Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentiles. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentiles. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentiles. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentiles. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentiles. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southeastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is located from the Great Plains eastward into the Appalachians. A moist airmass is in place from the Great Plains into the Southeast. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Great Plains and southern Rockies. A few strong storms will be possible this evening near an instability axis from west Texas into central Oklahoma, but no appreciable severe threat is forecast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening and tonight. ..Broyles.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southeastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is located from the Great Plains eastward into the Appalachians. A moist airmass is in place from the Great Plains into the Southeast. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Great Plains and southern Rockies. A few strong storms will be possible this evening near an instability axis from west Texas into central Oklahoma, but no appreciable severe threat is forecast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening and tonight. ..Broyles.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southeastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is located from the Great Plains eastward into the Appalachians. A moist airmass is in place from the Great Plains into the Southeast. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Great Plains and southern Rockies. A few strong storms will be possible this evening near an instability axis from west Texas into central Oklahoma, but no appreciable severe threat is forecast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening and tonight. ..Broyles.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southeastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is located from the Great Plains eastward into the Appalachians. A moist airmass is in place from the Great Plains into the Southeast. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Great Plains and southern Rockies. A few strong storms will be possible this evening near an instability axis from west Texas into central Oklahoma, but no appreciable severe threat is forecast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening and tonight. ..Broyles.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southeastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is located from the Great Plains eastward into the Appalachians. A moist airmass is in place from the Great Plains into the Southeast. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Great Plains and southern Rockies. A few strong storms will be possible this evening near an instability axis from west Texas into central Oklahoma, but no appreciable severe threat is forecast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening and tonight. ..Broyles.. 09/01/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 31 23:32:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 31 23:32:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid/upper-level ridge is forecast to build north/northwestward across much of the western U.S. and extend into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Tuesday into Day 4/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-low is forecast to meander north/northeastward along the western periphery of the ridge, coming onshore over portions of central/northern California Day 3/Tuesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low remains somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability regarding timing. Nevertheless, the low should generally drift slowly into portions of Oregon by Day 4/Wednesday or Day 5/Thursday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop Day 4/Tuesday across much of California and the Northwest and persist through at least the middle of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area. This may promote increasing fire activity from recent holdovers, longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires, and an increasing risk for large plume-dominated fires. Lightning potential is also forecast to increase across portions of northern California into Oregon Day 3/Tuesday through Day 4/Wednesday, as the aforementioned upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward - especially late Day 4/Wednesday through Day 5/Thursday. Nevertheless, dry thunderstorm probabilities (10-39%) were introduced for Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday for where the most favorable overlap of thunder potential atop receptive fuels is currently expected. These areas may need to be refined and an additional area may need to be added for Day 5/Thursday as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid/upper-level ridge is forecast to build north/northwestward across much of the western U.S. and extend into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Tuesday into Day 4/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-low is forecast to meander north/northeastward along the western periphery of the ridge, coming onshore over portions of central/northern California Day 3/Tuesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low remains somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability regarding timing. Nevertheless, the low should generally drift slowly into portions of Oregon by Day 4/Wednesday or Day 5/Thursday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop Day 4/Tuesday across much of California and the Northwest and persist through at least the middle of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area. This may promote increasing fire activity from recent holdovers, longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires, and an increasing risk for large plume-dominated fires. Lightning potential is also forecast to increase across portions of northern California into Oregon Day 3/Tuesday through Day 4/Wednesday, as the aforementioned upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward - especially late Day 4/Wednesday through Day 5/Thursday. Nevertheless, dry thunderstorm probabilities (10-39%) were introduced for Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday for where the most favorable overlap of thunder potential atop receptive fuels is currently expected. These areas may need to be refined and an additional area may need to be added for Day 5/Thursday as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more