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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Wednesday, not much change in the upper-level pattern is expected from Tuesday. The upper-level trough in the West will shift into more of the Great Basin and the mid-level jet will extend farther northward. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Eastern Great Basin into Idaho/Wyoming... Dry and breezy conditions appear likely during the afternoon. Winds of 15-25 mph will be possible along with RH of 15-20%. Even with these elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions, fuels are not likely to become receptive enough to support more than a locally elevated risk. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... While thunderstorms will be possible in association with the upper low, recent precipitation and substantial cloud cover should generally limit the overall risk for lightning ignitions. A continued downward trend in fuel receptiveness is expected Wednesday. Highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains Wednesday. A stronger storm or two is possible, but severe potential is overall low. ...High Plains... East of a deepening upper low and 40-50 kt mid-level jet over the Great Basin and Northwest, shortwave ridging will persist across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A broad lee trough is expected to sharpen through the afternoon as weak ascent from the upper trough and mid-level jet glance the western edge of the upper ridge. The strongest ascent will be focused north and west over MT where a weak surface cyclone is expected to form by Wednesday afternoon. This will help draw richer low-level moisture westward later in the afternoon/evening. The late arrival of the more robust moisture suggests buoyancy will be limited, while capping remains stout over the northern and central High Plains. Still, robust heating and sufficient low-level moistening will allow for isolated high-based thunderstorms along the length of the surface trough across eastern MT/WY and western SD. A stray gust or two is possible, but limited buoyancy and forcing suggest the severe risk is low. Farther south, a weak secondary low is expected to form over the Raton Mesa. Enhanced easterly low-level upslope flow could support isolated storms late afternoon or into early evening. However, weak subsidence and warm mid-level temperatures beneath the upper ridge suggest remnant capping is likely to remain in place, limiting storm coverage/intensity. While moderate buoyancy is expected (1500-2500 J/kg) and an isolated stronger gust is possible, overall severe potential appears rather limited. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... Beneath the upper low, broad ascent and the southerly mid-level jet will overspread modest low-level moisture ahead of a weak cold front over the Intermountain West. Filtered daytime heating between remnant cloud cover will aide in scattered storm development across the higher terrain from eastern WA/OR into northern ID and western MT Wednesday afternoon. The increase in southerly flow aloft will elongate mid and upper-level hodographs to some degree, with 20-30 kt of bulk shear expected. This could support a few stronger storms, especially over portions of central ID and into western MT where ascent will be maximized. Given the steep low and mid-level lapse rates, a few strong gusts are possible. However, the threat for more organized/persistent severe storms appears limited by weaker buoyancy (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) and moisture. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains Wednesday. A stronger storm or two is possible, but severe potential is overall low. ...High Plains... East of a deepening upper low and 40-50 kt mid-level jet over the Great Basin and Northwest, shortwave ridging will persist across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A broad lee trough is expected to sharpen through the afternoon as weak ascent from the upper trough and mid-level jet glance the western edge of the upper ridge. The strongest ascent will be focused north and west over MT where a weak surface cyclone is expected to form by Wednesday afternoon. This will help draw richer low-level moisture westward later in the afternoon/evening. The late arrival of the more robust moisture suggests buoyancy will be limited, while capping remains stout over the northern and central High Plains. Still, robust heating and sufficient low-level moistening will allow for isolated high-based thunderstorms along the length of the surface trough across eastern MT/WY and western SD. A stray gust or two is possible, but limited buoyancy and forcing suggest the severe risk is low. Farther south, a weak secondary low is expected to form over the Raton Mesa. Enhanced easterly low-level upslope flow could support isolated storms late afternoon or into early evening. However, weak subsidence and warm mid-level temperatures beneath the upper ridge suggest remnant capping is likely to remain in place, limiting storm coverage/intensity. While moderate buoyancy is expected (1500-2500 J/kg) and an isolated stronger gust is possible, overall severe potential appears rather limited. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... Beneath the upper low, broad ascent and the southerly mid-level jet will overspread modest low-level moisture ahead of a weak cold front over the Intermountain West. Filtered daytime heating between remnant cloud cover will aide in scattered storm development across the higher terrain from eastern WA/OR into northern ID and western MT Wednesday afternoon. The increase in southerly flow aloft will elongate mid and upper-level hodographs to some degree, with 20-30 kt of bulk shear expected. This could support a few stronger storms, especially over portions of central ID and into western MT where ascent will be maximized. Given the steep low and mid-level lapse rates, a few strong gusts are possible. However, the threat for more organized/persistent severe storms appears limited by weaker buoyancy (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) and moisture. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains Wednesday. A stronger storm or two is possible, but severe potential is overall low. ...High Plains... East of a deepening upper low and 40-50 kt mid-level jet over the Great Basin and Northwest, shortwave ridging will persist across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A broad lee trough is expected to sharpen through the afternoon as weak ascent from the upper trough and mid-level jet glance the western edge of the upper ridge. The strongest ascent will be focused north and west over MT where a weak surface cyclone is expected to form by Wednesday afternoon. This will help draw richer low-level moisture westward later in the afternoon/evening. The late arrival of the more robust moisture suggests buoyancy will be limited, while capping remains stout over the northern and central High Plains. Still, robust heating and sufficient low-level moistening will allow for isolated high-based thunderstorms along the length of the surface trough across eastern MT/WY and western SD. A stray gust or two is possible, but limited buoyancy and forcing suggest the severe risk is low. Farther south, a weak secondary low is expected to form over the Raton Mesa. Enhanced easterly low-level upslope flow could support isolated storms late afternoon or into early evening. However, weak subsidence and warm mid-level temperatures beneath the upper ridge suggest remnant capping is likely to remain in place, limiting storm coverage/intensity. While moderate buoyancy is expected (1500-2500 J/kg) and an isolated stronger gust is possible, overall severe potential appears rather limited. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... Beneath the upper low, broad ascent and the southerly mid-level jet will overspread modest low-level moisture ahead of a weak cold front over the Intermountain West. Filtered daytime heating between remnant cloud cover will aide in scattered storm development across the higher terrain from eastern WA/OR into northern ID and western MT Wednesday afternoon. The increase in southerly flow aloft will elongate mid and upper-level hodographs to some degree, with 20-30 kt of bulk shear expected. This could support a few stronger storms, especially over portions of central ID and into western MT where ascent will be maximized. Given the steep low and mid-level lapse rates, a few strong gusts are possible. However, the threat for more organized/persistent severe storms appears limited by weaker buoyancy (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) and moisture. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains Wednesday. A stronger storm or two is possible, but severe potential is overall low. ...High Plains... East of a deepening upper low and 40-50 kt mid-level jet over the Great Basin and Northwest, shortwave ridging will persist across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A broad lee trough is expected to sharpen through the afternoon as weak ascent from the upper trough and mid-level jet glance the western edge of the upper ridge. The strongest ascent will be focused north and west over MT where a weak surface cyclone is expected to form by Wednesday afternoon. This will help draw richer low-level moisture westward later in the afternoon/evening. The late arrival of the more robust moisture suggests buoyancy will be limited, while capping remains stout over the northern and central High Plains. Still, robust heating and sufficient low-level moistening will allow for isolated high-based thunderstorms along the length of the surface trough across eastern MT/WY and western SD. A stray gust or two is possible, but limited buoyancy and forcing suggest the severe risk is low. Farther south, a weak secondary low is expected to form over the Raton Mesa. Enhanced easterly low-level upslope flow could support isolated storms late afternoon or into early evening. However, weak subsidence and warm mid-level temperatures beneath the upper ridge suggest remnant capping is likely to remain in place, limiting storm coverage/intensity. While moderate buoyancy is expected (1500-2500 J/kg) and an isolated stronger gust is possible, overall severe potential appears rather limited. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... Beneath the upper low, broad ascent and the southerly mid-level jet will overspread modest low-level moisture ahead of a weak cold front over the Intermountain West. Filtered daytime heating between remnant cloud cover will aide in scattered storm development across the higher terrain from eastern WA/OR into northern ID and western MT Wednesday afternoon. The increase in southerly flow aloft will elongate mid and upper-level hodographs to some degree, with 20-30 kt of bulk shear expected. This could support a few stronger storms, especially over portions of central ID and into western MT where ascent will be maximized. Given the steep low and mid-level lapse rates, a few strong gusts are possible. However, the threat for more organized/persistent severe storms appears limited by weaker buoyancy (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) and moisture. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains Wednesday. A stronger storm or two is possible, but severe potential is overall low. ...High Plains... East of a deepening upper low and 40-50 kt mid-level jet over the Great Basin and Northwest, shortwave ridging will persist across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A broad lee trough is expected to sharpen through the afternoon as weak ascent from the upper trough and mid-level jet glance the western edge of the upper ridge. The strongest ascent will be focused north and west over MT where a weak surface cyclone is expected to form by Wednesday afternoon. This will help draw richer low-level moisture westward later in the afternoon/evening. The late arrival of the more robust moisture suggests buoyancy will be limited, while capping remains stout over the northern and central High Plains. Still, robust heating and sufficient low-level moistening will allow for isolated high-based thunderstorms along the length of the surface trough across eastern MT/WY and western SD. A stray gust or two is possible, but limited buoyancy and forcing suggest the severe risk is low. Farther south, a weak secondary low is expected to form over the Raton Mesa. Enhanced easterly low-level upslope flow could support isolated storms late afternoon or into early evening. However, weak subsidence and warm mid-level temperatures beneath the upper ridge suggest remnant capping is likely to remain in place, limiting storm coverage/intensity. While moderate buoyancy is expected (1500-2500 J/kg) and an isolated stronger gust is possible, overall severe potential appears rather limited. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... Beneath the upper low, broad ascent and the southerly mid-level jet will overspread modest low-level moisture ahead of a weak cold front over the Intermountain West. Filtered daytime heating between remnant cloud cover will aide in scattered storm development across the higher terrain from eastern WA/OR into northern ID and western MT Wednesday afternoon. The increase in southerly flow aloft will elongate mid and upper-level hodographs to some degree, with 20-30 kt of bulk shear expected. This could support a few stronger storms, especially over portions of central ID and into western MT where ascent will be maximized. Given the steep low and mid-level lapse rates, a few strong gusts are possible. However, the threat for more organized/persistent severe storms appears limited by weaker buoyancy (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) and moisture. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridge, currently located over the Rockies, will gradually shift into the High Plains during the latter half of the period. This flow regime will encourage lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a nocturnal LLJ is also expected across the TX Panhandle into western KS. In the absence of meaningful short waves, strong boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development as weak height rises are noted across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests convective temperatures will be breached between 21-23z as surface readings climb through the upper 80s to near 90F from west TX into eastern CO. While thunderstorms may be delayed over the plains until late afternoon, scattered convection should readily develop over the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Some of this activity will spread toward lower elevations where favorable low-level convergence is expected to aid at least a few strong-severe thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is not forecast to be particularly strong, adequate flow is expected to support some organization. Even so, storm coverage should remain isolated and a MRGL Risk will be maintained, primarily due to storm coverage and negligible large-scale support. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridge, currently located over the Rockies, will gradually shift into the High Plains during the latter half of the period. This flow regime will encourage lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a nocturnal LLJ is also expected across the TX Panhandle into western KS. In the absence of meaningful short waves, strong boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development as weak height rises are noted across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests convective temperatures will be breached between 21-23z as surface readings climb through the upper 80s to near 90F from west TX into eastern CO. While thunderstorms may be delayed over the plains until late afternoon, scattered convection should readily develop over the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Some of this activity will spread toward lower elevations where favorable low-level convergence is expected to aid at least a few strong-severe thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is not forecast to be particularly strong, adequate flow is expected to support some organization. Even so, storm coverage should remain isolated and a MRGL Risk will be maintained, primarily due to storm coverage and negligible large-scale support. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridge, currently located over the Rockies, will gradually shift into the High Plains during the latter half of the period. This flow regime will encourage lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a nocturnal LLJ is also expected across the TX Panhandle into western KS. In the absence of meaningful short waves, strong boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development as weak height rises are noted across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests convective temperatures will be breached between 21-23z as surface readings climb through the upper 80s to near 90F from west TX into eastern CO. While thunderstorms may be delayed over the plains until late afternoon, scattered convection should readily develop over the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Some of this activity will spread toward lower elevations where favorable low-level convergence is expected to aid at least a few strong-severe thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is not forecast to be particularly strong, adequate flow is expected to support some organization. Even so, storm coverage should remain isolated and a MRGL Risk will be maintained, primarily due to storm coverage and negligible large-scale support. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridge, currently located over the Rockies, will gradually shift into the High Plains during the latter half of the period. This flow regime will encourage lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a nocturnal LLJ is also expected across the TX Panhandle into western KS. In the absence of meaningful short waves, strong boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development as weak height rises are noted across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests convective temperatures will be breached between 21-23z as surface readings climb through the upper 80s to near 90F from west TX into eastern CO. While thunderstorms may be delayed over the plains until late afternoon, scattered convection should readily develop over the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Some of this activity will spread toward lower elevations where favorable low-level convergence is expected to aid at least a few strong-severe thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is not forecast to be particularly strong, adequate flow is expected to support some organization. Even so, storm coverage should remain isolated and a MRGL Risk will be maintained, primarily due to storm coverage and negligible large-scale support. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridge, currently located over the Rockies, will gradually shift into the High Plains during the latter half of the period. This flow regime will encourage lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a nocturnal LLJ is also expected across the TX Panhandle into western KS. In the absence of meaningful short waves, strong boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development as weak height rises are noted across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests convective temperatures will be breached between 21-23z as surface readings climb through the upper 80s to near 90F from west TX into eastern CO. While thunderstorms may be delayed over the plains until late afternoon, scattered convection should readily develop over the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Some of this activity will spread toward lower elevations where favorable low-level convergence is expected to aid at least a few strong-severe thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is not forecast to be particularly strong, adequate flow is expected to support some organization. Even so, storm coverage should remain isolated and a MRGL Risk will be maintained, primarily due to storm coverage and negligible large-scale support. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridge, currently located over the Rockies, will gradually shift into the High Plains during the latter half of the period. This flow regime will encourage lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a nocturnal LLJ is also expected across the TX Panhandle into western KS. In the absence of meaningful short waves, strong boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development as weak height rises are noted across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests convective temperatures will be breached between 21-23z as surface readings climb through the upper 80s to near 90F from west TX into eastern CO. While thunderstorms may be delayed over the plains until late afternoon, scattered convection should readily develop over the higher terrain by mid afternoon. Some of this activity will spread toward lower elevations where favorable low-level convergence is expected to aid at least a few strong-severe thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is not forecast to be particularly strong, adequate flow is expected to support some organization. Even so, storm coverage should remain isolated and a MRGL Risk will be maintained, primarily due to storm coverage and negligible large-scale support. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 09/09/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin a few hundred miles
east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located around 150 miles south of the southern coast
of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this
week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but
offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

WW 0608 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE BGD TO 30 SE GUY TO 45 SSE LBL TO 60 SW AVK TO 50 NNW CSM TO 10 WNW CSM. ..JEWELL..09/09/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC045-129-090440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELLIS ROGER MILLS TXC179-211-295-357-393-483-090440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRAY HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0608 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE BGD TO 30 SE GUY TO 45 SSE LBL TO 60 SW AVK TO 50 NNW CSM TO 10 WNW CSM. ..JEWELL..09/09/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC045-129-090440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELLIS ROGER MILLS TXC179-211-295-357-393-483-090440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRAY HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more