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WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MWL TO 45 WNW SJT TO 25 SSE BGS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 110 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04/10Z. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC081-083-151-207-253-353-417-431-441-447-041000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COKE COLEMAN FISHER HASKELL JONES NOLAN SHACKELFORD STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MWL TO 45 WNW SJT TO 25 SSE BGS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 110 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04/10Z. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC081-083-151-207-253-353-417-431-441-447-041000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COKE COLEMAN FISHER HASKELL JONES NOLAN SHACKELFORD STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MWL TO 45 WNW SJT TO 25 SSE BGS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 110 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04/10Z. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC081-083-151-207-253-353-417-431-441-447-041000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COKE COLEMAN FISHER HASKELL JONES NOLAN SHACKELFORD STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MWL TO 45 WNW SJT TO 25 SSE BGS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 110 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04/10Z. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC081-083-151-207-253-353-417-431-441-447-041000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COKE COLEMAN FISHER HASKELL JONES NOLAN SHACKELFORD STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MWL TO 45 WNW SJT TO 25 SSE BGS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 110 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04/10Z. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC081-083-151-207-253-353-417-431-441-447-041000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COKE COLEMAN FISHER HASKELL JONES NOLAN SHACKELFORD STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MWL TO 45 WNW SJT TO 25 SSE BGS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 110 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04/10Z. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC081-083-151-207-253-353-417-431-441-447-041000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COKE COLEMAN FISHER HASKELL JONES NOLAN SHACKELFORD STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0111 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-033-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-141- 041040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL COTTON GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-147-181-237-275-337-485-487-497-503-041040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK KNOX MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 110 SEVERE TSTM TX 040405Z - 041000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Texas * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1105 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly developing, and will overspread the watch area overnight. A few supercells are expected, capable of large/very large hail and perhaps locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 90 miles southwest of San Angelo TX to 25 miles north of Brownwood TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0111 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-033-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-141- 040940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL COTTON GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-147-181-237-275-337-485-487-497-503-040940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK KNOX MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0389 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN AR...ADJACENT WRN TN....SERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0389 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...parts of cntrl/nrn AR...adjacent wrn TN....sern MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040706Z - 040900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development may persist and/or increase through daybreak across parts of central into northern Arkansas and adjacent portions of the Mid South. Stronger cells could pose a risk for severe hail. It is not clear that a watch is needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Scattered, moderately strong thunderstorm development has persisted above shallow cold air to the north of sharp stalled surface front (southeast of Memphis into the El Dorado and Shreveport vicinities), roughly focused along the baroclinic zone around 925 mb. This has been supported by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, despite the presence of inhibition associated with warm layers aloft, beneath broadly anticyclonic mid/upper flow. Downstream of a short wave perturbation progressing north-northeastward across the Texas South Plains vicinity, the focusing low-level baroclinic zone is forecast to shift northward during the next few hours, perhaps across and north of a Hot Springs-Memphis line by 12Z. Model output suggests that this may be accompanied by increasing, elevated thunderstorm development to the north of it, with thermodynamic profiles and convective-layer shear perhaps still supportive of the risk for severe hail in isolated to widely scattered stronger cells. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 35449411 36319185 36518997 35308968 34599032 33779224 34049316 35449411 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BWD TO 45 NE 6R6. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC059-081-083-105-151-207-235-253-353-399-417-431-441-447-451- 040940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CROCKETT FISHER HASKELL IRION JONES NOLAN RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0390 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ERN WV PNHDL...NRN VA...MD...DC...SRN PA...DE...SRN NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...ern WV Pnhdl...nrn VA...MD...DC...srn PA...DE...srn NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040752Z - 040845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, may accompany weak thunderstorm activity likely to spread east of the Blue Ridge and across the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore metropolitan areas through 6-7 AM EDT. It is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A narrow line of thunderstorms has shown some intensification, near and south of a wave or weak MCV now east of Elkins WV. This activity has been propagating rapidly eastward, along and just south of a slow moving or stalling cold front, around 50 kt, which is about the strength of the mean westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow across the Allegheny Mountains into northern Mid Atlantic. Due to generally weak deep-layer lapse rates, CAPE along this corridor is quite weak west of the mountains, but improves somewhat (CAPE to 500 J/kg) in better low-level moisture across northern Virginia through southern New Jersey. While some further intensification to the east of the Blue Ridge is possible as activity rapidly advances eastward through 11-12Z, thunderstorm intensities are likely to remain rather modest, based on forecast soundings. However, unsaturated profiles in lower/mid-levels, may contribute to evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport of rear-inflow, which may undergo some further convective augmentation. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39897751 39677548 38737539 38497760 38557915 39397855 39897751 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more