Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The IsoDryT area was expanded in portions of northern California, Oregon, and into the Washington Cascades based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Additionally, deep pyroconvection was observed on four different fires in the Northwest yesterday, including lightning from it on the Wildcat and Lower Sugarloaf Fires in Washington. Deep pyroconvection remains possible on active large wildfires across the Northwest and into north Idaho and northwest California today, although smoke and cloud cover may help mitigate. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible overnight in portions of western/central Oregon. As a cold front pushes south into the northern Rockies, northeast-easterly winds will increase across western Montana, north Idaho, and eastern Washington this evening and overnight. Gusty winds of 20-35 mph are likely but RH is forecast to be 30-50%. Given the amount of fire activity, gusty winds, and wind shift, there is concern for increased activity from locally elevated conditions. Locally elevated conditions are also possible across portions of New England today in a pre-frontal environment. Southerly winds of 10-20 mph amid minimum RH of 35-50% are forecast this afternoon, and fuels are currently very dry in portions of New England. However, showers and thunderstorms with increasing RH will arrive this evening and overnight for much of New England. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level wave will aid in thunderstorm development across portions of northern California into Washington this afternoon. Storm motions today will be slower than in recent days. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected. However, mainly mid-level moisture and dry sub-cloud layer should reduce rainfall amounts and increase potential for dry lightning strikes to occur. Activity over the last 24-48 hours has generally produced 0.25" of rain with several new fires detected. An area of isolated dry thunderstorm risk was maintained across portions of northern California into central Oregon with this outlook. A strike or two may extend as far north as the Washington Cascades. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The IsoDryT area was expanded in portions of northern California, Oregon, and into the Washington Cascades based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Additionally, deep pyroconvection was observed on four different fires in the Northwest yesterday, including lightning from it on the Wildcat and Lower Sugarloaf Fires in Washington. Deep pyroconvection remains possible on active large wildfires across the Northwest and into north Idaho and northwest California today, although smoke and cloud cover may help mitigate. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible overnight in portions of western/central Oregon. As a cold front pushes south into the northern Rockies, northeast-easterly winds will increase across western Montana, north Idaho, and eastern Washington this evening and overnight. Gusty winds of 20-35 mph are likely but RH is forecast to be 30-50%. Given the amount of fire activity, gusty winds, and wind shift, there is concern for increased activity from locally elevated conditions. Locally elevated conditions are also possible across portions of New England today in a pre-frontal environment. Southerly winds of 10-20 mph amid minimum RH of 35-50% are forecast this afternoon, and fuels are currently very dry in portions of New England. However, showers and thunderstorms with increasing RH will arrive this evening and overnight for much of New England. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level wave will aid in thunderstorm development across portions of northern California into Washington this afternoon. Storm motions today will be slower than in recent days. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected. However, mainly mid-level moisture and dry sub-cloud layer should reduce rainfall amounts and increase potential for dry lightning strikes to occur. Activity over the last 24-48 hours has generally produced 0.25" of rain with several new fires detected. An area of isolated dry thunderstorm risk was maintained across portions of northern California into central Oregon with this outlook. A strike or two may extend as far north as the Washington Cascades. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The IsoDryT area was expanded in portions of northern California, Oregon, and into the Washington Cascades based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Additionally, deep pyroconvection was observed on four different fires in the Northwest yesterday, including lightning from it on the Wildcat and Lower Sugarloaf Fires in Washington. Deep pyroconvection remains possible on active large wildfires across the Northwest and into north Idaho and northwest California today, although smoke and cloud cover may help mitigate. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible overnight in portions of western/central Oregon. As a cold front pushes south into the northern Rockies, northeast-easterly winds will increase across western Montana, north Idaho, and eastern Washington this evening and overnight. Gusty winds of 20-35 mph are likely but RH is forecast to be 30-50%. Given the amount of fire activity, gusty winds, and wind shift, there is concern for increased activity from locally elevated conditions. Locally elevated conditions are also possible across portions of New England today in a pre-frontal environment. Southerly winds of 10-20 mph amid minimum RH of 35-50% are forecast this afternoon, and fuels are currently very dry in portions of New England. However, showers and thunderstorms with increasing RH will arrive this evening and overnight for much of New England. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level wave will aid in thunderstorm development across portions of northern California into Washington this afternoon. Storm motions today will be slower than in recent days. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected. However, mainly mid-level moisture and dry sub-cloud layer should reduce rainfall amounts and increase potential for dry lightning strikes to occur. Activity over the last 24-48 hours has generally produced 0.25" of rain with several new fires detected. An area of isolated dry thunderstorm risk was maintained across portions of northern California into central Oregon with this outlook. A strike or two may extend as far north as the Washington Cascades. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The IsoDryT area was expanded in portions of northern California, Oregon, and into the Washington Cascades based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Additionally, deep pyroconvection was observed on four different fires in the Northwest yesterday, including lightning from it on the Wildcat and Lower Sugarloaf Fires in Washington. Deep pyroconvection remains possible on active large wildfires across the Northwest and into north Idaho and northwest California today, although smoke and cloud cover may help mitigate. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible overnight in portions of western/central Oregon. As a cold front pushes south into the northern Rockies, northeast-easterly winds will increase across western Montana, north Idaho, and eastern Washington this evening and overnight. Gusty winds of 20-35 mph are likely but RH is forecast to be 30-50%. Given the amount of fire activity, gusty winds, and wind shift, there is concern for increased activity from locally elevated conditions. Locally elevated conditions are also possible across portions of New England today in a pre-frontal environment. Southerly winds of 10-20 mph amid minimum RH of 35-50% are forecast this afternoon, and fuels are currently very dry in portions of New England. However, showers and thunderstorms with increasing RH will arrive this evening and overnight for much of New England. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level wave will aid in thunderstorm development across portions of northern California into Washington this afternoon. Storm motions today will be slower than in recent days. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected. However, mainly mid-level moisture and dry sub-cloud layer should reduce rainfall amounts and increase potential for dry lightning strikes to occur. Activity over the last 24-48 hours has generally produced 0.25" of rain with several new fires detected. An area of isolated dry thunderstorm risk was maintained across portions of northern California into central Oregon with this outlook. A strike or two may extend as far north as the Washington Cascades. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 727 WTPZ41 KNHC 041458 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko continues with a weaker depiction compared to yesterday evening, but beginning to see some stabilization in the core with a little more convective wrap within the southern flank of the eyewall. IR satellite and accompanying Dvorak imagery indicates a likely eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) occurring over the past 12 hours, leading to the marginal degradation of the storms presentation. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were each 6.0/115 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 108 and 127 kt during the past several hours. Based on the latest data from both the subjective and objective analysis, the initial intensity has been adjusted to 115 kt for this advisory, however Kiko still remains a very powerful category 4 hurricane. With Kiko's EWRC anticipated to be completed later today, the expectation is for Kiko's inner-core to stabilize. Given the favorable environment that the cyclone is traversing, the latest intensity forecast shows the hurricane re-intensifying after the EWRC completes in the short-term. Thereafter, the current environment is quite favorable for Kiko to attempt to develop annular characteristics, which often allows a hurricane to remain stronger and closer to the maximum potential intensity (MPI) than what the more marginal thermodynamics would typically allow. The short-term intensity forecast is actually above the vast majority of the interpolated intensity aids, which are somewhat influenced by the lower initial intensity. However, the latest raw output from both HAFS-A/B show Kiko maintaining category 4 intensity for at least the next 48 hours, and that is what will be reflected in this latest forecast. After 72 hours, Kiko's environment becomes less favorable, with increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, and sea-surface temperatures decreasing below 26 C. Thus, more pronounced weakening is expected from days 3-5, with the intensity forecast falling back in line with the majority of the consensus intensity aids. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 kt. This general westward motion is expected to continue through the day due to a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. Afterwards, this ridge begins to erode on its western side due to an upper-level trough digging in to the north of Hawaii. Thus, Kiko should begin to gain more latitude after the next 24 hours, and maintain a more west-northwestward heading through the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered in the short-term, though spread in the various consensus guidance aids increases to above climatology by the end of the forecast period. Ultimately, the latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior one, just a little faster due to the latest guidance updates. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.8N 133.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 134.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.3N 136.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 18.3N 148.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 19.9N 152.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Kleebauer/Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 938 FOPZ11 KNHC 041457 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 54 18(72) X(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 135W 50 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 135W 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 40(41) 50(91) 4(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 56(65) 9(74) X(74) X(74) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 10(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 7(37) 1(38) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) 1(34) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 33(66) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 43(62) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER KLEEBAUER/PAPIN

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 179 WTPZ31 KNHC 041456 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...KIKO A LITTLE WEAKER, BUT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 133.7W ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1675 MI...2690 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 133.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On Friday, Kiko is expected to turn west-northwestward and maintain this motion for the following few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected in the next two to three days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Kleebauer/Papin

...KIKO A LITTLE WEAKER, BUT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Sep 04 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -133.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 041455 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 133.7W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 133.7W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 133.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 134.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.3N 136.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.3N 148.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.9N 152.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 133.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KLEEBAUER/PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 041438 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 Lorena has crossed the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm and is now experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly wind shear. Recent GMI and AMSR-2 microwave passes indicate that the center is now located near or just outside of the convective area, and the convection is beginning to get sheared off toward the northeast. The latest subjective intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB range from 55-77 kt, and the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates range from 50-62 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory, making Lorena a tropical storm. As Lorena continues to slowly gain latitude, it will progressively encounter colder water temperatures and stronger southwesterly shear. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows fairly quick weakening to a remnant low in about 36 h, in agreement with the guidance. This is a slightly faster rate of weakening compared to the previous official forecast. The remnant low should then dissipate completely in about 3 days, likely offshore, to the west of Baja California. The GFS model and all of NHC's consensus guidance (including the HCCA, Google DeepMind, and TCVE) have come onboard to the solution that the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models have been advertising for the past couple of days, which shows Lorena slowing down and dissipating offshore, to the west of Baja California. The only models that still bring Lorena's center into the Baja California peninsula are the HAFS models and the HMON (as a weak low, below tropical storm strength). As Lorena's convection gets stripped off toward the northeast, its path will soon be governed by the low-level steering currents, which should keep Lorena moving slowly offshore as it weakens. The new NHC forecast represents a large change from the previous forecast, and now keeps the center of Lorena offshore. Although the chance of sustained tropical-storm-force winds on land is starting to decrease, the rainfall and flash flooding threat for the Baja California peninsula is still significant. Abundant moisture will continue to stream northeastward away from the cyclone. Because of that, there is still a significant risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Baja California Sur, Sonora, southern Arizona and New Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across northwest Mexico. 2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona into Saturday. 3. The center of Lorena is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula through tonight, and then could move closer to the west-central coast of the peninsula while it weakens on Friday. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are likely along portions of the coast of Baja California Sur today through Friday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 24.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 24.7N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 25.3N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 25.8N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 26.2N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 26.6N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 041437 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 38 10(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 041437 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 114.2W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula south of Puerto Cortes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 114.2 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move generally parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and could move closer to the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula while it weakens on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to quickly weaken for the next couple of days, and it is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low near or to the west of the Baja California peninsula by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 5 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected somewhere within the warning area in Baja California Sur today through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... As of 8:00 AM MST Thu Sep 04 the center of Lorena was located near 24.2, -114.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 041436 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 114.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 114.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.7N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.3N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.8N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.2N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.6N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 114.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN