly develops to the west. Predictability is very low for the latter part of the D4-8 period with large model spread, and as such no severe areas are warranted. Read more