Tropical Storm Sean Public Advisory Number 4

5 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2023 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112035 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sean Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2023 ...SEAN STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 35.3W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sean was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 35.3 West. Sean is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Camposano/Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Sean Forecast Advisory Number 4

5 months 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 11 2023 000 WTNT24 KNHC 112034 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 2100 UTC WED OCT 11 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 35.3W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 35.3W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 34.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.1N 36.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.7N 38.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.4N 39.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.3N 41.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.3N 42.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.4N 43.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.1N 46.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.7N 50.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 35.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CAMPOSANO/CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102324
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
An area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
is producing limited and disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system is forecast to merge with a developing
frontal boundary over the western Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday,
and tropical cyclone formation is not expected. Regardless of
tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast to produce
gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico by
tomorrow, and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast by the
latter portion of this week. For more information, see products from
your local National Weather Service office, and high seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092333
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has changed
little in organization since earlier today. However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the
system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
continues to produce an area of disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
favorable for some additional development while the system moves
slowly northward during the next day or so. The low is forecast to
merge with a frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico by
Wednesday morning. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the
system is forecast to produce winds to gale force over portions of
the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A low-latitude tropical wave located several hundred miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072323
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave located just off the west coast of
Africa continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of next week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 3 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062313
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of
next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 3 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062313
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of
next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 50A

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 052346 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 50A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 800 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023 ...RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 66.0W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Philippe. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 66.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and then reach the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday, but Philippe is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning early Friday morning. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected across Bermuda through Friday. This rainfall could result in flash flooding. For portions of New York and New England, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected as the storm moves through the region Saturday and Saturday night. Isolated to scattered instances of urban and flash flooding are expected. For portions of Southeast Canada, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe as it moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered instances of urban and flash flooding are expected. SURF: Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will increase further tonight as Philippe approaches the island. Swells are also reaching portions of the southeastern U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east coast to Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 3 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052342
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Bermuda.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast
of Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, some slow development of
this system is possible as it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 50

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052053 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023 Philippe's convective structure is gradually evolving as it begins to run into an old frontal zone to its north. A band of rain is developing over the northern part of the circulation along the old front and is beginning to move over Bermuda, while other deep convection extends east and southeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on this morning's aircraft reconnaissance data. Another mission is scheduled into Philippe this evening. The current motion is a little faster toward the north, or 360/12 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. Philippe should continue accelerating northward over the western Atlantic during the next 60 hours while moving between a mid-level high over the central Atlantic and a deep-layer trough off the southeastern U.S. coast. On this track, the center will approach the coasts of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and eastern Maine Saturday night. After that time, Philippe is expected to turn north-northwestward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, and it is forecast to become absorbed by another area of low pressure over eastern Quebec late Sunday. The NHC track forecast generally lies close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids during the entire forecast period. Diagnoses from the SHIPS model suggest that southwesterly shear will increase to 30 kt or more over the next 12-24 hours. Because of that, no intensification is anticipated in the short term. Extratropical transition is likely to begin on Friday as Philippe moves into and tightens the thickness gradient to its north, and that process could cause the storm to strengthen a little due to baroclinic influences. This scenario is supported by the GFS and ECMWF global models, as well as LGEM, IVCN, and HCCA consensus aids. Extratropical transition is forecast to be complete by 48 hours (Saturday afternoon) as Philippe becomes fully frontal, but the intensity is unlikely to change much before the center reaches land. Weakening is forecast once Philippe moves inland, and it's likely that the strongest winds from the system will occur on the eastern side of the circulation, primarily over parts of Atlantic Canada. Based on the forecast for Philippe to become post-tropical by Saturday, and after coordination with National Weather Service offices in New England and the Canadian Hurricane Centre, the current plan is for hazards in New England and Atlantic Canada to be handled via local non-tropical statements and not issue tropical watches or warnings. We will continually assess this plan if the forecast evolves and tropical watches or warnings become warranted. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning early Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the island today into early Friday. This could produce flash flooding. 2. Philippe is expected to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and New England as a post-tropical cyclone this weekend. Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests in those areas should be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall and monitor statements from their local weather office. The rainfall could produce isolated to scattered instances of urban and flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 27.0N 66.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 29.2N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 32.5N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 35.5N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 39.0N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0600Z 43.8N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1800Z 48.6N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 50

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 000 FONT12 KNHC 052050 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) X(32) X(32) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 2 58(60) 6(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) BERMUDA 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 50

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 000 WTNT22 KNHC 052050 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 66.2W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 66.2W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 66.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.2N 65.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.5N 65.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.5N 66.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 39.0N 66.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.8N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 48.6N 71.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 66.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 46A

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023 441 WTNT32 KNHC 042346 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 46A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 800 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023 ...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 66.0W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM N OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Philippe. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 66.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near Bermuda on Friday, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Some strengthening is possible on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches expected through Friday. These rainfall amounts may result in scattered flash flooding. Rainfall across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will continue to diminish during the next few hours. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 3 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042343
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located a few hundred miles north of the Virgin
Islands.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Some slow development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
Checked
4 years 5 months ago
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
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