Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Mosier.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Mosier.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Mosier.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Mosier.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. Relatively dry and stable conditions will prevail across the CONUS today, with no thunderstorms expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. Relatively dry and stable conditions will prevail across the CONUS today, with no thunderstorms expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. Relatively dry and stable conditions will prevail across the CONUS today, with no thunderstorms expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. Relatively dry and stable conditions will prevail across the CONUS today, with no thunderstorms expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. Relatively dry and stable conditions will prevail across the CONUS today, with no thunderstorms expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. Relatively dry and stable conditions will prevail across the CONUS today, with no thunderstorms expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/20/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Thursday/D4 into Friday/D5, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move from central parts of the CONUS toward the East Coast, exiting land late Friday. Although strong winds aloft will overspread the southeastern states, northerly winds are forecast to hold over land. Behind that system, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over the eastern CONUS into Saturday/D6, although more of a zonal flow regime is forecast thereafter. As a result of this possible transition to the pattern, minimal low-level moisture return with low 60s F dewpoints may return to parts of the TX Coast as surface pressure lowers briefly. Beyond the D6 time frame, model spread is large, but the general signal is for the ongoing large trough pattern over the central and eastern CONUS to at least shift northeastward into eastern Canada and the northeastern states, allowing for gradual warming across the South. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Thursday/D4 into Friday/D5, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move from central parts of the CONUS toward the East Coast, exiting land late Friday. Although strong winds aloft will overspread the southeastern states, northerly winds are forecast to hold over land. Behind that system, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over the eastern CONUS into Saturday/D6, although more of a zonal flow regime is forecast thereafter. As a result of this possible transition to the pattern, minimal low-level moisture return with low 60s F dewpoints may return to parts of the TX Coast as surface pressure lowers briefly. Beyond the D6 time frame, model spread is large, but the general signal is for the ongoing large trough pattern over the central and eastern CONUS to at least shift northeastward into eastern Canada and the northeastern states, allowing for gradual warming across the South. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Thursday/D4 into Friday/D5, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move from central parts of the CONUS toward the East Coast, exiting land late Friday. Although strong winds aloft will overspread the southeastern states, northerly winds are forecast to hold over land. Behind that system, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over the eastern CONUS into Saturday/D6, although more of a zonal flow regime is forecast thereafter. As a result of this possible transition to the pattern, minimal low-level moisture return with low 60s F dewpoints may return to parts of the TX Coast as surface pressure lowers briefly. Beyond the D6 time frame, model spread is large, but the general signal is for the ongoing large trough pattern over the central and eastern CONUS to at least shift northeastward into eastern Canada and the northeastern states, allowing for gradual warming across the South. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Thursday/D4 into Friday/D5, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move from central parts of the CONUS toward the East Coast, exiting land late Friday. Although strong winds aloft will overspread the southeastern states, northerly winds are forecast to hold over land. Behind that system, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over the eastern CONUS into Saturday/D6, although more of a zonal flow regime is forecast thereafter. As a result of this possible transition to the pattern, minimal low-level moisture return with low 60s F dewpoints may return to parts of the TX Coast as surface pressure lowers briefly. Beyond the D6 time frame, model spread is large, but the general signal is for the ongoing large trough pattern over the central and eastern CONUS to at least shift northeastward into eastern Canada and the northeastern states, allowing for gradual warming across the South. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Thursday/D4 into Friday/D5, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move from central parts of the CONUS toward the East Coast, exiting land late Friday. Although strong winds aloft will overspread the southeastern states, northerly winds are forecast to hold over land. Behind that system, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over the eastern CONUS into Saturday/D6, although more of a zonal flow regime is forecast thereafter. As a result of this possible transition to the pattern, minimal low-level moisture return with low 60s F dewpoints may return to parts of the TX Coast as surface pressure lowers briefly. Beyond the D6 time frame, model spread is large, but the general signal is for the ongoing large trough pattern over the central and eastern CONUS to at least shift northeastward into eastern Canada and the northeastern states, allowing for gradual warming across the South. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Thursday/D4 into Friday/D5, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move from central parts of the CONUS toward the East Coast, exiting land late Friday. Although strong winds aloft will overspread the southeastern states, northerly winds are forecast to hold over land. Behind that system, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over the eastern CONUS into Saturday/D6, although more of a zonal flow regime is forecast thereafter. As a result of this possible transition to the pattern, minimal low-level moisture return with low 60s F dewpoints may return to parts of the TX Coast as surface pressure lowers briefly. Beyond the D6 time frame, model spread is large, but the general signal is for the ongoing large trough pattern over the central and eastern CONUS to at least shift northeastward into eastern Canada and the northeastern states, allowing for gradual warming across the South. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more