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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms have weakened considerably across the western North Texas/western Oklahoma vicinity over the past couple of hours. Storms -- and the associated upper low -- will continue moving east of the primary axis of instability, which will support a continued decrease in convective intensity. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will continue across portions of California and Nevada, but severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms have weakened considerably across the western North Texas/western Oklahoma vicinity over the past couple of hours. Storms -- and the associated upper low -- will continue moving east of the primary axis of instability, which will support a continued decrease in convective intensity. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will continue across portions of California and Nevada, but severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms have weakened considerably across the western North Texas/western Oklahoma vicinity over the past couple of hours. Storms -- and the associated upper low -- will continue moving east of the primary axis of instability, which will support a continued decrease in convective intensity. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will continue across portions of California and Nevada, but severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

MD 0123 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of western OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15... Valid 022334Z - 030030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15 continues. SUMMARY...Severe potential has rapidly diminished late this afternoon across western Oklahoma. A new watch downstream from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15 is not expected. DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to weaken with north and east extent across southwest/western OK this afternoon. As thunderstorm continue to shift northeast toward central OK, low-level moisture will rapidly decrease in tandem with weakening midlevel lapse rates. Together this will result in meager elevated instability insufficient for maintaining deep updrafts supporting severe convection. As such, a downstream watch is not expected and WW 15 will either be cancelled early or allowed to expire as scheduled at 7pm CST. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 35869900 35899823 35429774 34919794 34749832 34729871 34879918 35439931 35869900 Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MWL TO 15 ESE LTS TO 20 NW CSM. ..LEITMAN..03/02/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC031-033-075-141-149-030040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COMANCHE COTTON KIOWA TILLMAN WASHITA TXC077-485-030040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 15 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 022010Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 15 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 700 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and early evening while posing a threat for large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter and 60-70 mph winds. Although low-level moisture remains limited, a tornado or two may also occur with any sustained supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Clinton OK to 50 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0123 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of western OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15... Valid 022334Z - 030030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15 continues. SUMMARY...Severe potential has rapidly diminished late this afternoon across western Oklahoma. A new watch downstream from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15 is not expected. DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to weaken with north and east extent across southwest/western OK this afternoon. As thunderstorm continue to shift northeast toward central OK, low-level moisture will rapidly decrease in tandem with weakening midlevel lapse rates. Together this will result in meager elevated instability insufficient for maintaining deep updrafts supporting severe convection. As such, a downstream watch is not expected and WW 15 will either be cancelled early or allowed to expire as scheduled at 7pm CST. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 35869900 35899823 35429774 34919794 34749832 34729871 34879918 35439931 35869900 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 2 23:18:02 UTC 2025.

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MWL TO 15 ESE LTS TO 20 NW CSM. ..LEITMAN..03/02/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC031-033-075-141-149-030040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COMANCHE COTTON KIOWA TILLMAN WASHITA TXC077-485-030040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 15 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 022010Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 15 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 700 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and early evening while posing a threat for large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter and 60-70 mph winds. Although low-level moisture remains limited, a tornado or two may also occur with any sustained supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Clinton OK to 50 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Gleason Read more