Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of a marginal severe threat will be possible early this evening across parts of eastern Colorado and from north-central Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Eastern Colorado... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the central Rockies with a large plume of moisture extending from the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. At the surface, high pressure, associated with a large post-frontal airmass, is located over much of the central and eastern U.S. Along the western edge of the airmass, an upslope flow regime is present over the central High Plains. Relatively isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in eastern Colorado near an axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This suggest the environment could support a marginal severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats. ...North-central/Northeast Texas/Northern Louisiana... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Southeast. A mid-level shortwave trough appears to be moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing just ahead of the shortwave over northern Louisiana, extending westward along a front into northeast and north-central Texas. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to moderate instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Near the front, the 00Z soundings at Fort Worth and Shreveport have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with steep low-level lapse rates. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts early this evening. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of a marginal severe threat will be possible early this evening across parts of eastern Colorado and from north-central Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Eastern Colorado... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the central Rockies with a large plume of moisture extending from the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. At the surface, high pressure, associated with a large post-frontal airmass, is located over much of the central and eastern U.S. Along the western edge of the airmass, an upslope flow regime is present over the central High Plains. Relatively isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in eastern Colorado near an axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This suggest the environment could support a marginal severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats. ...North-central/Northeast Texas/Northern Louisiana... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Southeast. A mid-level shortwave trough appears to be moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing just ahead of the shortwave over northern Louisiana, extending westward along a front into northeast and north-central Texas. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to moderate instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Near the front, the 00Z soundings at Fort Worth and Shreveport have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with steep low-level lapse rates. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts early this evening. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/29/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 28 02:15:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 28 02:15:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the central High Plains early this evening. ...01z Update... Scattered convection persists across much of the western United States early this evening, primarily driven by strong boundary-layer heating. Much of this activity will gradually weaken as the evening progresses. A corridor of modest instability persists across the central High Plains and a few small clusters are noted across eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas. Weak low-level warm advection will maintain this activity into the mid-evening hours, with some upscale growth possible downstream later tonight as LLJ strengthens. Even so, most of this convection should remain sub-severe. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the central High Plains early this evening. ...01z Update... Scattered convection persists across much of the western United States early this evening, primarily driven by strong boundary-layer heating. Much of this activity will gradually weaken as the evening progresses. A corridor of modest instability persists across the central High Plains and a few small clusters are noted across eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas. Weak low-level warm advection will maintain this activity into the mid-evening hours, with some upscale growth possible downstream later tonight as LLJ strengthens. Even so, most of this convection should remain sub-severe. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the central High Plains early this evening. ...01z Update... Scattered convection persists across much of the western United States early this evening, primarily driven by strong boundary-layer heating. Much of this activity will gradually weaken as the evening progresses. A corridor of modest instability persists across the central High Plains and a few small clusters are noted across eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas. Weak low-level warm advection will maintain this activity into the mid-evening hours, with some upscale growth possible downstream later tonight as LLJ strengthens. Even so, most of this convection should remain sub-severe. ..Darrow.. 08/28/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 27 22:16:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 27 22:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2016 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS AND A SMALL PART OF THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO into western KS and a small part of the NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272013Z - 272215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible later this afternoon into this evening. DISCUSSION...Clearing in the wake of earlier mid/high-level cloudiness has allowed for modest diurnal heating from eastern CO into west-central/southwest KS. Temperatures aloft are relatively warm, but boundary-layer warming and sufficient low-level moisture are supporting MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg, with locally greater values across southwest KS. Weak storms have already developed near the CO Front Range, with building cumulus noted in the vicinity of multiple surface confluence zones across northeast CO, east-central CO, and southeast CO into southwest KS. Westerly midlevel flow is relatively modest (generally 20-25 kt), but sufficient veering in the wind profile is supporting effective shear of 25-30 kt. With time, a few organized multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two could evolve as developing convection deepens and matures through late afternoon. The strongest cells could produce isolated hail, though generally weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit the magnitude of the hail threat. Outflow amalgamation could result in loosely organized upscale growth by early evening, with a threat for strong to locally severe gusts. ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40720462 40840406 41210382 41490378 41510312 41050292 39860214 38760137 37820072 37200076 37180183 37290306 38450481 39500491 40360518 40700483 40720462 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 2015 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Areas affected...Southwest Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271918Z - 272145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage should increase through early evening across southwest Minnesota and perhaps far eastern South Dakota. A strong to severe thunderstorm or two is possible, but watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a band of growing cumulus focused along a subtle warm frontal zone from eastern SD into south-central MN. Vertical development of the cumulus has increased over the past hour (with occasional lightning flashes noted in at least one deeper convective tower) as modest daytime heating slowly reduces inhibition and ascent ahead of a weak upper-level wave (noted in water-vapor imagery and regional VWP observations) glances the region. Additional convective development should become more likely through late afternoon/early evening as temperatures continue to warm into the mid/upper 70s and the upper wave overspreads southern MN. VWP observations from KFSD have consistently sampled around 30 knots of 0-4 km shear, and recent RAP forecast soundings/mesoanalysis estimates suggest MLCAPE is approaching 1000 J/kg. While fairly modest, this environment is sufficient for some storm organization if mature convection can become established within the weakly forced regime. More intense cells may be capable of severe gusts as well as large hail, though the coverage and overall intensity of severe thunderstorms is expected to remain fairly limited through early evening. ..Moore/Gleason.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45079626 45039549 44929487 44769447 44589405 44329363 44039334 43729336 43529346 43429383 43419435 43449505 43539565 43659608 43829655 44129698 44399719 44659725 44939717 45069685 45079626 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A closed upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, but forecast guidance has been inconsistent on how far inland the low moves over British Columbia and Washington. Forecast guidance has been increasingly consistent in the low retrograding back offshore early next week. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will slowly build back over the West, especially the Intermountain West, this weekend through early next week with a warming and drying trend. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish across the West and likely be mostly confined to portions of the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... As the upper low approaches the Northwest, dry/breezy conditions are likely in portions of northern California, Inland Northwest, and northwest Great Basin Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. Current forecast guidance indicates the potential for locally elevated winds/RH and low probabilities of critical conditions. However, given the recent lightning, holdovers will be a concern. Established fires are also likely to see increased burn periods and lower RH/higher winds helping to increase spread potential. Isolated drier thunderstorms are possible ahead of the upper low across portions of the Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and northern Rockies Day 3/Friday and possibly into Day 4/Saturday. However, too much forecast uncertainty exists to include probabilities at this time. Showers are likely for portions of northwest Oregon and western Washington associated with the upper low Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more