SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered
on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large
hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with
thunderstorm activity.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern
Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity
possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the
period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across
western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This
activity will continue to track eastward through the period and
intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves
north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected
along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas.
A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern
Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus
of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon.
...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period
Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as
daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization
downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across
central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level
forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection
expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north
Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the
mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears
that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by
steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This
will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of
very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk
will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens
and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable
corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across
southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote
potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into
western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for
line embedded circulations.
Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the
Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail.
At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from
multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region.
...Lower MO/OH Valleys...
Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois
and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible
Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with
the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would
be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient
shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially
a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities
low.
..15_ows.. 04/29/2025
Read more
