Aggregator

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the West will shift east toward the central/southern Rockies on Tuesday. As this occurs, several shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow from the southern Plains to the Lower MS and TN Valleys. Vertically veering wind profiles that typically would support organized convection and supercells will be present. However, most forecast guidance indicates deeper boundary-layer moisture will largely remain confined to coastal vicinity from southeast TX into LA. Some northward advection of modest boundary-layer moisture across the Lower MS Valley ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front, is possible, but parcels will likely not be able to take advantage of this moisture owing to an EML/warm layer between 925-850 mb, precluding much in the way of surface-based instability. Midlevel lapse rates also will remain modest, though weak MUCAPE (generally less than 800 J/kg) will be present. Warm advection through the period will result in isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms, much of which are likely to occur to the cool side of the surface boundary. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce small/sub-severe hail, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited due to the overall poor thermodynamic conditions. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more