Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out from the Sabine River Valley to the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level cutoff low will meander over New England while upper ridging prevails over the western and central U.S. on Friday. As surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes and Interior West, weak surface troughing will encourage low-level moisture return across the Plains states. With daytime heating, thunderstorms may develop off of a remnant outflow boundary across central TX into the Sabine River Valley that was left behind by storms from Day 2. Storms are also expected to develop off of the higher terrain across the High Plains given modest upslope low-level flow. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates/vertical wind shear, will support isolated strong thunderstorms across the southern High Plains toward the Sabine River Valley (along the outflow boundary). Sub-severe wind/hail should accompany the stronger storms. However, mediocre thermodynamic vertical profiles (evident via forecast soundings), suggest that severe storms should be quite sparse, with no severe probabilities introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind and hail threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as an upper ridge builds across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A mid-level impulse will rotate around the upper trough and traverse the southern Plains/Southeast through the period, encouraging the southward sagging of a surface cold front. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely across portions of the southern Plains into the Arklatex ahead of this front. The best chance for stronger thunderstorms will be during the afternoon, where storms will benefit from an optimal combination of modest buoyancy and vertical wind shear. ...Southern High Plains into the Arklatex... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere along the eastern fringes of the southern Plains. An outflow boundary is expected to sag southward, in tandem with or just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, acting as a source of lift to rejuvenate thunderstorm activity with afternoon heating. Surface temperatures will warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s to 70 F surface dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly surface winds, veering to northwesterly while strengthening with height, will support 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary in this environment could become strong, from central OK to the AR/LA border. A few of the more intense storms may be accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind and hail threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as an upper ridge builds across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A mid-level impulse will rotate around the upper trough and traverse the southern Plains/Southeast through the period, encouraging the southward sagging of a surface cold front. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely across portions of the southern Plains into the Arklatex ahead of this front. The best chance for stronger thunderstorms will be during the afternoon, where storms will benefit from an optimal combination of modest buoyancy and vertical wind shear. ...Southern High Plains into the Arklatex... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere along the eastern fringes of the southern Plains. An outflow boundary is expected to sag southward, in tandem with or just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, acting as a source of lift to rejuvenate thunderstorm activity with afternoon heating. Surface temperatures will warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s to 70 F surface dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly surface winds, veering to northwesterly while strengthening with height, will support 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary in this environment could become strong, from central OK to the AR/LA border. A few of the more intense storms may be accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind and hail threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as an upper ridge builds across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A mid-level impulse will rotate around the upper trough and traverse the southern Plains/Southeast through the period, encouraging the southward sagging of a surface cold front. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely across portions of the southern Plains into the Arklatex ahead of this front. The best chance for stronger thunderstorms will be during the afternoon, where storms will benefit from an optimal combination of modest buoyancy and vertical wind shear. ...Southern High Plains into the Arklatex... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere along the eastern fringes of the southern Plains. An outflow boundary is expected to sag southward, in tandem with or just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, acting as a source of lift to rejuvenate thunderstorm activity with afternoon heating. Surface temperatures will warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s to 70 F surface dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly surface winds, veering to northwesterly while strengthening with height, will support 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary in this environment could become strong, from central OK to the AR/LA border. A few of the more intense storms may be accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. today, though a few stronger storms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be present across the eastern CONUS today with weak ridging across the western CONUS. Surface high pressure will weaken slightly and shift east across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. A cold front along the Gulf Coast will extend into the Central Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability and shear is forecast to develop across southern Minnesota this afternoon. A lead shortwave trough (currently across north Dakota) is expected to move through southern Minnesota around mid-day with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. However, by the evening, an additional shortwave trough (traversing the western edge of the broader trough) may result in isolated storm development by late afternoon/early evening. Some forecast sounding, particularly the NAM, would support a few strong to isolated severe storms with a threat for large hail. However, consensus guidance is not as unstable and therefore, any severe threat may remain mostly isolated. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be included at this time. ...Central High Plains into western Kansas... Thunderstorms across the central High Plains may congeal into a cluster as they move into western Kansas this evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (35 to 45 knots) on the southwest periphery of the large-scale trough will provide favorable deep-layer shear across the region. However, despite the favorable shear, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit overall instability. A few stronger storms capable of damaging winds will be possible, but this threat is expected to be too low/limited to warrant severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. today, though a few stronger storms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be present across the eastern CONUS today with weak ridging across the western CONUS. Surface high pressure will weaken slightly and shift east across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. A cold front along the Gulf Coast will extend into the Central Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability and shear is forecast to develop across southern Minnesota this afternoon. A lead shortwave trough (currently across north Dakota) is expected to move through southern Minnesota around mid-day with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. However, by the evening, an additional shortwave trough (traversing the western edge of the broader trough) may result in isolated storm development by late afternoon/early evening. Some forecast sounding, particularly the NAM, would support a few strong to isolated severe storms with a threat for large hail. However, consensus guidance is not as unstable and therefore, any severe threat may remain mostly isolated. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be included at this time. ...Central High Plains into western Kansas... Thunderstorms across the central High Plains may congeal into a cluster as they move into western Kansas this evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (35 to 45 knots) on the southwest periphery of the large-scale trough will provide favorable deep-layer shear across the region. However, despite the favorable shear, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit overall instability. A few stronger storms capable of damaging winds will be possible, but this threat is expected to be too low/limited to warrant severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. today, though a few stronger storms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be present across the eastern CONUS today with weak ridging across the western CONUS. Surface high pressure will weaken slightly and shift east across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. A cold front along the Gulf Coast will extend into the Central Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability and shear is forecast to develop across southern Minnesota this afternoon. A lead shortwave trough (currently across north Dakota) is expected to move through southern Minnesota around mid-day with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. However, by the evening, an additional shortwave trough (traversing the western edge of the broader trough) may result in isolated storm development by late afternoon/early evening. Some forecast sounding, particularly the NAM, would support a few strong to isolated severe storms with a threat for large hail. However, consensus guidance is not as unstable and therefore, any severe threat may remain mostly isolated. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be included at this time. ...Central High Plains into western Kansas... Thunderstorms across the central High Plains may congeal into a cluster as they move into western Kansas this evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (35 to 45 knots) on the southwest periphery of the large-scale trough will provide favorable deep-layer shear across the region. However, despite the favorable shear, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit overall instability. A few stronger storms capable of damaging winds will be possible, but this threat is expected to be too low/limited to warrant severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. today, though a few stronger storms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be present across the eastern CONUS today with weak ridging across the western CONUS. Surface high pressure will weaken slightly and shift east across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. A cold front along the Gulf Coast will extend into the Central Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability and shear is forecast to develop across southern Minnesota this afternoon. A lead shortwave trough (currently across north Dakota) is expected to move through southern Minnesota around mid-day with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. However, by the evening, an additional shortwave trough (traversing the western edge of the broader trough) may result in isolated storm development by late afternoon/early evening. Some forecast sounding, particularly the NAM, would support a few strong to isolated severe storms with a threat for large hail. However, consensus guidance is not as unstable and therefore, any severe threat may remain mostly isolated. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be included at this time. ...Central High Plains into western Kansas... Thunderstorms across the central High Plains may congeal into a cluster as they move into western Kansas this evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (35 to 45 knots) on the southwest periphery of the large-scale trough will provide favorable deep-layer shear across the region. However, despite the favorable shear, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit overall instability. A few stronger storms capable of damaging winds will be possible, but this threat is expected to be too low/limited to warrant severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... Mostly unorganized thunderstorm activity has been prevalent across the western CONUS this evening. A few stronger storms and isolated stronger cores have been present. However, the severe potential has been limited and will remain so through the overnight period. ..Bentley.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... Mostly unorganized thunderstorm activity has been prevalent across the western CONUS this evening. A few stronger storms and isolated stronger cores have been present. However, the severe potential has been limited and will remain so through the overnight period. ..Bentley.. 08/27/2025 Read more