National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 02:50:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 03:22:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 02:50:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 02:50:43 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 02:50:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 02:50:43 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060249 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Strong convection continues to persist in the northeastern quadrant of Chantal, with the center located on the southwestern edge of the burst. This convection has been causing a gradual increase in organization of the storm, with an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently reporting 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt, which equate to about 45 kt at the surface. This data is also close to derived velocity radar data from Wilmington, showing peak 8000 ft winds of about 55 kt, and TAFB's latest satellite classification of 45 kt. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with these values. The current motion estimate is 350/7, and Chantal could turn to the north-northwest before landfall due to a narrow mid-level ridge. A turn to the northeast is expected later on Sunday as Chantal becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of the ridge. There is little time left for any intensification, and Chantal should make landfall within the next 6 hours at about the present intensity (45-50 kt). Steady weakening will occur after landfall with the loss of the warm water heat source, and Chantal is expected to dissipate over eastern North Carolina by early Monday. The track forecast was nudged to the east, with little change to the intensity forecast. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina will cause flash flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 32.7N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 060248 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 6 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 10 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WILMINGTON NC 34 14 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 34 31 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FLORENCE SC 34 13 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 53 4(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) MYRTLE BEACH 34 60 3(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GEORGETOWN SC 34 56 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CHARLESTON SC 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060248 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM CHANTAL SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 78.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 78.8 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin overnight, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Radar and aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening forecast after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force dropsonde data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM CHANTAL SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 32.7, -78.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060247 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 78.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 23:42:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 23:42:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 23:42:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052342 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 78.7W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 32.3, -78.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

836
ABNT20 KNHC 052313
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located off the coast of the southeastern United
States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 20:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 20:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 20:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 20:34:34 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 111 FONT13 KNHC 052033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 16 4(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 34 14 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 34 35 4(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) FLORENCE SC 34 7 10(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 44 10(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) LITTLE RIVER 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 52 12(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MYRTLE BEACH 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 46 12(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CHARLESTON SC 34 24 6(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CHARLESTON SC 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 398 WTNT43 KNHC 052033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 The satellite presentation of Chantal has not changed much throughout the day with convective banding and a concentrated area of deep convection located over the eastern semicircle of the storm. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated Chantal through midday found a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 51 kt which supported the increase in winds to 40 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. With no significant change in structure since that time, the intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this evening. The moderate shear that has been affecting Chantal is forecast to decrease some this evening, however drier mid-level air appears to be being entrained into the western part of the circulation. Therefore only slight strengthening is predicted before Chantal reaches the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday. After landfall, steady weakening should occur and the system is expected to open up into a trough by Monday. Recent fixes show that Chantal has begun moving a little faster toward the north with an initial motion estimate of 360/6. The track guidance suggests that the storm will turn north- northwestward between a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a narrow mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. A turn to the northeast is expected after landfall as Chantal becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCA multi-model consensus, which is close to the previous NHC forecast. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas will cause flash flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 31.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 460 WTNT33 KNHC 052033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...CHANTAL MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 78.7W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown