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WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW MLU TO 15 WNW LLQ TO 5 SSE LIT. ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-017-041-043-069-079-095-040240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN MONROE MSC011-133-151-040240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW MLU TO 15 WNW LLQ TO 5 SSE LIT. ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-017-041-043-069-079-095-040240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN MONROE MSC011-133-151-040240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW MLU TO 15 WNW LLQ TO 5 SSE LIT. ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-017-041-043-069-079-095-040240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN MONROE MSC011-133-151-040240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW MLU TO 15 WNW LLQ TO 5 SSE LIT. ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-017-041-043-069-079-095-040240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN MONROE MSC011-133-151-040240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW MLU TO 15 WNW LLQ TO 5 SSE LIT. ..WEINMAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-017-041-043-069-079-095-040240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN MONROE MSC011-133-151-040240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 109 TORNADO AR LA MS TX 031910Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Northwest Mississippi Northeast Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...As the atmosphere continues to destabilize, severe storms including supercells are expected to develop near a frontal boundary that extends generally southwest-northeast across the region. Any storms that develop near/south of the boundary could pose a tornado risk, aside from large hail and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles south of Tyler TX to 50 miles north of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 107...WW 108... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0384 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 107...109... FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas. northwest Mississippi...and far southwest Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...109... Valid 032339Z - 040115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107, 109 continues. SUMMARY...The primary risk appears to be large hail. While much less likely, damaging winds and/or a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out on a very localized basis. DISCUSSION...Several elevated supercell clusters are tracking northeastward across portions of southern AR and northwest MS -- to the north of a stationary boundary draped across northern MS into far southern AR. The LZK/NQA VWPs continue to sample a very elongated/straight hodograph, with around 60-70 kt of effective shear north of the boundary. This, along with steep midlevel lapse rates atop a cool/stable boundary layer (yielding 2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE), will continue to favor elevated supercell structures capable of producing large hail (generally upwards of 2 inches in diameter). Given the elevated nature of these storms, and limited potential for northward movement of the boundary and related warm sector, the tornado and damaging-wind risks appears low. With that said, if these storms can intercept any localized pockets of surface-based instability north of the boundary, large low-level streamwise vorticity would support a tornado risk. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34169246 34889111 35449017 35538974 35448937 35118910 34738929 34109045 33449220 33529259 33849263 34169246 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms across Texas will develop later tonight. ...01z Update... While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley. LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak low-level convergence. Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to generate hail. ..Darrow.. 04/04/2025 Read more