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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more