Aggregator

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Alabama. ...Synopsis... As the shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex moves northeastward through the day on Wednesday, moisture return from the Gulf will continue ahead of a cold front that will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Sabine Valley into far western Alabama... Precipitation, likely north of the surface boundary, will be ongoing Wednesday morning. This will have impact on both frontal position and the exact degree of destabilization that can occur later in the day. As the trough moves northeast, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move northward into much of Louisiana into central Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible near the Gulf Coast. As a surface low develops near the ArkLaTex late in the morning, storm development in the warm sector is possible near the Sabine Valley. Storms are expected to be at least near surface based. Storm development along the front is likely to continue through the period given strong low-level warm advection. This activity may occasionally be strong to severe given the 50-60 kts of effective shear. However, front-parallel shear will lead to storm interactions and little surge in the line. The front will eventually move southeastward, but this will not occur until the evening and overnight periods. Buoyancy will decrease with northward and eastward extent, but stronger forcing from the shortwave may compensate. Moisture advection should keep inhibition minimal even into the evening. The strong low-level winds and enlarged hodographs would suggest some threat of damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. The linear forcing from the front should limit the tornado threat. Development of storms in the open warm sector does not appear probable given the warmer layers aloft and the arrival of mid-level cooling during th early/mid evening. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Alabama. ...Synopsis... As the shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex moves northeastward through the day on Wednesday, moisture return from the Gulf will continue ahead of a cold front that will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Sabine Valley into far western Alabama... Precipitation, likely north of the surface boundary, will be ongoing Wednesday morning. This will have impact on both frontal position and the exact degree of destabilization that can occur later in the day. As the trough moves northeast, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move northward into much of Louisiana into central Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible near the Gulf Coast. As a surface low develops near the ArkLaTex late in the morning, storm development in the warm sector is possible near the Sabine Valley. Storms are expected to be at least near surface based. Storm development along the front is likely to continue through the period given strong low-level warm advection. This activity may occasionally be strong to severe given the 50-60 kts of effective shear. However, front-parallel shear will lead to storm interactions and little surge in the line. The front will eventually move southeastward, but this will not occur until the evening and overnight periods. Buoyancy will decrease with northward and eastward extent, but stronger forcing from the shortwave may compensate. Moisture advection should keep inhibition minimal even into the evening. The strong low-level winds and enlarged hodographs would suggest some threat of damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. The linear forcing from the front should limit the tornado threat. Development of storms in the open warm sector does not appear probable given the warmer layers aloft and the arrival of mid-level cooling during th early/mid evening. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Alabama. ...Synopsis... As the shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex moves northeastward through the day on Wednesday, moisture return from the Gulf will continue ahead of a cold front that will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Sabine Valley into far western Alabama... Precipitation, likely north of the surface boundary, will be ongoing Wednesday morning. This will have impact on both frontal position and the exact degree of destabilization that can occur later in the day. As the trough moves northeast, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move northward into much of Louisiana into central Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible near the Gulf Coast. As a surface low develops near the ArkLaTex late in the morning, storm development in the warm sector is possible near the Sabine Valley. Storms are expected to be at least near surface based. Storm development along the front is likely to continue through the period given strong low-level warm advection. This activity may occasionally be strong to severe given the 50-60 kts of effective shear. However, front-parallel shear will lead to storm interactions and little surge in the line. The front will eventually move southeastward, but this will not occur until the evening and overnight periods. Buoyancy will decrease with northward and eastward extent, but stronger forcing from the shortwave may compensate. Moisture advection should keep inhibition minimal even into the evening. The strong low-level winds and enlarged hodographs would suggest some threat of damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. The linear forcing from the front should limit the tornado threat. Development of storms in the open warm sector does not appear probable given the warmer layers aloft and the arrival of mid-level cooling during th early/mid evening. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Alabama. ...Synopsis... As the shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex moves northeastward through the day on Wednesday, moisture return from the Gulf will continue ahead of a cold front that will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Sabine Valley into far western Alabama... Precipitation, likely north of the surface boundary, will be ongoing Wednesday morning. This will have impact on both frontal position and the exact degree of destabilization that can occur later in the day. As the trough moves northeast, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move northward into much of Louisiana into central Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible near the Gulf Coast. As a surface low develops near the ArkLaTex late in the morning, storm development in the warm sector is possible near the Sabine Valley. Storms are expected to be at least near surface based. Storm development along the front is likely to continue through the period given strong low-level warm advection. This activity may occasionally be strong to severe given the 50-60 kts of effective shear. However, front-parallel shear will lead to storm interactions and little surge in the line. The front will eventually move southeastward, but this will not occur until the evening and overnight periods. Buoyancy will decrease with northward and eastward extent, but stronger forcing from the shortwave may compensate. Moisture advection should keep inhibition minimal even into the evening. The strong low-level winds and enlarged hodographs would suggest some threat of damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. The linear forcing from the front should limit the tornado threat. Development of storms in the open warm sector does not appear probable given the warmer layers aloft and the arrival of mid-level cooling during th early/mid evening. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley... Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary. This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley... Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary. This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley... Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary. This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley... Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary. This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

The drought status has intensified in parts of Massachusetts. On Friday, Feb. 7, central and northeastern Massachusetts were classified as being in a Level 3 critical drought, while southeastern Massachusetts and the Cape and Islands were categorized as being in a Level 2 significant drought. The Connecticut River Valley region remained in a significant drought, while the westernmost end of Western Massachusetts also continued to be in a Level 1 mild drought. MassLive (Boston, Mass.), Feb 7, 2025

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more