Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Thursday/D4 into Friday/D5, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move from central parts of the CONUS toward the East Coast, exiting land late Friday. Although strong winds aloft will overspread the southeastern states, northerly winds are forecast to hold over land. Behind that system, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over the eastern CONUS into Saturday/D6, although more of a zonal flow regime is forecast thereafter. As a result of this possible transition to the pattern, minimal low-level moisture return with low 60s F dewpoints may return to parts of the TX Coast as surface pressure lowers briefly. Beyond the D6 time frame, model spread is large, but the general signal is for the ongoing large trough pattern over the central and eastern CONUS to at least shift northeastward into eastern Canada and the northeastern states, allowing for gradual warming across the South. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Thursday/D4 into Friday/D5, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move from central parts of the CONUS toward the East Coast, exiting land late Friday. Although strong winds aloft will overspread the southeastern states, northerly winds are forecast to hold over land. Behind that system, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over the eastern CONUS into Saturday/D6, although more of a zonal flow regime is forecast thereafter. As a result of this possible transition to the pattern, minimal low-level moisture return with low 60s F dewpoints may return to parts of the TX Coast as surface pressure lowers briefly. Beyond the D6 time frame, model spread is large, but the general signal is for the ongoing large trough pattern over the central and eastern CONUS to at least shift northeastward into eastern Canada and the northeastern states, allowing for gradual warming across the South. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Thursday/D4 into Friday/D5, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move from central parts of the CONUS toward the East Coast, exiting land late Friday. Although strong winds aloft will overspread the southeastern states, northerly winds are forecast to hold over land. Behind that system, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over the eastern CONUS into Saturday/D6, although more of a zonal flow regime is forecast thereafter. As a result of this possible transition to the pattern, minimal low-level moisture return with low 60s F dewpoints may return to parts of the TX Coast as surface pressure lowers briefly. Beyond the D6 time frame, model spread is large, but the general signal is for the ongoing large trough pattern over the central and eastern CONUS to at least shift northeastward into eastern Canada and the northeastern states, allowing for gradual warming across the South. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Thursday/D4 into Friday/D5, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move from central parts of the CONUS toward the East Coast, exiting land late Friday. Although strong winds aloft will overspread the southeastern states, northerly winds are forecast to hold over land. Behind that system, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over the eastern CONUS into Saturday/D6, although more of a zonal flow regime is forecast thereafter. As a result of this possible transition to the pattern, minimal low-level moisture return with low 60s F dewpoints may return to parts of the TX Coast as surface pressure lowers briefly. Beyond the D6 time frame, model spread is large, but the general signal is for the ongoing large trough pattern over the central and eastern CONUS to at least shift northeastward into eastern Canada and the northeastern states, allowing for gradual warming across the South. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Thursday/D4 into Friday/D5, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move from central parts of the CONUS toward the East Coast, exiting land late Friday. Although strong winds aloft will overspread the southeastern states, northerly winds are forecast to hold over land. Behind that system, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over the eastern CONUS into Saturday/D6, although more of a zonal flow regime is forecast thereafter. As a result of this possible transition to the pattern, minimal low-level moisture return with low 60s F dewpoints may return to parts of the TX Coast as surface pressure lowers briefly. Beyond the D6 time frame, model spread is large, but the general signal is for the ongoing large trough pattern over the central and eastern CONUS to at least shift northeastward into eastern Canada and the northeastern states, allowing for gradual warming across the South. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A strong Santa Ana wind event beginning Monday afternoon will persist well into Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in widespread Critical and Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions across much of Southern California. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for the San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Susana Mountains... Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions will persist from the Day 1 outlook period (Mon) well into Day 2 (Tues). Sustained winds of 40-45 MPH (gusting 70-100 MPH on mountains, 50-80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions) with single-digit relative humidity values as low as 2%-5% will be ongoing at the start of the period, subsiding by late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. For more details, see the current Day 1 fire-weather outlook. ...Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions for portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the western San Jacinto Mountains... Confidence has increased in strong, dry offshore flow across far Southern California, particularly portions of the eastern San Diego foothills into the San Jacinto Mountains. Recent 00Z HREF guidance shows ensemble mean sustained surface winds as high as 50-55 MPH, with the ensemble maximum as high as 60 MPH and gusts as high as 80 MPH. Coupled with single-digit relative humidities, this will result in several hours of Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread, subsiding by late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... While most of the CONUS is dominated by cold air and high pressure, a strong, positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southward across California, with a highly amplified mid-level Pacific ridge following behind it. As the trough axis reaches southern California Monday afternoon, intensifying surface pressure gradients will result in the development of strong Santa Ana winds. The 00Z HREF guidance and global ensembles continue to forecast strong LAX->DAG pressure gradients ranging from -8 mb to -11 mb, with wind speeds trending upward to 40-45 MPH sustained (gusting 70 - 100 MPH on the mountains, 50 - 80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions). In addition to the upward trend in wind speed and gust forecasts, relative humidity values have trended significantly drier, with values as low as 2%-5%. These Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions, supporting rapid wildfire onset and spread, will begin Monday afternoon and reach peak intensity Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The area of greatest risk lies from the San Gabriel Mountains westward into the Santa Monica Mountains, the Malibu Coast, and the Santa Susana Mountains. Elsewhere, Critical fire-weather conditions extend southward to the U.S./Mexico border, where strong (and critically dry) offshore winds will persist overnight into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... While most of the CONUS is dominated by cold air and high pressure, a strong, positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southward across California, with a highly amplified mid-level Pacific ridge following behind it. As the trough axis reaches southern California Monday afternoon, intensifying surface pressure gradients will result in the development of strong Santa Ana winds. The 00Z HREF guidance and global ensembles continue to forecast strong LAX->DAG pressure gradients ranging from -8 mb to -11 mb, with wind speeds trending upward to 40-45 MPH sustained (gusting 70 - 100 MPH on the mountains, 50 - 80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions). In addition to the upward trend in wind speed and gust forecasts, relative humidity values have trended significantly drier, with values as low as 2%-5%. These Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions, supporting rapid wildfire onset and spread, will begin Monday afternoon and reach peak intensity Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The area of greatest risk lies from the San Gabriel Mountains westward into the Santa Monica Mountains, the Malibu Coast, and the Santa Susana Mountains. Elsewhere, Critical fire-weather conditions extend southward to the U.S./Mexico border, where strong (and critically dry) offshore winds will persist overnight into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... While most of the CONUS is dominated by cold air and high pressure, a strong, positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southward across California, with a highly amplified mid-level Pacific ridge following behind it. As the trough axis reaches southern California Monday afternoon, intensifying surface pressure gradients will result in the development of strong Santa Ana winds. The 00Z HREF guidance and global ensembles continue to forecast strong LAX->DAG pressure gradients ranging from -8 mb to -11 mb, with wind speeds trending upward to 40-45 MPH sustained (gusting 70 - 100 MPH on the mountains, 50 - 80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions). In addition to the upward trend in wind speed and gust forecasts, relative humidity values have trended significantly drier, with values as low as 2%-5%. These Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions, supporting rapid wildfire onset and spread, will begin Monday afternoon and reach peak intensity Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The area of greatest risk lies from the San Gabriel Mountains westward into the Santa Monica Mountains, the Malibu Coast, and the Santa Susana Mountains. Elsewhere, Critical fire-weather conditions extend southward to the U.S./Mexico border, where strong (and critically dry) offshore winds will persist overnight into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... While most of the CONUS is dominated by cold air and high pressure, a strong, positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southward across California, with a highly amplified mid-level Pacific ridge following behind it. As the trough axis reaches southern California Monday afternoon, intensifying surface pressure gradients will result in the development of strong Santa Ana winds. The 00Z HREF guidance and global ensembles continue to forecast strong LAX->DAG pressure gradients ranging from -8 mb to -11 mb, with wind speeds trending upward to 40-45 MPH sustained (gusting 70 - 100 MPH on the mountains, 50 - 80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions). In addition to the upward trend in wind speed and gust forecasts, relative humidity values have trended significantly drier, with values as low as 2%-5%. These Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions, supporting rapid wildfire onset and spread, will begin Monday afternoon and reach peak intensity Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The area of greatest risk lies from the San Gabriel Mountains westward into the Santa Monica Mountains, the Malibu Coast, and the Santa Susana Mountains. Elsewhere, Critical fire-weather conditions extend southward to the U.S./Mexico border, where strong (and critically dry) offshore winds will persist overnight into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... While most of the CONUS is dominated by cold air and high pressure, a strong, positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southward across California, with a highly amplified mid-level Pacific ridge following behind it. As the trough axis reaches southern California Monday afternoon, intensifying surface pressure gradients will result in the development of strong Santa Ana winds. The 00Z HREF guidance and global ensembles continue to forecast strong LAX->DAG pressure gradients ranging from -8 mb to -11 mb, with wind speeds trending upward to 40-45 MPH sustained (gusting 70 - 100 MPH on the mountains, 50 - 80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions). In addition to the upward trend in wind speed and gust forecasts, relative humidity values have trended significantly drier, with values as low as 2%-5%. These Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions, supporting rapid wildfire onset and spread, will begin Monday afternoon and reach peak intensity Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The area of greatest risk lies from the San Gabriel Mountains westward into the Santa Monica Mountains, the Malibu Coast, and the Santa Susana Mountains. Elsewhere, Critical fire-weather conditions extend southward to the U.S./Mexico border, where strong (and critically dry) offshore winds will persist overnight into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... While most of the CONUS is dominated by cold air and high pressure, a strong, positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southward across California, with a highly amplified mid-level Pacific ridge following behind it. As the trough axis reaches southern California Monday afternoon, intensifying surface pressure gradients will result in the development of strong Santa Ana winds. The 00Z HREF guidance and global ensembles continue to forecast strong LAX->DAG pressure gradients ranging from -8 mb to -11 mb, with wind speeds trending upward to 40-45 MPH sustained (gusting 70 - 100 MPH on the mountains, 50 - 80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions). In addition to the upward trend in wind speed and gust forecasts, relative humidity values have trended significantly drier, with values as low as 2%-5%. These Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions, supporting rapid wildfire onset and spread, will begin Monday afternoon and reach peak intensity Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The area of greatest risk lies from the San Gabriel Mountains westward into the Santa Monica Mountains, the Malibu Coast, and the Santa Susana Mountains. Elsewhere, Critical fire-weather conditions extend southward to the U.S./Mexico border, where strong (and critically dry) offshore winds will persist overnight into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS... INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... While most of the CONUS is dominated by cold air and high pressure, a strong, positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southward across California, with a highly amplified mid-level Pacific ridge following behind it. As the trough axis reaches southern California Monday afternoon, intensifying surface pressure gradients will result in the development of strong Santa Ana winds. The 00Z HREF guidance and global ensembles continue to forecast strong LAX->DAG pressure gradients ranging from -8 mb to -11 mb, with wind speeds trending upward to 40-45 MPH sustained (gusting 70 - 100 MPH on the mountains, 50 - 80 MPH in the valleys/coastal regions). In addition to the upward trend in wind speed and gust forecasts, relative humidity values have trended significantly drier, with values as low as 2%-5%. These Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions, supporting rapid wildfire onset and spread, will begin Monday afternoon and reach peak intensity Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The area of greatest risk lies from the San Gabriel Mountains westward into the Santa Monica Mountains, the Malibu Coast, and the Santa Susana Mountains. Elsewhere, Critical fire-weather conditions extend southward to the U.S./Mexico border, where strong (and critically dry) offshore winds will persist overnight into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0040 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR COASTAL MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0040 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0923 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Areas affected...Coastal Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 200323Z - 200930Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall with rates at or exceeding 1"/hour are expected across coastal Maine through 09Z as a surface cyclone tracks northeastward off the coast of New England. DISCUSSION...As a rapidly deepening surface low tracks northeastward off the coast of New England, strong isentropic ascent and lift in the dendritic growth zone will result in heavy snowfall across portions of coastal Maine. Short-term guidance from the 00Z HREF, along with surface pressure falls in recent observations, have increased confidence that some areas on the coast could meet or exceed 1"/hour snowfall rates. The greatest chance for heavy snowfall rates will be north and east of Rockland, and the combination of strong winds and heavy snowfall rates will result in low visibility conditions (at or below 0.5 mi). These conditions are expected to subside in southern Maine starting around 06Z, and exiting northeast Maine by 08-09Z. ..Halbert.. 01/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 44217093 44517034 44936946 45416838 45336758 45086701 44776675 44396714 44026793 43726904 43606987 43147044 43007066 43197106 43487131 44027122 44217093 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper trough will exit the East Coast early in the day, as another positive-tilt trough moves into the central CONUS. This trough will extend roughly from the upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist along the West Coast, with additional disturbances diving south into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a stable air mass in terms of convection will exist due to high pressure. A weak surface low may form from the FL Straits toward the Bahamas, avoiding the FL Peninsula where the air mass will remain stable. As such, little to no lightning activity is forecast across the USA on Wednesday due to the stable air mass over land. ..Jewell.. 01/20/2025 Read more