Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat. ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur across the southern Plains this afternoon and early evening, including parts of southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains including southern Kansas/western Oklahoma... A shortwave trough centered over eastern Nebraska this morning will progress southeastward toward the south-central Plains and eventually the Ozarks by tonight. This will be in association with a strengthening belt of north-northwesterly mid-level winds (35 kt at 500 mb). While the related low-level/surface response will be muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from Kansas into Oklahoma, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing front. Morning low clouds/stratus will abate by afternoon, yielding to ample insolation and probably a corridor of moderate buoyancy/steepening lapse rates, particularly across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Increasing/widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable into mid-afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 35+ kt effective shear, which could yield some marginal supercells aside from evolving multicellular clusters. Isolated instances of severe hail/damaging wind will be possible through early evening as storms develop south-southeastward from southern Kansas into western/northern Oklahoma. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur across the southern Plains this afternoon and early evening, including parts of southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains including southern Kansas/western Oklahoma... A shortwave trough centered over eastern Nebraska this morning will progress southeastward toward the south-central Plains and eventually the Ozarks by tonight. This will be in association with a strengthening belt of north-northwesterly mid-level winds (35 kt at 500 mb). While the related low-level/surface response will be muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from Kansas into Oklahoma, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing front. Morning low clouds/stratus will abate by afternoon, yielding to ample insolation and probably a corridor of moderate buoyancy/steepening lapse rates, particularly across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Increasing/widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable into mid-afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 35+ kt effective shear, which could yield some marginal supercells aside from evolving multicellular clusters. Isolated instances of severe hail/damaging wind will be possible through early evening as storms develop south-southeastward from southern Kansas into western/northern Oklahoma. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur across the southern Plains this afternoon and early evening, including parts of southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains including southern Kansas/western Oklahoma... A shortwave trough centered over eastern Nebraska this morning will progress southeastward toward the south-central Plains and eventually the Ozarks by tonight. This will be in association with a strengthening belt of north-northwesterly mid-level winds (35 kt at 500 mb). While the related low-level/surface response will be muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from Kansas into Oklahoma, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing front. Morning low clouds/stratus will abate by afternoon, yielding to ample insolation and probably a corridor of moderate buoyancy/steepening lapse rates, particularly across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Increasing/widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable into mid-afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 35+ kt effective shear, which could yield some marginal supercells aside from evolving multicellular clusters. Isolated instances of severe hail/damaging wind will be possible through early evening as storms develop south-southeastward from southern Kansas into western/northern Oklahoma. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/01/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame. Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing. The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday). Read more