Aggregator

MD 0122 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwest OK and western north TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15... Valid 022145Z - 022315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado will continue through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...An arc of thunderstorms is ongoing late this afternoon from southwest OK into western north TX, immediately in advance of a compact cyclone moving across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. Earlier small supercells have evolved into a more disorganized linear structure, and limited buoyancy (with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less) may continue to limit the magnitude of the severe threat. However, low-level and deep-layer shear remain supportive of organized convection, and redevelopment of a small supercell or two and/or small bowing segments remain possible as the compact cyclone moves across the region through the late afternoon. Despite the meager buoyancy, cold temperatures aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest cells. Localized strong to severe gusts will also be possible, especially if any small bowing segments can materialize, or if storms can develop farther south into a somewhat warmer and more unstable airmass across western north TX. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if a supercell can favorably interact with low-level vorticity near a baroclinic zone located near and just south of the Red River. Stronger convection may eventually spread eastward into a larger portion of southwest OK and western north TX. While instability will generally weaken with eastward extent, strong ascent and favorable deep-layer shear may continue to support occasionally organized convection through late afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 35469994 35589956 35499890 35069856 34039839 33519850 33299872 33259906 33249944 33349971 33639987 34109984 34429980 35469994 Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ABI TO 20 WSW LTS TO 35 NW LTS TO 50 W CSM. ..LEITMAN..03/02/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-031-033-055-065-075-141-149-022340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM COMANCHE COTTON GREER JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-077-485-487-022340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0121 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and western north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021914Z - 022145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may develop this afternoon, with a threat of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating is underway across parts of the TX South Plains and southeast TX Panhandle, in the wake of elevated convection that is moving into southwest OK and western north TX. Differential heating is sharpening a low-level baroclinic zone extending east-southeast of a deep-layer cyclone moving out of east-central New Mexico. Convective initiation is underway near the dryline east/southeast of Lubbock, and additional thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as strong ascent overspreads the region. Low-level moisture remains rather limited, but mid/upper 40s F dewpoints (locally higher) will be sufficient to support MLCAPE increasing to near 500 J/kg with continued heating and cold temperatures aloft. Deep-layer shear is more than sufficient for organized convection, with the relatively limited buoyancy providing the primary uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe threat this afternoon. However, given the strong forcing, an arc of convection with one or more small embedded supercells may develop with time this afternoon and move northeastward, posing a risk of hail and localized strong to severe gusts. Some threat for a tornado may also evolve with time, especially with any supercells in the vicinity of the warm-frontal zone, where locally higher dewpoints (in the low 50s F) and a relatively favorable overlap of low-level instability and vorticity will reside. While the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain, watch issuance is possible if development of multiple severe storms appears imminent. ..Dean/Gleason.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 32870047 33140052 33540062 33930086 34400142 34460141 35030124 35160074 35159978 34799910 33649894 33299957 33129995 32870047 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122 ..DEAN..03/02/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-031-033-055-057-065-075-141-149-022240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM COMANCHE COTTON GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-022240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0015 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more