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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds are possible across parts of the Northeast to the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley from late morning through the afternoon. Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley late this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Appalachians/TN Valley to the Northeast... Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes southward into the southern Appalachians. Water-vapor imagery shows a vertically stacked cyclone over Ontario with a disturbance rotating through the basal portion of the larger scale trough. This mid-level feature will quickly move from the upper OH Valley into the NY/central Appalachians by the late afternoon. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, some diurnal heating ahead of this activity should yield gradual intensification of thunderstorms and increased storm coverage by late morning across parts of the southern Appalachians. Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail are possible, centered on the eastern TN vicinity. Isolated to scattered multicell clusters and short-line segments may also evolve in the afternoon from convection along/ahead of the cold front and lee trough. Weak MLCAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates will temper convective vigor, with damaging wind potential locally augmented to where pockets of deeper boundary-layer heating occur. ...Mid-MO Valley... An intense mid-level speed max/shortwave trough will quickly move from the southern part of the Prairie provinces into the mid MO Valley by this afternoon, before moving into the southwest Great Lakes by early Friday morning. Some model spread exists on the magnitude of destabilization immediately ahead of a cold front forecast to sweep through the region late this afternoon into the evening. However, weak buoyancy appears likely to develop and low-level lapse rates may become adequately steep to support a narrow corridor of low-topped storms capable of isolated severe gusts. ...KS... An accelerating and sharpening cold front will sweep south across the central High/Great Plains tonight. Undercut/elevated convection should form to the cold side of this boundary early Friday morning. Locally strong surface gusts may accompany this activity amid robust low-level northerlies. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds are possible across parts of the Northeast to the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley from late morning through the afternoon. Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley late this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Appalachians/TN Valley to the Northeast... Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes southward into the southern Appalachians. Water-vapor imagery shows a vertically stacked cyclone over Ontario with a disturbance rotating through the basal portion of the larger scale trough. This mid-level feature will quickly move from the upper OH Valley into the NY/central Appalachians by the late afternoon. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, some diurnal heating ahead of this activity should yield gradual intensification of thunderstorms and increased storm coverage by late morning across parts of the southern Appalachians. Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail are possible, centered on the eastern TN vicinity. Isolated to scattered multicell clusters and short-line segments may also evolve in the afternoon from convection along/ahead of the cold front and lee trough. Weak MLCAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates will temper convective vigor, with damaging wind potential locally augmented to where pockets of deeper boundary-layer heating occur. ...Mid-MO Valley... An intense mid-level speed max/shortwave trough will quickly move from the southern part of the Prairie provinces into the mid MO Valley by this afternoon, before moving into the southwest Great Lakes by early Friday morning. Some model spread exists on the magnitude of destabilization immediately ahead of a cold front forecast to sweep through the region late this afternoon into the evening. However, weak buoyancy appears likely to develop and low-level lapse rates may become adequately steep to support a narrow corridor of low-topped storms capable of isolated severe gusts. ...KS... An accelerating and sharpening cold front will sweep south across the central High/Great Plains tonight. Undercut/elevated convection should form to the cold side of this boundary early Friday morning. Locally strong surface gusts may accompany this activity amid robust low-level northerlies. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds are possible across parts of the Northeast to the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley from late morning through the afternoon. Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley late this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Appalachians/TN Valley to the Northeast... Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes southward into the southern Appalachians. Water-vapor imagery shows a vertically stacked cyclone over Ontario with a disturbance rotating through the basal portion of the larger scale trough. This mid-level feature will quickly move from the upper OH Valley into the NY/central Appalachians by the late afternoon. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, some diurnal heating ahead of this activity should yield gradual intensification of thunderstorms and increased storm coverage by late morning across parts of the southern Appalachians. Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail are possible, centered on the eastern TN vicinity. Isolated to scattered multicell clusters and short-line segments may also evolve in the afternoon from convection along/ahead of the cold front and lee trough. Weak MLCAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates will temper convective vigor, with damaging wind potential locally augmented to where pockets of deeper boundary-layer heating occur. ...Mid-MO Valley... An intense mid-level speed max/shortwave trough will quickly move from the southern part of the Prairie provinces into the mid MO Valley by this afternoon, before moving into the southwest Great Lakes by early Friday morning. Some model spread exists on the magnitude of destabilization immediately ahead of a cold front forecast to sweep through the region late this afternoon into the evening. However, weak buoyancy appears likely to develop and low-level lapse rates may become adequately steep to support a narrow corridor of low-topped storms capable of isolated severe gusts. ...KS... An accelerating and sharpening cold front will sweep south across the central High/Great Plains tonight. Undercut/elevated convection should form to the cold side of this boundary early Friday morning. Locally strong surface gusts may accompany this activity amid robust low-level northerlies. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds are possible across parts of the Northeast to the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley from late morning through the afternoon. Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley late this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Appalachians/TN Valley to the Northeast... Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes southward into the southern Appalachians. Water-vapor imagery shows a vertically stacked cyclone over Ontario with a disturbance rotating through the basal portion of the larger scale trough. This mid-level feature will quickly move from the upper OH Valley into the NY/central Appalachians by the late afternoon. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, some diurnal heating ahead of this activity should yield gradual intensification of thunderstorms and increased storm coverage by late morning across parts of the southern Appalachians. Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail are possible, centered on the eastern TN vicinity. Isolated to scattered multicell clusters and short-line segments may also evolve in the afternoon from convection along/ahead of the cold front and lee trough. Weak MLCAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates will temper convective vigor, with damaging wind potential locally augmented to where pockets of deeper boundary-layer heating occur. ...Mid-MO Valley... An intense mid-level speed max/shortwave trough will quickly move from the southern part of the Prairie provinces into the mid MO Valley by this afternoon, before moving into the southwest Great Lakes by early Friday morning. Some model spread exists on the magnitude of destabilization immediately ahead of a cold front forecast to sweep through the region late this afternoon into the evening. However, weak buoyancy appears likely to develop and low-level lapse rates may become adequately steep to support a narrow corridor of low-topped storms capable of isolated severe gusts. ...KS... An accelerating and sharpening cold front will sweep south across the central High/Great Plains tonight. Undercut/elevated convection should form to the cold side of this boundary early Friday morning. Locally strong surface gusts may accompany this activity amid robust low-level northerlies. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds are possible across parts of the Northeast to the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley from late morning through the afternoon. Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley late this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Appalachians/TN Valley to the Northeast... Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes southward into the southern Appalachians. Water-vapor imagery shows a vertically stacked cyclone over Ontario with a disturbance rotating through the basal portion of the larger scale trough. This mid-level feature will quickly move from the upper OH Valley into the NY/central Appalachians by the late afternoon. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, some diurnal heating ahead of this activity should yield gradual intensification of thunderstorms and increased storm coverage by late morning across parts of the southern Appalachians. Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail are possible, centered on the eastern TN vicinity. Isolated to scattered multicell clusters and short-line segments may also evolve in the afternoon from convection along/ahead of the cold front and lee trough. Weak MLCAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates will temper convective vigor, with damaging wind potential locally augmented to where pockets of deeper boundary-layer heating occur. ...Mid-MO Valley... An intense mid-level speed max/shortwave trough will quickly move from the southern part of the Prairie provinces into the mid MO Valley by this afternoon, before moving into the southwest Great Lakes by early Friday morning. Some model spread exists on the magnitude of destabilization immediately ahead of a cold front forecast to sweep through the region late this afternoon into the evening. However, weak buoyancy appears likely to develop and low-level lapse rates may become adequately steep to support a narrow corridor of low-topped storms capable of isolated severe gusts. ...KS... An accelerating and sharpening cold front will sweep south across the central High/Great Plains tonight. Undercut/elevated convection should form to the cold side of this boundary early Friday morning. Locally strong surface gusts may accompany this activity amid robust low-level northerlies. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds are possible across parts of the Northeast to the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley from late morning through the afternoon. Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley late this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Appalachians/TN Valley to the Northeast... Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes southward into the southern Appalachians. Water-vapor imagery shows a vertically stacked cyclone over Ontario with a disturbance rotating through the basal portion of the larger scale trough. This mid-level feature will quickly move from the upper OH Valley into the NY/central Appalachians by the late afternoon. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, some diurnal heating ahead of this activity should yield gradual intensification of thunderstorms and increased storm coverage by late morning across parts of the southern Appalachians. Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail are possible, centered on the eastern TN vicinity. Isolated to scattered multicell clusters and short-line segments may also evolve in the afternoon from convection along/ahead of the cold front and lee trough. Weak MLCAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates will temper convective vigor, with damaging wind potential locally augmented to where pockets of deeper boundary-layer heating occur. ...Mid-MO Valley... An intense mid-level speed max/shortwave trough will quickly move from the southern part of the Prairie provinces into the mid MO Valley by this afternoon, before moving into the southwest Great Lakes by early Friday morning. Some model spread exists on the magnitude of destabilization immediately ahead of a cold front forecast to sweep through the region late this afternoon into the evening. However, weak buoyancy appears likely to develop and low-level lapse rates may become adequately steep to support a narrow corridor of low-topped storms capable of isolated severe gusts. ...KS... An accelerating and sharpening cold front will sweep south across the central High/Great Plains tonight. Undercut/elevated convection should form to the cold side of this boundary early Friday morning. Locally strong surface gusts may accompany this activity amid robust low-level northerlies. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/04/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 11:49:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 09:27:19 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041149
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin Friday night.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Hurricane Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin just off the
west coast of Baja California Sur.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kleebauer

Issued at 500 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 041148 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 500 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...LORENA WEAKENING... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 113.9W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 113.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is expected to begin this afternoon and continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula today and approach the coast of Baja California Sur tonight through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to quickly weaken for the next couple of days, and it is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today. Lorena is likely to degenerate into a remnant low near or over the Baja California peninsula by early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 5 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur today through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula late Friday into Friday night. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...LORENA WEAKENING... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... As of 5:00 AM MST Thu Sep 04 the center of Lorena was located near 24.1, -113.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 500 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 500 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...LORENA WEAKENING... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 113.9W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 113.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is expected to begin this afternoon and continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula today and approach the coast of Baja California Sur tonight through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to quickly weaken for the next couple of days, and it is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today. Lorena is likely to degenerate into a remnant low near or over the Baja California peninsula by early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 5 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur today through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula late Friday into Friday night. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 08:53:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 09:27:19 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 08:53:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 09:22:15 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 08:53:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 08:53:59 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 08:53:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 08:53:59 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 08:53:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 08:53:01 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 040852 TCDEP2 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 Lorena has become less organized since the last advisory due to the impacts of increasing vertical shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures underneath the hurricane. Earlier microwave imagery indicated that the eyewall had broken open, and current conventional imagery shows that the low-level center is now located near the southwestern edge of the convective mass. The various satellite intensity estimates are now trending down, and based on this the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 70 kt. The initial motion is now a slower 320/7 kt. Lorena is expected to turn northward with a further decrease in forward speed later today as the cyclone moves farther into a break in the subtropical ridge. After that, the guidance is now considerably slower in moving Lorena to the north-northeast with the 00Z GFS now taking 60 h to reach Baja California Sur. The NHC forecast track is again slowed down significantly and blends the previous forecast with the new consensus models and the 00Z GFS. It should be noted that in contrast to the right turn of the GFS and the regional hurricane models, the ECMWF and Canadian models continue to show a left turn as Lorena approaches the coast that would keep the center offshore until the cyclone dissipates. Lorena should rapidly weaken in the increasingly unfavorable environment, with the cyclone now forecast to weaken to a tropical storm in 12 h or less. After that, the simulated satellite imagery from the 00Z GFS and ECMWF shows the cyclone should stop producing organized convection no later than 48 h, and this could happen earlier. The new intensity forecast now shows the system decaying to a remnant low by 48 h. Whether the system crosses Baja or stays over the cold Pacific waters, it is expected to dissipate completely by 96 h. Although Lorena is forecast to rapidly weaken, abundant moisture will continue to stream northeastward away from the cyclone. Because of that, there is still a significant risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Baja California Sur, Sonora, and southern Arizona and New Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across northwest Mexico. 2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona into Saturday. 3. The center of Lorena is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula today, and then move closer to the west-central coast of the peninsula tonight and Friday. Regardless of the exact track, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the coast of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible late Friday along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 4. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 24.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 24.7N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 25.4N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 26.1N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 26.7N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z 27.3N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 28.0N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040852 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko has degraded some since the previous advisory, with the eye now mostly obscured by a central dense overcast with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -80C. Given the favorable environment that the cyclone is traversing, it is likely that Kiko is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle at the moment. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 6.5/127 kt respectively, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 111 and 132 kt during the past several hours. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity has been held at 125 kt for this advisory, and Kiko remains a very powerful category 4 hurricane. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 7 kt. This general westward motion is expected to continue through Thursday, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing over the weekend and into early next week, along with a gradual increase in forward speed. There remains some along-track and cross track spread among the global models, although the spread has decreased considerably during the past 24 hours. A very slight northward adjustment has been made to the official track forecast, which remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest multi-model consensus aids. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly light vertical wind shear through around 60 hours. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal, hovering between 50 and 60 percent during the next couple of days, before dropping below 50 percent by 60 hours. Despite the somewhat dry mid-level airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should maintain Kiko as a major hurricane through day 3. There will likely be some fluctuations in strength during the next several days with the potential for eyewall replacement cycles during this time. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting below 40 percent. These factors should lead to steady and eventually rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast. Kiko will be influenced by environmental factors that can lead to the development of annular characteristics during the next few days along its approach, which can slow the rate of weakening. As a result, the official intensity forecast remains on the higher end or slightly above the intensity aids through day 5, and is very similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.7N 133.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 15.7N 140.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 16.4N 142.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 17.8N 146.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 19.2N 151.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 040851 PWSEP2 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 30 14(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 25N 115W 50 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 040851 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 22 57(79) 2(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 135W 50 1 25(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 135W 64 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 60(72) 20(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 32(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 26(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 16(32) 1(33) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 2(36) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 45(60) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 50(58) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)