Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southern California - Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... Within a belt of broad northwesterly flow aloft across the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track southeastward across the Great Basin into the southern Rockies/High Plains. At the same time, an upstream midlevel ridge will build over the eastern Pacific and West Coast. This will favor strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West, forcing a strong offshore pressure gradient across southern CA (LAX-DAG pressure gradient around -5 to -7 mb). Given a very dry air mass in place, critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the wind-prone Santa Ana Corridor surrounding the LA Basin, as well as along the mountains/valleys in San Diego County. Current indications are that this event will peak Day 3/Wednesday night into Day 4/Thursday morning. Thereafter, onshore flow should develop across southern CA, reducing the fire-weather threat through the weekend. ...Southwest into the southern Rockies and High Plains... Dry breezy conditions are expected across the region from Day 5/Friday into the weekend ahead of a large-scale trough. However, any fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized owing to marginal fuels -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southern California - Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... Within a belt of broad northwesterly flow aloft across the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track southeastward across the Great Basin into the southern Rockies/High Plains. At the same time, an upstream midlevel ridge will build over the eastern Pacific and West Coast. This will favor strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West, forcing a strong offshore pressure gradient across southern CA (LAX-DAG pressure gradient around -5 to -7 mb). Given a very dry air mass in place, critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the wind-prone Santa Ana Corridor surrounding the LA Basin, as well as along the mountains/valleys in San Diego County. Current indications are that this event will peak Day 3/Wednesday night into Day 4/Thursday morning. Thereafter, onshore flow should develop across southern CA, reducing the fire-weather threat through the weekend. ...Southwest into the southern Rockies and High Plains... Dry breezy conditions are expected across the region from Day 5/Friday into the weekend ahead of a large-scale trough. However, any fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized owing to marginal fuels -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 20 22:06:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Day 2/Tuesday outlook. Most noteworthy, the Extremely Critical highlights along the San Jacinto Mountains were expanded slightly northward toward the San Bernardino Mountains in northern Riverside County. The latest high-resolution guidance is in very good agreement here, depicting a gap-flow enhancement to the winds -- favoring several hours of sustained surface winds around 40 mph (with higher gusts) amid single-digit RH. Localized extremely critical conditions are also possible along the Santa Ana Mountains during the morning/early afternoon hours. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Day 2/Tuesday outlook. Most noteworthy, the Extremely Critical highlights along the San Jacinto Mountains were expanded slightly northward toward the San Bernardino Mountains in northern Riverside County. The latest high-resolution guidance is in very good agreement here, depicting a gap-flow enhancement to the winds -- favoring several hours of sustained surface winds around 40 mph (with higher gusts) amid single-digit RH. Localized extremely critical conditions are also possible along the Santa Ana Mountains during the morning/early afternoon hours. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Day 2/Tuesday outlook. Most noteworthy, the Extremely Critical highlights along the San Jacinto Mountains were expanded slightly northward toward the San Bernardino Mountains in northern Riverside County. The latest high-resolution guidance is in very good agreement here, depicting a gap-flow enhancement to the winds -- favoring several hours of sustained surface winds around 40 mph (with higher gusts) amid single-digit RH. Localized extremely critical conditions are also possible along the Santa Ana Mountains during the morning/early afternoon hours. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Day 2/Tuesday outlook. Most noteworthy, the Extremely Critical highlights along the San Jacinto Mountains were expanded slightly northward toward the San Bernardino Mountains in northern Riverside County. The latest high-resolution guidance is in very good agreement here, depicting a gap-flow enhancement to the winds -- favoring several hours of sustained surface winds around 40 mph (with higher gusts) amid single-digit RH. Localized extremely critical conditions are also possible along the Santa Ana Mountains during the morning/early afternoon hours. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Day 2/Tuesday outlook. Most noteworthy, the Extremely Critical highlights along the San Jacinto Mountains were expanded slightly northward toward the San Bernardino Mountains in northern Riverside County. The latest high-resolution guidance is in very good agreement here, depicting a gap-flow enhancement to the winds -- favoring several hours of sustained surface winds around 40 mph (with higher gusts) amid single-digit RH. Localized extremely critical conditions are also possible along the Santa Ana Mountains during the morning/early afternoon hours. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Day 2/Tuesday outlook. Most noteworthy, the Extremely Critical highlights along the San Jacinto Mountains were expanded slightly northward toward the San Bernardino Mountains in northern Riverside County. The latest high-resolution guidance is in very good agreement here, depicting a gap-flow enhancement to the winds -- favoring several hours of sustained surface winds around 40 mph (with higher gusts) amid single-digit RH. Localized extremely critical conditions are also possible along the Santa Ana Mountains during the morning/early afternoon hours. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Day 2/Tuesday outlook. Most noteworthy, the Extremely Critical highlights along the San Jacinto Mountains were expanded slightly northward toward the San Bernardino Mountains in northern Riverside County. The latest high-resolution guidance is in very good agreement here, depicting a gap-flow enhancement to the winds -- favoring several hours of sustained surface winds around 40 mph (with higher gusts) amid single-digit RH. Localized extremely critical conditions are also possible along the Santa Ana Mountains during the morning/early afternoon hours. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more