National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 800 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 ...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 59.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches could be required tonight or on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 59.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A track toward the northwest is forecast through Monday followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), primarily east and southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday: Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches Rest of the Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by Monday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN

...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Oct 1 the center of Philippe was located near 16.6, -59.0 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012313
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located a couple of hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over the
central subtropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 20:40:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 21:29:41 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 000 WTNT43 KNHC 012039 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 Rina is barely a tropical cyclone. Its associated sheared convection collapsed a few hours ago, and the fully exposed low-level center has continued to lose definition based on recent GOES derived motion wind (DMW) vectors. Assuming some weakening has occurred since the earlier scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion of Rina is still northwestward (325/14 kt), but the shallow cyclone is expected to turn northward soon while moving around the western extent of a low-level ridge. The continued northwesterly shear and dry air in the surrounding environment are expected to limit convective development going forward, and Rina is likely to degenerate to a remnant low or open into a trough during the next 12-24 h. No notable changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 26.2N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 28.2N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...RINA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 1 the center of Rina was located near 26.2, -55.5 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 000 WTNT33 KNHC 012038 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rina Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 ...RINA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 55.5W ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rina was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 55.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Rina is expected to become a remnant low tonight and dissipate on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023 000 FONT13 KNHC 012038 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 2100 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 20:38:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 21:23:21 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023 000 WTNT23 KNHC 012038 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 2100 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 55.5W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 55.5W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.2N 55.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 55.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 000 WTNT42 KNHC 012034 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 The structure of Philippe has not changed much since this morning. A large area of deep convection remains in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone, with a small burst near the center. The initial wind speed is held at 45 kt, per the latest satellite classifications, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be inside the storm tonight. The southward progress of Philippe has thankfully stopped today, and recent fixes show it moving between west-northwest and northwest at about 6 kt. A building ridge well to the northeast should steer the storm generally northwestward tonight and Monday, with a turn to the north forecast on Tuesday while the system moves around the western periphery of the ridge. Eventually a faster north-northeastward motion is anticipated at long range as the storm enters the mid-latitudes. While the track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the east, this should not be interpreted as the end of any threat to the Leeward Islands with still some models near those islands. Notably, a very strong rain band on the southern side of Philippe will be very close to moving over the northern Leeward Islands, and it could turn out that rainfall and flooding would be the main hazard of the storm. There's been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning from the last cycle, with strong shear near Philippe expected to limit intensification during the next couple of days. There remains a decent chance that the shear could relax by the middle of the week, allowing Philippe to become a hurricane after it recurves into the subtropical central Atlantic. Guidance has been inconsistent at long range with the storm, so the best course of action seems to be to hold the forecast steady to see if any notable trends emerge. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night while Philippe passes near or just northeast of the area, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this system as additional watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered flash flooding, particularly across Barbuda and Antigua, through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.4N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.0N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.7N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 18.7N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 19.9N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 21.4N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 23.1N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 26.9N 61.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 30.0N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023 000 FONT12 KNHC 012034 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAINT JOHN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 1( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) SABA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 1( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) BARBUDA 34 1 14(15) 22(37) 3(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) BARBUDA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) GUADELOUPE 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 012033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO PHILIPPE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 59.0W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches could be required tonight or on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 59.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A track toward the northwest is forecast through Monday followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), primarily east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday: Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches Rest of the Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by Monday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO PHILIPPE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 1 the center of Philippe was located near 16.4, -59.0 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023 000 WTNT22 KNHC 012032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.0W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 185NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.0W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 59.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.7N 60.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.9N 62.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.4N 62.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.1N 62.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 26.9N 61.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 30.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 59.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the
northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over
the central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:48:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 21:29:05 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 000 WTNT43 KNHC 302047 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 Visible satellite imagery shows the exposed center of Rina is well displaced from deep convection, as strong northwesterly shear continues to impact the storm. The intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the subjective and objective satellite estimates. The intensity forecast shows gradual weakening through Sunday. Given Rina's structural trends today, and model simulated IR satellite data over the next couple of days, the forecast shows Rina degenerating into a remnant low Sunday evening. The strong shear as diagnosed by SHIPS is expected to continue impacting Rina and its remnants until the cyclone dissipates early next week. Even if the shear isn't enough to prevent convective reformation, Rina will likely struggle with dry mid-level relative humidities. Rina is now moving northwestward at a slightly faster 12 kt. The storm or its remnant low should continue to track northwestward and then northward along the northern periphery of Philippe for the next couple of days. The new track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.6N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 23.5N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 25.1N 54.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 27.0N 55.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z 29.0N 55.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 000 FONT13 KNHC 302046 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER MAHONEY/BLAKE

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 000 WTNT23 KNHC 302046 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 51.5W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 51.5W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 51.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.5N 53.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.1N 54.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.0N 55.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.0N 55.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAHONEY/BLAKE