Aggregator

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ACT TO 20 NE TYR TO 15 ESE RUE. ..BROYLES..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC057-061-081-091-310240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER TXC037-067-183-203-213-315-343-423-459-310240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOWIE CASS GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON MARION MORRIS SMITH UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ACT TO 20 NE TYR TO 15 ESE RUE. ..BROYLES..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC057-061-081-091-310240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER TXC037-067-183-203-213-315-343-423-459-310240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOWIE CASS GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON MARION MORRIS SMITH UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 74 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 302045Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 74 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Far Southeast Oklahoma North into Northeast Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and rapidly intensify this afternoon and persist into the evening. Supercells capable of large to very large hail will be possible with the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Hot Springs AR to 40 miles west southwest of Corsicana TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 70...WW 71...WW 72...WW 73... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0077 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 77 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 77 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC015-017-031-085-310240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO SABINE TXC001-005-041-073-161-185-225-289-293-313-347-365-373-395-401- 403-405-407-419-455-471-310240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS CHEROKEE FREESTONE GRIMES HOUSTON LEON LIMESTONE MADISON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA POLK ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0077 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 77 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 77 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC015-017-031-085-310240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO SABINE TXC001-005-041-073-161-185-225-289-293-313-347-365-373-395-401- 403-405-407-419-455-471-310240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS CHEROKEE FREESTONE GRIMES HOUSTON LEON LIMESTONE MADISON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA POLK ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0077 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 77 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 77 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC015-017-031-085-310240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO SABINE TXC001-005-041-073-161-185-225-289-293-313-347-365-373-395-401- 403-405-407-419-455-471-310240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS CHEROKEE FREESTONE GRIMES HOUSTON LEON LIMESTONE MADISON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA POLK ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0077 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 77 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 77 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC015-017-031-085-310240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO SABINE TXC001-005-041-073-161-185-225-289-293-313-347-365-373-395-401- 403-405-407-419-455-471-310240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS CHEROKEE FREESTONE GRIMES HOUSTON LEON LIMESTONE MADISON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA POLK ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DYR TO 25 NNE SLO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248 ..MOORE..03/19/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC047-059-065-069-151-165-185-191-193-200040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN POPE SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173- 175-200040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY SCOTT SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DYR TO 25 NNE SLO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248 ..MOORE..03/19/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC047-059-065-069-151-165-185-191-193-200040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN POPE SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173- 175-200040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY SCOTT SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DYR TO 25 NNE SLO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248 ..MOORE..03/19/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC047-059-065-069-151-165-185-191-193-200040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN POPE SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173- 175-200040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY SCOTT SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more