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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

MD 0604 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PERMIAN BASIN INTO TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0604 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...Permian Basin into Texas South Plains...western North Texas...parts of southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291810Z - 292015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development appears likely in the next 2-3 hours. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the primary concerns. Tornadoes will be possible particularly in western North Texas. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...A complex surface pattern exists across the southern Plains this afternoon. A synoptic cold front has pushed through much of the High Plains and extends northeastward through southwest/central Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is also evident near the Red River in Oklahoma from an earlier complex of thunderstorms. Dewpoints of mid/upper 60s F have reach into western North Texas near the intersection of these boundaries, with a weak moisture gradient to the southwest until a more obvious dryline near Fort Stockton. Though capping still remains, cumulus towers have begun to develop in the Rolling Plains per day cloud phase imagery. Additionally, convection has also developed in the Davis Mountains and is moving northeast. With continued heating, storm coverage should increase in the next 2-3 hours along and south of the cold front/outflow boundary. Model guidance has been rather consistent in the preferred zone of initiation being within the Rolling Plains first. All severe hazards would be possible given the expected supercellular storm mode. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the most likely hazards. The tornado threat is less certain. With the cold front continuing to shift slowly southward, there is potential for storms to become undercut. Low-level shear will also not be particularly strong until the low-level jet increase several hours from now. That being said, there is a mesoscale zone in western North Texas near the cold front/outflow boundary intersection where easterly surface winds and greater moisture will promote a greater tornado threat. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31690192 32330237 33410197 34419917 34819796 34799772 34499742 33989737 33329854 32869934 31490131 31690192 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more