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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 8 01:47:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts remain possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, especially this evening. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough has progressed through the western U.S. ridge and is now digging southeast across eastern WY/CO. Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature within an air mass characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. 00z sounding from DDC supports this with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 35kt. Over the next few hours LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwestern NE. This should aid southeast propagation across the central High Plains, and isolated hail/wind may continue to be observed with the more robust updrafts. Given the expected increase in LLJ, some of this activity could linger into the overnight hours. ..Darrow.. 09/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts remain possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, especially this evening. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough has progressed through the western U.S. ridge and is now digging southeast across eastern WY/CO. Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature within an air mass characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. 00z sounding from DDC supports this with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 35kt. Over the next few hours LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwestern NE. This should aid southeast propagation across the central High Plains, and isolated hail/wind may continue to be observed with the more robust updrafts. Given the expected increase in LLJ, some of this activity could linger into the overnight hours. ..Darrow.. 09/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts remain possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, especially this evening. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough has progressed through the western U.S. ridge and is now digging southeast across eastern WY/CO. Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature within an air mass characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. 00z sounding from DDC supports this with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 35kt. Over the next few hours LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwestern NE. This should aid southeast propagation across the central High Plains, and isolated hail/wind may continue to be observed with the more robust updrafts. Given the expected increase in LLJ, some of this activity could linger into the overnight hours. ..Darrow.. 09/08/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin well east of Hilo,
Hawaii.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 7 23:01:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2047 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2047 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Areas affected...the south-central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072157Z - 080000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and localized severe gusts are possible through mid-evening across mainly the northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado portion of the south-central High Plains. DISCUSSION...Initial discrete cells have increased off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa vicinity of northeast NM and in a separate southwest/northeast-oriented corridor from Pueblo to Lincoln County, CO. Towering Cu and incipient Cb development is also underway along a surface trough over southeast CO, northeastward from the NM convection. With a west to east gradient of surface dew points from the mid 50s to low 60s out ahead of the Raton Mesa/southeast CO activity, the best chance for sporadic severe hail/wind gusts may be in this corridor where a moderate combination of buoyancy/deep-layer shear persists longest. Convection farther north will at least have a near-term threat for isolated severe but should wane in a few hours, especially if sustained development occurs to its southeast. ..Grams/Mosier.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 36120511 36790428 37250401 37700408 38290441 38810442 39110404 39400327 39390252 38450179 37990164 37240191 36540245 35430369 35390486 36120511 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 2048 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Areas affected...Portions of North and Central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072159Z - 072300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms along the Atlantic sea breeze boundary may produce wind damage. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along an outflow boundary and the Atlantic sea breeze boundary. On the southern fringe of a broad upper trough across the East, effective shear has been marginally enhanced. The strongest shear will be generally north of the outflow boundary, but augmentation along the sea breeze boundary may allow for a few stronger storms to form within that zone. The strongest activity will tend to propagate southward over the next couple of hours. Shear is strong enough for brief, marginal supercell structures (some weak rotation was noted on KMLB/KJAX velocity imagery). Isolated wind damage is possible late this afternoon. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29298244 29648244 29828181 29348106 28988082 28738104 28798173 29298244 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 7 21:38:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest, with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. Latest intel from partners suggest many ongoing fires have received rainfall over the last 24-48 hours. Hi-res guidance indicates that activity for D1/Sunday will be a mix of wet/dry, with additional wetting rainfall likely. In addition, increasing humidity and cloud cover amid lower mixing heights has helped improve fire conditions. Gusty and erratic outflow from nearby thunderstorms may impact ongoing fires. The exception may be across a small portion of northeastern Oregon, where less rainfall has been recorded and amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.10-0.25" tomorrow. In this region, low probability of new ignitions still remains possible. Overall, this area remains too confined and uncertain for inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest, with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. Latest intel from partners suggest many ongoing fires have received rainfall over the last 24-48 hours. Hi-res guidance indicates that activity for D1/Sunday will be a mix of wet/dry, with additional wetting rainfall likely. In addition, increasing humidity and cloud cover amid lower mixing heights has helped improve fire conditions. Gusty and erratic outflow from nearby thunderstorms may impact ongoing fires. The exception may be across a small portion of northeastern Oregon, where less rainfall has been recorded and amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.10-0.25" tomorrow. In this region, low probability of new ignitions still remains possible. Overall, this area remains too confined and uncertain for inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest, with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. Latest intel from partners suggest many ongoing fires have received rainfall over the last 24-48 hours. Hi-res guidance indicates that activity for D1/Sunday will be a mix of wet/dry, with additional wetting rainfall likely. In addition, increasing humidity and cloud cover amid lower mixing heights has helped improve fire conditions. Gusty and erratic outflow from nearby thunderstorms may impact ongoing fires. The exception may be across a small portion of northeastern Oregon, where less rainfall has been recorded and amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.10-0.25" tomorrow. In this region, low probability of new ignitions still remains possible. Overall, this area remains too confined and uncertain for inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more