Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... Isolated strong storms remain possible in the Four Corners vicinity this afternoon. Observed 18Z soundings from Tucson and Flagstaff indicate relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and marginal effective shear. Areas of stronger surface heating could promote stronger outflow winds, but organized severe storms are still unlikely. Only minor modifications were made to the general thunder area based on current observations. Additional forecast details are in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS today, with surface high pressure dominating much of the central/eastern CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening along/south of a surface cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula and central/south TX. However, weak flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat across these regions with this activity. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop today across much of the interior western CONUS, as upper ridging weakens over the Southwest and multiple weak mid-level perturbations move north-northeastward across the Sierras and Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms this morning across the Central Valley in CA will be in a relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates compared to locations farther east over the Great Basin potentially supporting small hail with the stronger cores. Still, shear is expected to remain modest at best with westward extent, which should limit updraft organization and overall severe potential. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur with any convection that can develop over parts of interior southern CA into the lower CO River Valley, particularly where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer away from ongoing cloud cover. The potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds still appears low across this area, as it will be in a generally subsident regime behind a weak mid-level shortwave trough advancing northward from southern NV across the Great Basin this afternoon. Finally, an occasional/very isolated strong to severe gust cannot be ruled out across the Four Corners region this afternoon, as convection develops along the Mogollon Rim in northern AZ and subsequently spreads north-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, deep-layer shear appears too marginal to include low severe wind probabilities with this update. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are possible with this activity. At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The IsoDryT areas were merged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. High-based showers with sporadic lightning may be ongoing early tomorrow morning across portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely farther south in the Oregon Cascades into northern California, and deep pyroconvection remains possible on any very active large fire in this area. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana due to breezy easterly winds amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday), though a few stronger storms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible. ...SD/MN/IA Vicinity... A broad upper trough will be in place from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a persistent mid/upper northwest flow regime across the region. Forecast guidance suggests a weak shortwave impulse will move across the eastern Dakotas and MN/IA during the morning/early afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak front will develop southward, extending generally west to east across eastern SD into southern MN by peak heating. Weak southerly low-level flow will promote shallow boundary layer moisture, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s along/ahead of the surface boundary. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest, but weak instability (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast. Some early-day showers and clouds may linger, but isolated thunderstorms will likely develop during mid to late afternoon near the surface boundary from far eastern SD into southern MN. Vertically veering wind profiles, with strengthening northwest flow through the mid/upper levels will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-35 kt range. Forecast hodographs also appear elongated/straight. While 500 mb temperatures are forecast in the -10 to -12 C range, some warming around 700 mb is apparent in some forecast soundings. While an organized storm or two may become strong within a favorable shear parameter space, it is uncertain if robust updrafts will be maintained given marginal thermodynamics and some contamination to the environment from early-day activity. An isolated strong gust or small hail may be possible with the strongest storms for a couple hours during the late afternoon or early evening, but overall severe potential looks limited at this time. ...Central High Plains... South to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northwest across the central High Plains beneath modest upper ridging over the western U.S. Daytime heating and a developing lee-trough will provide focus for thunderstorm development by late afternoon along the CO/southeast WY Front Range. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but sufficient for MLCAPE in the 500-1200 J/kg range. Modestly increasing westerly mid/upper flow will support 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes and somewhat elongated hodographs. A couple of strong storms capable of sub-severe wind gusts and hail will be possible as convection develops east/southeast into the eastern CO and western KS vicinity through the evening. Overall, severe potential appears limited at this time given the modest thermodynamic and kinematic environment. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday), though a few stronger storms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible. ...SD/MN/IA Vicinity... A broad upper trough will be in place from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a persistent mid/upper northwest flow regime across the region. Forecast guidance suggests a weak shortwave impulse will move across the eastern Dakotas and MN/IA during the morning/early afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak front will develop southward, extending generally west to east across eastern SD into southern MN by peak heating. Weak southerly low-level flow will promote shallow boundary layer moisture, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s along/ahead of the surface boundary. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest, but weak instability (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast. Some early-day showers and clouds may linger, but isolated thunderstorms will likely develop during mid to late afternoon near the surface boundary from far eastern SD into southern MN. Vertically veering wind profiles, with strengthening northwest flow through the mid/upper levels will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-35 kt range. Forecast hodographs also appear elongated/straight. While 500 mb temperatures are forecast in the -10 to -12 C range, some warming around 700 mb is apparent in some forecast soundings. While an organized storm or two may become strong within a favorable shear parameter space, it is uncertain if robust updrafts will be maintained given marginal thermodynamics and some contamination to the environment from early-day activity. An isolated strong gust or small hail may be possible with the strongest storms for a couple hours during the late afternoon or early evening, but overall severe potential looks limited at this time. ...Central High Plains... South to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northwest across the central High Plains beneath modest upper ridging over the western U.S. Daytime heating and a developing lee-trough will provide focus for thunderstorm development by late afternoon along the CO/southeast WY Front Range. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but sufficient for MLCAPE in the 500-1200 J/kg range. Modestly increasing westerly mid/upper flow will support 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes and somewhat elongated hodographs. A couple of strong storms capable of sub-severe wind gusts and hail will be possible as convection develops east/southeast into the eastern CO and western KS vicinity through the evening. Overall, severe potential appears limited at this time given the modest thermodynamic and kinematic environment. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday), though a few stronger storms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible. ...SD/MN/IA Vicinity... A broad upper trough will be in place from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a persistent mid/upper northwest flow regime across the region. Forecast guidance suggests a weak shortwave impulse will move across the eastern Dakotas and MN/IA during the morning/early afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak front will develop southward, extending generally west to east across eastern SD into southern MN by peak heating. Weak southerly low-level flow will promote shallow boundary layer moisture, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s along/ahead of the surface boundary. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest, but weak instability (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast. Some early-day showers and clouds may linger, but isolated thunderstorms will likely develop during mid to late afternoon near the surface boundary from far eastern SD into southern MN. Vertically veering wind profiles, with strengthening northwest flow through the mid/upper levels will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-35 kt range. Forecast hodographs also appear elongated/straight. While 500 mb temperatures are forecast in the -10 to -12 C range, some warming around 700 mb is apparent in some forecast soundings. While an organized storm or two may become strong within a favorable shear parameter space, it is uncertain if robust updrafts will be maintained given marginal thermodynamics and some contamination to the environment from early-day activity. An isolated strong gust or small hail may be possible with the strongest storms for a couple hours during the late afternoon or early evening, but overall severe potential looks limited at this time. ...Central High Plains... South to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northwest across the central High Plains beneath modest upper ridging over the western U.S. Daytime heating and a developing lee-trough will provide focus for thunderstorm development by late afternoon along the CO/southeast WY Front Range. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but sufficient for MLCAPE in the 500-1200 J/kg range. Modestly increasing westerly mid/upper flow will support 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes and somewhat elongated hodographs. A couple of strong storms capable of sub-severe wind gusts and hail will be possible as convection develops east/southeast into the eastern CO and western KS vicinity through the evening. Overall, severe potential appears limited at this time given the modest thermodynamic and kinematic environment. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday), though a few stronger storms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible. ...SD/MN/IA Vicinity... A broad upper trough will be in place from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a persistent mid/upper northwest flow regime across the region. Forecast guidance suggests a weak shortwave impulse will move across the eastern Dakotas and MN/IA during the morning/early afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak front will develop southward, extending generally west to east across eastern SD into southern MN by peak heating. Weak southerly low-level flow will promote shallow boundary layer moisture, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s along/ahead of the surface boundary. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest, but weak instability (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast. Some early-day showers and clouds may linger, but isolated thunderstorms will likely develop during mid to late afternoon near the surface boundary from far eastern SD into southern MN. Vertically veering wind profiles, with strengthening northwest flow through the mid/upper levels will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-35 kt range. Forecast hodographs also appear elongated/straight. While 500 mb temperatures are forecast in the -10 to -12 C range, some warming around 700 mb is apparent in some forecast soundings. While an organized storm or two may become strong within a favorable shear parameter space, it is uncertain if robust updrafts will be maintained given marginal thermodynamics and some contamination to the environment from early-day activity. An isolated strong gust or small hail may be possible with the strongest storms for a couple hours during the late afternoon or early evening, but overall severe potential looks limited at this time. ...Central High Plains... South to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northwest across the central High Plains beneath modest upper ridging over the western U.S. Daytime heating and a developing lee-trough will provide focus for thunderstorm development by late afternoon along the CO/southeast WY Front Range. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but sufficient for MLCAPE in the 500-1200 J/kg range. Modestly increasing westerly mid/upper flow will support 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes and somewhat elongated hodographs. A couple of strong storms capable of sub-severe wind gusts and hail will be possible as convection develops east/southeast into the eastern CO and western KS vicinity through the evening. Overall, severe potential appears limited at this time given the modest thermodynamic and kinematic environment. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday), though a few stronger storms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible. ...SD/MN/IA Vicinity... A broad upper trough will be in place from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a persistent mid/upper northwest flow regime across the region. Forecast guidance suggests a weak shortwave impulse will move across the eastern Dakotas and MN/IA during the morning/early afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak front will develop southward, extending generally west to east across eastern SD into southern MN by peak heating. Weak southerly low-level flow will promote shallow boundary layer moisture, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s along/ahead of the surface boundary. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest, but weak instability (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast. Some early-day showers and clouds may linger, but isolated thunderstorms will likely develop during mid to late afternoon near the surface boundary from far eastern SD into southern MN. Vertically veering wind profiles, with strengthening northwest flow through the mid/upper levels will support effective shear magnitudes in the 25-35 kt range. Forecast hodographs also appear elongated/straight. While 500 mb temperatures are forecast in the -10 to -12 C range, some warming around 700 mb is apparent in some forecast soundings. While an organized storm or two may become strong within a favorable shear parameter space, it is uncertain if robust updrafts will be maintained given marginal thermodynamics and some contamination to the environment from early-day activity. An isolated strong gust or small hail may be possible with the strongest storms for a couple hours during the late afternoon or early evening, but overall severe potential looks limited at this time. ...Central High Plains... South to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northwest across the central High Plains beneath modest upper ridging over the western U.S. Daytime heating and a developing lee-trough will provide focus for thunderstorm development by late afternoon along the CO/southeast WY Front Range. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but sufficient for MLCAPE in the 500-1200 J/kg range. Modestly increasing westerly mid/upper flow will support 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes and somewhat elongated hodographs. A couple of strong storms capable of sub-severe wind gusts and hail will be possible as convection develops east/southeast into the eastern CO and western KS vicinity through the evening. Overall, severe potential appears limited at this time given the modest thermodynamic and kinematic environment. ..Leitman.. 08/26/2025 Read more