SPC Jan 21, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... An amplified and progressive upper trough will move quickly from the MS Valley to the East Coast on Friday/D4, with zonal flow developing behind this system. High pressure will follow, maintaining dry offshore winds across the Southeast. Models remain in relatively good agreement with the large-scale pattern through the weekend, depicting a positive-tilt upper trough over the southwestern states. A broad fetch of west/southwest flow aloft is forecast to extend across the southern Plains and into much of the East, with the deep upper low over eastern Canada. Sufficient instability is forecast to develop across parts of southern and eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Saturday/D5 Night into Sunday/D6. Given the antecedent cool air at the surface, substantial clouds and precipitation appear likely, reducing overall destabilization and severe potential. Models diverge around Monday/D7, with uncertainly regarding whether another wave will develop into the northern Plains and Great Lakes as disturbances rotate around the large-scale low. To the west, the trough/low over the Southwest may eventually eject east, but timing for this is uncertain as well with low predictability at this time frame. In any case, severe potential is forecast to be low through the period. Read more

SPC MD 44

6 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0044 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0044 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of far western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 210416Z - 210815Z SUMMARY...Heavy lake-effect snow should continue into the early morning hours, with 3 inch/hour intermittent snowfall rates likely. DISCUSSION...The lake-effect snow-band has taken a more southwest-to-northeast orientation over the past hour or so, with heavy snow recently reported as far south as the Dunkirk Airport. 04Z mesoanalysis shows increased boundary-layer convergence and moistening along a northern Chautaugua to Erie County line, which will support continued heavy snowfall rates within the main band. Snowfall accumulations over very short time periods via reports suggest that near 3 inch/hour snowfall rates may be occurring with this snow band. With the 04Z mesoanalysis showing 7.5 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates present over water (where a long moisture fetch is in place), 2-3 inch/hour snowfall rates may continue into the early morning hours, as also suggested by latest high-resolution guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF... LAT...LON 42467965 42677916 42857882 42937844 42827827 42577845 42407890 42337923 42357944 42357954 42467965 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient will persist across southern California, with some strengthening of the gradient likely by late Wednesday afternoon as another in a series of mid-level troughs overspread the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday). Another day of offshore flow capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread is expected. By afternoon peak heating, widespread sustained 20-30 mph wind speeds are likely, along with RH dropping to at least the 10-15 percent range. Locally higher wind speeds/gusts are also likely in terrain-favoring areas. Anywhere from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountains may experience the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions, necessitating the introduction of Critical fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient will persist across southern California, with some strengthening of the gradient likely by late Wednesday afternoon as another in a series of mid-level troughs overspread the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday). Another day of offshore flow capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread is expected. By afternoon peak heating, widespread sustained 20-30 mph wind speeds are likely, along with RH dropping to at least the 10-15 percent range. Locally higher wind speeds/gusts are also likely in terrain-favoring areas. Anywhere from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountains may experience the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions, necessitating the introduction of Critical fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient will persist across southern California, with some strengthening of the gradient likely by late Wednesday afternoon as another in a series of mid-level troughs overspread the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday). Another day of offshore flow capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread is expected. By afternoon peak heating, widespread sustained 20-30 mph wind speeds are likely, along with RH dropping to at least the 10-15 percent range. Locally higher wind speeds/gusts are also likely in terrain-favoring areas. Anywhere from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountains may experience the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions, necessitating the introduction of Critical fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient will persist across southern California, with some strengthening of the gradient likely by late Wednesday afternoon as another in a series of mid-level troughs overspread the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday). Another day of offshore flow capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread is expected. By afternoon peak heating, widespread sustained 20-30 mph wind speeds are likely, along with RH dropping to at least the 10-15 percent range. Locally higher wind speeds/gusts are also likely in terrain-favoring areas. Anywhere from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountains may experience the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions, necessitating the introduction of Critical fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient will persist across southern California, with some strengthening of the gradient likely by late Wednesday afternoon as another in a series of mid-level troughs overspread the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday). Another day of offshore flow capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread is expected. By afternoon peak heating, widespread sustained 20-30 mph wind speeds are likely, along with RH dropping to at least the 10-15 percent range. Locally higher wind speeds/gusts are also likely in terrain-favoring areas. Anywhere from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountains may experience the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions, necessitating the introduction of Critical fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient will persist across southern California, with some strengthening of the gradient likely by late Wednesday afternoon as another in a series of mid-level troughs overspread the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday). Another day of offshore flow capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread is expected. By afternoon peak heating, widespread sustained 20-30 mph wind speeds are likely, along with RH dropping to at least the 10-15 percent range. Locally higher wind speeds/gusts are also likely in terrain-favoring areas. Anywhere from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountains may experience the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions, necessitating the introduction of Critical fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient will persist across southern California, with some strengthening of the gradient likely by late Wednesday afternoon as another in a series of mid-level troughs overspread the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday). Another day of offshore flow capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread is expected. By afternoon peak heating, widespread sustained 20-30 mph wind speeds are likely, along with RH dropping to at least the 10-15 percent range. Locally higher wind speeds/gusts are also likely in terrain-favoring areas. Anywhere from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountains may experience the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions, necessitating the introduction of Critical fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient will persist across southern California, with some strengthening of the gradient likely by late Wednesday afternoon as another in a series of mid-level troughs overspread the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday). Another day of offshore flow capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread is expected. By afternoon peak heating, widespread sustained 20-30 mph wind speeds are likely, along with RH dropping to at least the 10-15 percent range. Locally higher wind speeds/gusts are also likely in terrain-favoring areas. Anywhere from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountains may experience the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions, necessitating the introduction of Critical fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jan 21, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 21, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more