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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-137-151-207-235-253-267-307-319-327- 353-399-411-413-417-431-435-441-447-451-465-040740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT EDWARDS FISHER HASKELL IRION JONES KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to be the initial threats. The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have 0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central Gulf Coast states. ...Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2025 Read more