Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to the general thunderstorm forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to the general thunderstorm forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to the general thunderstorm forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to the general thunderstorm forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to the general thunderstorm forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to the general thunderstorm forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to the general thunderstorm forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to the general thunderstorm forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern High Plains on Friday. ...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. with modest northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE, southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty winds and marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern High Plains on Friday. ...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. with modest northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE, southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty winds and marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern High Plains on Friday. ...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. with modest northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE, southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty winds and marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern High Plains on Friday. ...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. with modest northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE, southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty winds and marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern High Plains on Friday. ...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. with modest northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE, southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty winds and marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern High Plains on Friday. ...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. with modest northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE, southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty winds and marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern High Plains on Friday. ...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. with modest northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE, southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty winds and marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern High Plains on Friday. ...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. with modest northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE, southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty winds and marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more