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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW LOZ TO 15 SSW JKL TO 35 SW HTS TO 20 NE HTS TO 25 SW PKB. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-071-095-115-119-121-127-131-133-147-153-159-193- 195-235-310640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAWRENCE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE WHITLEY VAC051-105-169-195-720-310640- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKENSON LEE SCOTT WISE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW LOZ TO 15 SSW JKL TO 35 SW HTS TO 20 NE HTS TO 25 SW PKB. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-071-095-115-119-121-127-131-133-147-153-159-193- 195-235-310640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAWRENCE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE WHITLEY VAC051-105-169-195-720-310640- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKENSON LEE SCOTT WISE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW LOZ TO 15 SSW JKL TO 35 SW HTS TO 20 NE HTS TO 25 SW PKB. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-071-095-115-119-121-127-131-133-147-153-159-193- 195-235-310640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAWRENCE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE WHITLEY VAC051-105-169-195-720-310640- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKENSON LEE SCOTT WISE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW LOZ TO 15 SSW JKL TO 35 SW HTS TO 20 NE HTS TO 25 SW PKB. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-071-095-115-119-121-127-131-133-147-153-159-193- 195-235-310640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAWRENCE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE WHITLEY VAC051-105-169-195-720-310640- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKENSON LEE SCOTT WISE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW LOZ TO 15 SSW JKL TO 35 SW HTS TO 20 NE HTS TO 25 SW PKB. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-071-095-115-119-121-127-131-133-147-153-159-193- 195-235-310640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAWRENCE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE WHITLEY VAC051-105-169-195-720-310640- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKENSON LEE SCOTT WISE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW LOZ TO 15 SSW JKL TO 35 SW HTS TO 20 NE HTS TO 25 SW PKB. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-071-095-115-119-121-127-131-133-147-153-159-193- 195-235-310640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAWRENCE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE WHITLEY VAC051-105-169-195-720-310640- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKENSON LEE SCOTT WISE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 80 SEVERE TSTM KY OH VA WV 310255Z - 311000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 80 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Far Southern Ohio Far Western Virginia Western West Virginia * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1055 PM until 600 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts will continue into the region as the ongoing convective line progresses eastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Charleston WV to 30 miles southeast of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 72...WW 74...WW 76...WW 77...WW 78...WW 79... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/23/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-093-107-127-133-232340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC003-017-232340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-232340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/23/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-093-107-127-133-232340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC003-017-232340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-232340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE Read more