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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 29 17:54:06 UTC 2025.

WW 0187 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 187 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N BVX TO 35 NW POF TO 35 W FAM TO 15 ENE VIH. ..LEITMAN..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 187 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC075-121-135-291840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAWRENCE RANDOLPH SHARP ILC003-005-027-051-077-119-121-133-145-153-157-163-181-189- 291840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CLINTON FAYETTE JACKSON MADISON MARION MONROE PERRY PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR UNION WASHINGTON MOC017-023-031-035-093-099-123-133-143-157-179-181-186-187-189- 201-207-221-223-510-291840- MO Read more

MD 0602 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST IN AND MUCH OF OH INTO WESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...southeast IN and much of OH into western PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291601Z - 291730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next 1-2 hours across southeast Indiana and across much of Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, along with isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms/weak MCV over central IN has slowly intensified over the past 30 minutes of so, and a recent wind gust to 65 mph was reported near Martinsville IN. Radar trends have show increasing intensity at 5 and 7 km as convection moves into a weakly unstable and strongly shear environment. Downstream across western OH, low to mid 60s F dewpoints and temperatures warming into the mid/upper 70s at midday are supporting weak destabilization. Additional heating/moistening and steepening of low-level lapse rates into the afternoon should support eventual increase in strong/severe convection across the MCD area. Unidirectional flow, with veering low-level winds, generally will favor line segments and severe wind gusts are expected to be the primary hazard. Isolated large hail also is possible, especially from central Ohio northeast toward western PA where a plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates resides. Some speed shear in the lowest 1-2 km will support small but curved low-level hodographs. While a tornado or two is possible, this threat is expected to be limited compared to the severe/damaging wind potential. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39248658 39638649 40098579 40348546 40968390 41398225 41398111 41328038 41157998 40797983 40248005 39938035 39618081 39318139 39198216 38968445 38928601 39098646 39248658 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more