Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Negligible thunderstorm potential should persist across much of the CONUS tonight. Isolated low-topped showers progressing into southwest FL should diminish over the next few hours as a weakly convergent cold front moves south. With scant buoyancy and pronounced dryness/moist-adiabatic lapse rates above 750 mb (as observed by the 00Z MFL/KEY soundings), the prospects for deep convection capable of lightning appear slim. ..Grams.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Negligible thunderstorm potential should persist across much of the CONUS tonight. Isolated low-topped showers progressing into southwest FL should diminish over the next few hours as a weakly convergent cold front moves south. With scant buoyancy and pronounced dryness/moist-adiabatic lapse rates above 750 mb (as observed by the 00Z MFL/KEY soundings), the prospects for deep convection capable of lightning appear slim. ..Grams.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Negligible thunderstorm potential should persist across much of the CONUS tonight. Isolated low-topped showers progressing into southwest FL should diminish over the next few hours as a weakly convergent cold front moves south. With scant buoyancy and pronounced dryness/moist-adiabatic lapse rates above 750 mb (as observed by the 00Z MFL/KEY soundings), the prospects for deep convection capable of lightning appear slim. ..Grams.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Negligible thunderstorm potential should persist across much of the CONUS tonight. Isolated low-topped showers progressing into southwest FL should diminish over the next few hours as a weakly convergent cold front moves south. With scant buoyancy and pronounced dryness/moist-adiabatic lapse rates above 750 mb (as observed by the 00Z MFL/KEY soundings), the prospects for deep convection capable of lightning appear slim. ..Grams.. 02/17/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 16 22:14:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 16 22:14:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more