Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas. ...01z Update... Synoptic front is currently draped along the SC/NC border, arcing west into northern GA. Surface temperatures warmed into the lower 70s across the warm sector which have allowed 0-3km lapse rates to steepen near the wind shift, effectively weakening inhibition, though nocturnal cooling should begin to stabilize the boundary layer. While water-vapor imagery does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is approaching this region, westerly LLJ currently extends across northern AL/GA. This stronger flow should translate into the frontal zone later this evening which could aid convective development, and possibly a few thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas. ...01z Update... Synoptic front is currently draped along the SC/NC border, arcing west into northern GA. Surface temperatures warmed into the lower 70s across the warm sector which have allowed 0-3km lapse rates to steepen near the wind shift, effectively weakening inhibition, though nocturnal cooling should begin to stabilize the boundary layer. While water-vapor imagery does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is approaching this region, westerly LLJ currently extends across northern AL/GA. This stronger flow should translate into the frontal zone later this evening which could aid convective development, and possibly a few thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas. ...01z Update... Synoptic front is currently draped along the SC/NC border, arcing west into northern GA. Surface temperatures warmed into the lower 70s across the warm sector which have allowed 0-3km lapse rates to steepen near the wind shift, effectively weakening inhibition, though nocturnal cooling should begin to stabilize the boundary layer. While water-vapor imagery does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is approaching this region, westerly LLJ currently extends across northern AL/GA. This stronger flow should translate into the frontal zone later this evening which could aid convective development, and possibly a few thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 02/10/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 9 22:04:01 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 9 22:04:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more