Aggregator

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-300740- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-059-079-101-107-115-125-135-151-165-169-173-207-219- 227-253-263-269-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-415-417-431-433-441- 445-447-495-501-300740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CALLAHAN COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD JONES KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-300740- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-059-079-101-107-115-125-135-151-165-169-173-207-219- 227-253-263-269-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-415-417-431-433-441- 445-447-495-501-300740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CALLAHAN COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD JONES KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST AR...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the southern Plains today. A surface low will move southwest into northeast TX, along an outflow-reinforced front. Farther east, a warm front will move northward across parts of the mid MS Valley, and remain nearly stationary into parts of the Mid Atlantic. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks... An MCS may be ongoing during the morning near the Red River Valley vicinity. This MCS may reintensify as it moves into a moist and unstable environment from eastern OK into western AR, accompanied by a threat for damaging winds, along with a localized hail/tornado threat. The effective front/outflow position will be modulated by this potential MCS, but this boundary will likely reside somewhere across north-central/northeast TX during the afternoon. Near/south of the boundary, diurnal heating of the moist airmass will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, with deep-layer shear profiles supporting supercell development. Large to very large hail will be a threat with any initial supercells. Also, with the approach of the mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low, low-level flow is expected to remain rather strong through the day, supporting sufficient SRH for a tornado threat with any surface-based supercells, including some localized strong tornado potential. While uncertainty remains regarding mesoscale details regarding the outflow boundary, there is sufficient confidence in a corridor of supercell development for the addition of an Enhanced Risk. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to the remnant midlevel low. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... An MCV may move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys during the day, in the vicinity of the northward-moving warm front. Scattered storms may develop near the front during the afternoon, within a moist and destabilizing airmass. There is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for early convection/cloudiness to disrupt destabilization in this area, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support robust storm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST AR...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the southern Plains today. A surface low will move southwest into northeast TX, along an outflow-reinforced front. Farther east, a warm front will move northward across parts of the mid MS Valley, and remain nearly stationary into parts of the Mid Atlantic. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks... An MCS may be ongoing during the morning near the Red River Valley vicinity. This MCS may reintensify as it moves into a moist and unstable environment from eastern OK into western AR, accompanied by a threat for damaging winds, along with a localized hail/tornado threat. The effective front/outflow position will be modulated by this potential MCS, but this boundary will likely reside somewhere across north-central/northeast TX during the afternoon. Near/south of the boundary, diurnal heating of the moist airmass will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, with deep-layer shear profiles supporting supercell development. Large to very large hail will be a threat with any initial supercells. Also, with the approach of the mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low, low-level flow is expected to remain rather strong through the day, supporting sufficient SRH for a tornado threat with any surface-based supercells, including some localized strong tornado potential. While uncertainty remains regarding mesoscale details regarding the outflow boundary, there is sufficient confidence in a corridor of supercell development for the addition of an Enhanced Risk. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to the remnant midlevel low. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... An MCV may move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys during the day, in the vicinity of the northward-moving warm front. Scattered storms may develop near the front during the afternoon, within a moist and destabilizing airmass. There is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for early convection/cloudiness to disrupt destabilization in this area, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support robust storm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST AR...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the southern Plains today. A surface low will move southwest into northeast TX, along an outflow-reinforced front. Farther east, a warm front will move northward across parts of the mid MS Valley, and remain nearly stationary into parts of the Mid Atlantic. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks... An MCS may be ongoing during the morning near the Red River Valley vicinity. This MCS may reintensify as it moves into a moist and unstable environment from eastern OK into western AR, accompanied by a threat for damaging winds, along with a localized hail/tornado threat. The effective front/outflow position will be modulated by this potential MCS, but this boundary will likely reside somewhere across north-central/northeast TX during the afternoon. Near/south of the boundary, diurnal heating of the moist airmass will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, with deep-layer shear profiles supporting supercell development. Large to very large hail will be a threat with any initial supercells. Also, with the approach of the mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low, low-level flow is expected to remain rather strong through the day, supporting sufficient SRH for a tornado threat with any surface-based supercells, including some localized strong tornado potential. While uncertainty remains regarding mesoscale details regarding the outflow boundary, there is sufficient confidence in a corridor of supercell development for the addition of an Enhanced Risk. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to the remnant midlevel low. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... An MCV may move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys during the day, in the vicinity of the northward-moving warm front. Scattered storms may develop near the front during the afternoon, within a moist and destabilizing airmass. There is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for early convection/cloudiness to disrupt destabilization in this area, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support robust storm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST AR...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the southern Plains today. A surface low will move southwest into northeast TX, along an outflow-reinforced front. Farther east, a warm front will move northward across parts of the mid MS Valley, and remain nearly stationary into parts of the Mid Atlantic. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks... An MCS may be ongoing during the morning near the Red River Valley vicinity. This MCS may reintensify as it moves into a moist and unstable environment from eastern OK into western AR, accompanied by a threat for damaging winds, along with a localized hail/tornado threat. The effective front/outflow position will be modulated by this potential MCS, but this boundary will likely reside somewhere across north-central/northeast TX during the afternoon. Near/south of the boundary, diurnal heating of the moist airmass will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, with deep-layer shear profiles supporting supercell development. Large to very large hail will be a threat with any initial supercells. Also, with the approach of the mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low, low-level flow is expected to remain rather strong through the day, supporting sufficient SRH for a tornado threat with any surface-based supercells, including some localized strong tornado potential. While uncertainty remains regarding mesoscale details regarding the outflow boundary, there is sufficient confidence in a corridor of supercell development for the addition of an Enhanced Risk. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to the remnant midlevel low. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... An MCV may move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys during the day, in the vicinity of the northward-moving warm front. Scattered storms may develop near the front during the afternoon, within a moist and destabilizing airmass. There is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for early convection/cloudiness to disrupt destabilization in this area, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support robust storm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST AR...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the southern Plains today. A surface low will move southwest into northeast TX, along an outflow-reinforced front. Farther east, a warm front will move northward across parts of the mid MS Valley, and remain nearly stationary into parts of the Mid Atlantic. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks... An MCS may be ongoing during the morning near the Red River Valley vicinity. This MCS may reintensify as it moves into a moist and unstable environment from eastern OK into western AR, accompanied by a threat for damaging winds, along with a localized hail/tornado threat. The effective front/outflow position will be modulated by this potential MCS, but this boundary will likely reside somewhere across north-central/northeast TX during the afternoon. Near/south of the boundary, diurnal heating of the moist airmass will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, with deep-layer shear profiles supporting supercell development. Large to very large hail will be a threat with any initial supercells. Also, with the approach of the mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low, low-level flow is expected to remain rather strong through the day, supporting sufficient SRH for a tornado threat with any surface-based supercells, including some localized strong tornado potential. While uncertainty remains regarding mesoscale details regarding the outflow boundary, there is sufficient confidence in a corridor of supercell development for the addition of an Enhanced Risk. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to the remnant midlevel low. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... An MCV may move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys during the day, in the vicinity of the northward-moving warm front. Scattered storms may develop near the front during the afternoon, within a moist and destabilizing airmass. There is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for early convection/cloudiness to disrupt destabilization in this area, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support robust storm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/30/2025 Read more