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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Friday. Gulf moisture will remain offshore, and the cold/stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Friday. Gulf moisture will remain offshore, and the cold/stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Friday. Gulf moisture will remain offshore, and the cold/stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Friday. Gulf moisture will remain offshore, and the cold/stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Friday. Gulf moisture will remain offshore, and the cold/stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and a cold, Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. Stable conditions and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture behind a cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic coast will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and a cold, Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. Stable conditions and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture behind a cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic coast will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and a cold, Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. Stable conditions and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture behind a cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic coast will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and a cold, Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. Stable conditions and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture behind a cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic coast will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and a cold, Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. Stable conditions and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture behind a cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic coast will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today through tonight. ...West-central coast of FL Peninsula... An organized QLCS is expected to evolve just off the MS River Delta over the north-central Gulf by 12Z this morning. 00Z HREF guidance is consistent in depicting this QLCS moving southeastward along the northern periphery of the Loop Current, with a weakening trend as it progresses across the cooler waters of the northeast Gulf. Remnants of this MCS should reach the west coast of the FL Peninsula, roughly centered on the Tampa Bay area at peak heating in the afternoon. Despite favorable time of day, poor lapse rates above a shallow boundary layer and modest large-scale ascent owing to dampening of the parent low-amplitude shortwave trough should help mitigate an appreciable severe risk. But with an increase in low-level flow accompanying the decaying MCS, locally strong gusts along the immediate coast are possible. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today through tonight. ...West-central coast of FL Peninsula... An organized QLCS is expected to evolve just off the MS River Delta over the north-central Gulf by 12Z this morning. 00Z HREF guidance is consistent in depicting this QLCS moving southeastward along the northern periphery of the Loop Current, with a weakening trend as it progresses across the cooler waters of the northeast Gulf. Remnants of this MCS should reach the west coast of the FL Peninsula, roughly centered on the Tampa Bay area at peak heating in the afternoon. Despite favorable time of day, poor lapse rates above a shallow boundary layer and modest large-scale ascent owing to dampening of the parent low-amplitude shortwave trough should help mitigate an appreciable severe risk. But with an increase in low-level flow accompanying the decaying MCS, locally strong gusts along the immediate coast are possible. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today through tonight. ...West-central coast of FL Peninsula... An organized QLCS is expected to evolve just off the MS River Delta over the north-central Gulf by 12Z this morning. 00Z HREF guidance is consistent in depicting this QLCS moving southeastward along the northern periphery of the Loop Current, with a weakening trend as it progresses across the cooler waters of the northeast Gulf. Remnants of this MCS should reach the west coast of the FL Peninsula, roughly centered on the Tampa Bay area at peak heating in the afternoon. Despite favorable time of day, poor lapse rates above a shallow boundary layer and modest large-scale ascent owing to dampening of the parent low-amplitude shortwave trough should help mitigate an appreciable severe risk. But with an increase in low-level flow accompanying the decaying MCS, locally strong gusts along the immediate coast are possible. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today through tonight. ...West-central coast of FL Peninsula... An organized QLCS is expected to evolve just off the MS River Delta over the north-central Gulf by 12Z this morning. 00Z HREF guidance is consistent in depicting this QLCS moving southeastward along the northern periphery of the Loop Current, with a weakening trend as it progresses across the cooler waters of the northeast Gulf. Remnants of this MCS should reach the west coast of the FL Peninsula, roughly centered on the Tampa Bay area at peak heating in the afternoon. Despite favorable time of day, poor lapse rates above a shallow boundary layer and modest large-scale ascent owing to dampening of the parent low-amplitude shortwave trough should help mitigate an appreciable severe risk. But with an increase in low-level flow accompanying the decaying MCS, locally strong gusts along the immediate coast are possible. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today through tonight. ...West-central coast of FL Peninsula... An organized QLCS is expected to evolve just off the MS River Delta over the north-central Gulf by 12Z this morning. 00Z HREF guidance is consistent in depicting this QLCS moving southeastward along the northern periphery of the Loop Current, with a weakening trend as it progresses across the cooler waters of the northeast Gulf. Remnants of this MCS should reach the west coast of the FL Peninsula, roughly centered on the Tampa Bay area at peak heating in the afternoon. Despite favorable time of day, poor lapse rates above a shallow boundary layer and modest large-scale ascent owing to dampening of the parent low-amplitude shortwave trough should help mitigate an appreciable severe risk. But with an increase in low-level flow accompanying the decaying MCS, locally strong gusts along the immediate coast are possible. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today through tonight. ...West-central coast of FL Peninsula... An organized QLCS is expected to evolve just off the MS River Delta over the north-central Gulf by 12Z this morning. 00Z HREF guidance is consistent in depicting this QLCS moving southeastward along the northern periphery of the Loop Current, with a weakening trend as it progresses across the cooler waters of the northeast Gulf. Remnants of this MCS should reach the west coast of the FL Peninsula, roughly centered on the Tampa Bay area at peak heating in the afternoon. Despite favorable time of day, poor lapse rates above a shallow boundary layer and modest large-scale ascent owing to dampening of the parent low-amplitude shortwave trough should help mitigate an appreciable severe risk. But with an increase in low-level flow accompanying the decaying MCS, locally strong gusts along the immediate coast are possible. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/19/2025 Read more

MD 0116 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...Southeastern Missouri...Western Tennessee...Western Kentucky...Southern Illinois Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 190001Z - 190300Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will gradually increase across portions of western Kentucky and western Tennessee through the evening. Rates will decrease through time, though some moderate to heavy snowfall rates up to 1"/hr will be possible in heavier bands. DISCUSSION...Radar analysis shows the gradual shift of snowfall into portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee this evening. Moderate to heavy snowfall is ongoing across southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, where a persistent heavy band extends, driven by 700-850 mb frontogenesis and isentropic ascent. This enhancement will gradually shift eastward through time, with potential for a few heavier bands with occasional 1"/hr rates. HREF ensemble guidance shows a down trend in rates overall through the evening, with a transition to mostly light snow for portions of western Tennessee. Confidence is highest in potential for better rates across northwestern Kentucky into southern Illinois. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK... LAT...LON 36199081 37389042 37878993 38068914 37978804 37858767 37538701 37378687 36828672 36458661 35628715 35118774 35078876 35158957 35399041 35479063 35929094 36109086 36199081 Read more