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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone will migrate from the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Models indicate that this may include, south to southwesterly flow on the order of 50-90+ kt within a moistening warm sector, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge, and perhaps ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Although more favorable low-level moisture return from the Gulf may become cut off by early Wednesday, moistening may be augmented somewhat by a developing return flow off a modifying boundary-layer offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Models still indicate that this may only become supportive of weak destabilization. However, given the strength of the wind fields and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern through Mid Atlantic... Models indicate that surface dew points may increase into the 60s F in a corridor across the Carolinas through Virginia during the day. Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest that this might occur across parts of the Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain prior to the arrival of a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States. Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be rather weak, weak near-surface destabilization might become sufficient to support a risk for tornadoes and/or damaging straight line wind gusts, given forecast very large, clockwise curved low-level hodographs. In the wake of this initial band of convection, beneath a developing dry slot, northward moisture advection and insolation to the lee of the Blue Ridge may contribute to modest destabilization by late Wednesday afternoon. It appears that this will be aided by the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling spreading to the east of the Appalachians, and accompanied by increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs may become more modest by this time as the stronger low-level jet core spreads offshore, the environment may still become conducive to supercells with potential to produce severe wind, hail and perhaps a tornado. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone will migrate from the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Models indicate that this may include, south to southwesterly flow on the order of 50-90+ kt within a moistening warm sector, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge, and perhaps ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Although more favorable low-level moisture return from the Gulf may become cut off by early Wednesday, moistening may be augmented somewhat by a developing return flow off a modifying boundary-layer offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Models still indicate that this may only become supportive of weak destabilization. However, given the strength of the wind fields and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern through Mid Atlantic... Models indicate that surface dew points may increase into the 60s F in a corridor across the Carolinas through Virginia during the day. Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest that this might occur across parts of the Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain prior to the arrival of a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States. Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be rather weak, weak near-surface destabilization might become sufficient to support a risk for tornadoes and/or damaging straight line wind gusts, given forecast very large, clockwise curved low-level hodographs. In the wake of this initial band of convection, beneath a developing dry slot, northward moisture advection and insolation to the lee of the Blue Ridge may contribute to modest destabilization by late Wednesday afternoon. It appears that this will be aided by the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling spreading to the east of the Appalachians, and accompanied by increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs may become more modest by this time as the stronger low-level jet core spreads offshore, the environment may still become conducive to supercells with potential to produce severe wind, hail and perhaps a tornado. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone will migrate from the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Models indicate that this may include, south to southwesterly flow on the order of 50-90+ kt within a moistening warm sector, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge, and perhaps ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Although more favorable low-level moisture return from the Gulf may become cut off by early Wednesday, moistening may be augmented somewhat by a developing return flow off a modifying boundary-layer offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Models still indicate that this may only become supportive of weak destabilization. However, given the strength of the wind fields and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern through Mid Atlantic... Models indicate that surface dew points may increase into the 60s F in a corridor across the Carolinas through Virginia during the day. Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest that this might occur across parts of the Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain prior to the arrival of a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States. Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be rather weak, weak near-surface destabilization might become sufficient to support a risk for tornadoes and/or damaging straight line wind gusts, given forecast very large, clockwise curved low-level hodographs. In the wake of this initial band of convection, beneath a developing dry slot, northward moisture advection and insolation to the lee of the Blue Ridge may contribute to modest destabilization by late Wednesday afternoon. It appears that this will be aided by the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling spreading to the east of the Appalachians, and accompanied by increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs may become more modest by this time as the stronger low-level jet core spreads offshore, the environment may still become conducive to supercells with potential to produce severe wind, hail and perhaps a tornado. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone will migrate from the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Models indicate that this may include, south to southwesterly flow on the order of 50-90+ kt within a moistening warm sector, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge, and perhaps ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Although more favorable low-level moisture return from the Gulf may become cut off by early Wednesday, moistening may be augmented somewhat by a developing return flow off a modifying boundary-layer offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Models still indicate that this may only become supportive of weak destabilization. However, given the strength of the wind fields and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern through Mid Atlantic... Models indicate that surface dew points may increase into the 60s F in a corridor across the Carolinas through Virginia during the day. Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest that this might occur across parts of the Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain prior to the arrival of a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States. Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be rather weak, weak near-surface destabilization might become sufficient to support a risk for tornadoes and/or damaging straight line wind gusts, given forecast very large, clockwise curved low-level hodographs. In the wake of this initial band of convection, beneath a developing dry slot, northward moisture advection and insolation to the lee of the Blue Ridge may contribute to modest destabilization by late Wednesday afternoon. It appears that this will be aided by the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling spreading to the east of the Appalachians, and accompanied by increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs may become more modest by this time as the stronger low-level jet core spreads offshore, the environment may still become conducive to supercells with potential to produce severe wind, hail and perhaps a tornado. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone will migrate from the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Models indicate that this may include, south to southwesterly flow on the order of 50-90+ kt within a moistening warm sector, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge, and perhaps ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Although more favorable low-level moisture return from the Gulf may become cut off by early Wednesday, moistening may be augmented somewhat by a developing return flow off a modifying boundary-layer offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Models still indicate that this may only become supportive of weak destabilization. However, given the strength of the wind fields and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern through Mid Atlantic... Models indicate that surface dew points may increase into the 60s F in a corridor across the Carolinas through Virginia during the day. Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest that this might occur across parts of the Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain prior to the arrival of a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States. Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be rather weak, weak near-surface destabilization might become sufficient to support a risk for tornadoes and/or damaging straight line wind gusts, given forecast very large, clockwise curved low-level hodographs. In the wake of this initial band of convection, beneath a developing dry slot, northward moisture advection and insolation to the lee of the Blue Ridge may contribute to modest destabilization by late Wednesday afternoon. It appears that this will be aided by the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling spreading to the east of the Appalachians, and accompanied by increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs may become more modest by this time as the stronger low-level jet core spreads offshore, the environment may still become conducive to supercells with potential to produce severe wind, hail and perhaps a tornado. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone will migrate from the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Models indicate that this may include, south to southwesterly flow on the order of 50-90+ kt within a moistening warm sector, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge, and perhaps ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Although more favorable low-level moisture return from the Gulf may become cut off by early Wednesday, moistening may be augmented somewhat by a developing return flow off a modifying boundary-layer offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Models still indicate that this may only become supportive of weak destabilization. However, given the strength of the wind fields and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern through Mid Atlantic... Models indicate that surface dew points may increase into the 60s F in a corridor across the Carolinas through Virginia during the day. Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest that this might occur across parts of the Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain prior to the arrival of a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States. Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be rather weak, weak near-surface destabilization might become sufficient to support a risk for tornadoes and/or damaging straight line wind gusts, given forecast very large, clockwise curved low-level hodographs. In the wake of this initial band of convection, beneath a developing dry slot, northward moisture advection and insolation to the lee of the Blue Ridge may contribute to modest destabilization by late Wednesday afternoon. It appears that this will be aided by the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling spreading to the east of the Appalachians, and accompanied by increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs may become more modest by this time as the stronger low-level jet core spreads offshore, the environment may still become conducive to supercells with potential to produce severe wind, hail and perhaps a tornado. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more