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MD 0608 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH PLAINS INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0608 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...Portions of South Plains into western North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190... Valid 292055Z - 292230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190 continues. SUMMARY...A localized corridor of tornado potential may develop over the next few hours. Storms will need to root along/east of the surface boundary for this potential to be realized. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells, some of which have produced greater than 2 inch hail, are generally rooted just on the cool side of the surface cold front. If storms can remain discrete and track with a more eastward motion, warm/moist easterly surface winds are in the warm sector. Greater tornado potential would exist should that scenario occur. Given at least a modest increase in low-level flow this evening, it is possible the boundary moves slightly northwestward. Trends will be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32970169 33450131 34009979 33919933 33549957 32970034 32870105 32970169 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0607 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292035Z - 292230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms that are currently elevated may produce marginally severe hail. A watch is not anticipated in the short term, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Storms in central Oklahoma have remained elevated and sub-severe so far. The observed 18Z Norman sounding showed modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, but relatively weak buoyancy due to cloud cover/precipitation. This activity will generally move to the east/northeast behind an outflow boundary. Recent surface observations have shown some airmass modification/recovery in east-central Oklahoma where temperatures have warmed back into the low 70s. There is at least low potential that storms nearest to the outflow boundary could become near to surface based. A locally greater severe threat would be possible in that scenario. Overall, however, storms will primarily be capable of marginally severe hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34979457 34769485 34579564 34649648 34839687 35269723 36169746 36339747 36479716 36539624 36409425 35859399 35349438 34979457 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0606 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...189... FOR SOUTHERN IL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH.
Mesoscale Discussion 0606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...southern IL/IN into southwest OH. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188...189... Valid 292027Z - 292230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188, 189 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts will move from southern Illinois into southern Indiana the next 1-2 hours. Additional severe risk may redevelop into southwest Ohio this evening. DISCUSSION...A mature MCS continues to move from southern IL into southern IN this afternoon. This activity has sporadically produced damaging gusts and isolated hail over the last couple of hours, with a couple areas of line-embedded rotation also noted. These storms should maintain intensity as it moves east across a moderately unstable airmass with steepening low-level lapse rates continuing to support damaging wind potential across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189. By evening, this MCS is expected to approach southwest OH and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188. The airmass across this area has shown signs of recovery from a midday cluster of severe storms now approaching western PA. Temperatures have rebounded into the mid/upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. This area could support a continued severe risk into this evening. As such, watch clearance has not been recommended as redevelopment of new convection is possible. Likewise, the cluster moving into southern IN also may approach this area in the next 2-3 hours. ..Leitman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 39028811 39978441 39828393 39468362 39168363 38878409 38558476 37958663 37678822 37808866 38618855 39028811 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 193 SEVERE TSTM KY 292225Z - 300500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central and Eastern Kentucky * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will progress eastward across the region this evening with isolated wind damage as the main severe risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of Bowling Green KY to 40 miles south of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...WW 191...WW 192... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more