Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk of severe storms exists for portions of the central Plains. Severe wind and hail are the primary threats, and an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail is also possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify across the MS Valley region while upper ridging persists over the Interior West tomorrow (Wednesday). The central U.S. will be located within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. A surface cold front will surge southward across the central Plains, acting as a low-level lifting source (via convergence) for seasonal low-level moisture over the region. At least scattered strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Given strong flow/shear and colder temperatures aloft overspreading the pre-frontal airmass with the passage of an embedded impulse, some of the storms are expected to be severe. ...Central Plains... As the surface cold front approaches central and eastern KS from the north, surface temperatures may exceed 80 F amid mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. With 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this airmass, MLCAPE may reach as high as 2500 J/kg in spots. Kinematically speaking, veering low-level flow, overspread by strong northwesterlies will yield curved and elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms are expected to become supercells, accompanied by severe wind and hail. There are some indications that a couple of stronger, sustained supercells may develop across eastern KS during the late afternoon to early evening hours. Given both the vertical shear profiles and colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of 2+ inch hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk of severe storms exists for portions of the central Plains. Severe wind and hail are the primary threats, and an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail is also possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify across the MS Valley region while upper ridging persists over the Interior West tomorrow (Wednesday). The central U.S. will be located within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. A surface cold front will surge southward across the central Plains, acting as a low-level lifting source (via convergence) for seasonal low-level moisture over the region. At least scattered strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Given strong flow/shear and colder temperatures aloft overspreading the pre-frontal airmass with the passage of an embedded impulse, some of the storms are expected to be severe. ...Central Plains... As the surface cold front approaches central and eastern KS from the north, surface temperatures may exceed 80 F amid mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. With 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this airmass, MLCAPE may reach as high as 2500 J/kg in spots. Kinematically speaking, veering low-level flow, overspread by strong northwesterlies will yield curved and elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms are expected to become supercells, accompanied by severe wind and hail. There are some indications that a couple of stronger, sustained supercells may develop across eastern KS during the late afternoon to early evening hours. Given both the vertical shear profiles and colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of 2+ inch hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk of severe storms exists for portions of the central Plains. Severe wind and hail are the primary threats, and an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail is also possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify across the MS Valley region while upper ridging persists over the Interior West tomorrow (Wednesday). The central U.S. will be located within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. A surface cold front will surge southward across the central Plains, acting as a low-level lifting source (via convergence) for seasonal low-level moisture over the region. At least scattered strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Given strong flow/shear and colder temperatures aloft overspreading the pre-frontal airmass with the passage of an embedded impulse, some of the storms are expected to be severe. ...Central Plains... As the surface cold front approaches central and eastern KS from the north, surface temperatures may exceed 80 F amid mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. With 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this airmass, MLCAPE may reach as high as 2500 J/kg in spots. Kinematically speaking, veering low-level flow, overspread by strong northwesterlies will yield curved and elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms are expected to become supercells, accompanied by severe wind and hail. There are some indications that a couple of stronger, sustained supercells may develop across eastern KS during the late afternoon to early evening hours. Given both the vertical shear profiles and colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of 2+ inch hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk of severe storms exists for portions of the central Plains. Severe wind and hail are the primary threats, and an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail is also possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify across the MS Valley region while upper ridging persists over the Interior West tomorrow (Wednesday). The central U.S. will be located within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. A surface cold front will surge southward across the central Plains, acting as a low-level lifting source (via convergence) for seasonal low-level moisture over the region. At least scattered strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Given strong flow/shear and colder temperatures aloft overspreading the pre-frontal airmass with the passage of an embedded impulse, some of the storms are expected to be severe. ...Central Plains... As the surface cold front approaches central and eastern KS from the north, surface temperatures may exceed 80 F amid mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. With 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this airmass, MLCAPE may reach as high as 2500 J/kg in spots. Kinematically speaking, veering low-level flow, overspread by strong northwesterlies will yield curved and elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms are expected to become supercells, accompanied by severe wind and hail. There are some indications that a couple of stronger, sustained supercells may develop across eastern KS during the late afternoon to early evening hours. Given both the vertical shear profiles and colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of 2+ inch hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk of severe storms exists for portions of the central Plains. Severe wind and hail are the primary threats, and an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail is also possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify across the MS Valley region while upper ridging persists over the Interior West tomorrow (Wednesday). The central U.S. will be located within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. A surface cold front will surge southward across the central Plains, acting as a low-level lifting source (via convergence) for seasonal low-level moisture over the region. At least scattered strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Given strong flow/shear and colder temperatures aloft overspreading the pre-frontal airmass with the passage of an embedded impulse, some of the storms are expected to be severe. ...Central Plains... As the surface cold front approaches central and eastern KS from the north, surface temperatures may exceed 80 F amid mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. With 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this airmass, MLCAPE may reach as high as 2500 J/kg in spots. Kinematically speaking, veering low-level flow, overspread by strong northwesterlies will yield curved and elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms are expected to become supercells, accompanied by severe wind and hail. There are some indications that a couple of stronger, sustained supercells may develop across eastern KS during the late afternoon to early evening hours. Given both the vertical shear profiles and colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of 2+ inch hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... North-northwesterly mid-level flow will continue across the Great Plains today, as a shortwave trough moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence becomes maximized along and ahead of the front, scattered convective initiation will be likely during the mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form and move southeastward across eastern South Dakota and central to southern Minnesota. Most late afternoon forecast soundings across that area by late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, with steep lapse rates between the surface and 850 mb. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. The stronger multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... North-northwesterly mid-level flow will continue across the Great Plains today, as a shortwave trough moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence becomes maximized along and ahead of the front, scattered convective initiation will be likely during the mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form and move southeastward across eastern South Dakota and central to southern Minnesota. Most late afternoon forecast soundings across that area by late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, with steep lapse rates between the surface and 850 mb. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. The stronger multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... North-northwesterly mid-level flow will continue across the Great Plains today, as a shortwave trough moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence becomes maximized along and ahead of the front, scattered convective initiation will be likely during the mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form and move southeastward across eastern South Dakota and central to southern Minnesota. Most late afternoon forecast soundings across that area by late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, with steep lapse rates between the surface and 850 mb. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. The stronger multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... North-northwesterly mid-level flow will continue across the Great Plains today, as a shortwave trough moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence becomes maximized along and ahead of the front, scattered convective initiation will be likely during the mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form and move southeastward across eastern South Dakota and central to southern Minnesota. Most late afternoon forecast soundings across that area by late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, with steep lapse rates between the surface and 850 mb. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. The stronger multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... North-northwesterly mid-level flow will continue across the Great Plains today, as a shortwave trough moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence becomes maximized along and ahead of the front, scattered convective initiation will be likely during the mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form and move southeastward across eastern South Dakota and central to southern Minnesota. Most late afternoon forecast soundings across that area by late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, with steep lapse rates between the surface and 850 mb. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. The stronger multicells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of northern and western Oklahoma this evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of south-central Arizona. ...Northwest Oklahoma... At mid-levels on water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough is moving across the central U.S., embedded in northwesterly flow. At the surface, a moist airmass is located in the southern and central Plains with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. The RAP has a pocket of moderate instability over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within this pocket of instability. These storms will persist for a couple more hours, moving southeastward across parts of western and central Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings in north-central Oklahoma early this evening have 0-6 km near 45 knots. In addition, the Oklahoma City 00Z soundings has a somewhat steep lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer. This suggests that isolated severe gust will be possible with the stronger cells. Hail could also occur. ...Northeast North Dakota... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over parts of the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass in place with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near an axis of maximized low-level convergence in northeastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. Although a strong storm will be possible this evening, any severe threat is expected to be limited due to weak deep-layer shear and poor lapse rates. ...South-central Arizona... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture over south-central Arizona. A few thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume in the Phoenix area. This convection is located within a pocket of instability, where SBCAPE values are estimated in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. The 00Z sounding at Tuscon has a surface dewpoints of 55 F, with 0-3 km lapse rates of 9.7 C/km, with a dry adiabatic temperature profile from the surface to 700 mb. This should be favorable for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cells for another hour or two. ..Broyles.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of northern and western Oklahoma this evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of south-central Arizona. ...Northwest Oklahoma... At mid-levels on water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough is moving across the central U.S., embedded in northwesterly flow. At the surface, a moist airmass is located in the southern and central Plains with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. The RAP has a pocket of moderate instability over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within this pocket of instability. These storms will persist for a couple more hours, moving southeastward across parts of western and central Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings in north-central Oklahoma early this evening have 0-6 km near 45 knots. In addition, the Oklahoma City 00Z soundings has a somewhat steep lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer. This suggests that isolated severe gust will be possible with the stronger cells. Hail could also occur. ...Northeast North Dakota... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over parts of the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass in place with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near an axis of maximized low-level convergence in northeastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. Although a strong storm will be possible this evening, any severe threat is expected to be limited due to weak deep-layer shear and poor lapse rates. ...South-central Arizona... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture over south-central Arizona. A few thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume in the Phoenix area. This convection is located within a pocket of instability, where SBCAPE values are estimated in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. The 00Z sounding at Tuscon has a surface dewpoints of 55 F, with 0-3 km lapse rates of 9.7 C/km, with a dry adiabatic temperature profile from the surface to 700 mb. This should be favorable for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cells for another hour or two. ..Broyles.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of northern and western Oklahoma this evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of south-central Arizona. ...Northwest Oklahoma... At mid-levels on water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough is moving across the central U.S., embedded in northwesterly flow. At the surface, a moist airmass is located in the southern and central Plains with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. The RAP has a pocket of moderate instability over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within this pocket of instability. These storms will persist for a couple more hours, moving southeastward across parts of western and central Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings in north-central Oklahoma early this evening have 0-6 km near 45 knots. In addition, the Oklahoma City 00Z soundings has a somewhat steep lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer. This suggests that isolated severe gust will be possible with the stronger cells. Hail could also occur. ...Northeast North Dakota... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over parts of the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass in place with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near an axis of maximized low-level convergence in northeastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. Although a strong storm will be possible this evening, any severe threat is expected to be limited due to weak deep-layer shear and poor lapse rates. ...South-central Arizona... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture over south-central Arizona. A few thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume in the Phoenix area. This convection is located within a pocket of instability, where SBCAPE values are estimated in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. The 00Z sounding at Tuscon has a surface dewpoints of 55 F, with 0-3 km lapse rates of 9.7 C/km, with a dry adiabatic temperature profile from the surface to 700 mb. This should be favorable for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cells for another hour or two. ..Broyles.. 09/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of northern and western Oklahoma this evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of south-central Arizona. ...Northwest Oklahoma... At mid-levels on water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough is moving across the central U.S., embedded in northwesterly flow. At the surface, a moist airmass is located in the southern and central Plains with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. The RAP has a pocket of moderate instability over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within this pocket of instability. These storms will persist for a couple more hours, moving southeastward across parts of western and central Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings in north-central Oklahoma early this evening have 0-6 km near 45 knots. In addition, the Oklahoma City 00Z soundings has a somewhat steep lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer. This suggests that isolated severe gust will be possible with the stronger cells. Hail could also occur. ...Northeast North Dakota... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over parts of the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass in place with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near an axis of maximized low-level convergence in northeastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. Although a strong storm will be possible this evening, any severe threat is expected to be limited due to weak deep-layer shear and poor lapse rates. ...South-central Arizona... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture over south-central Arizona. A few thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume in the Phoenix area. This convection is located within a pocket of instability, where SBCAPE values are estimated in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. The 00Z sounding at Tuscon has a surface dewpoints of 55 F, with 0-3 km lapse rates of 9.7 C/km, with a dry adiabatic temperature profile from the surface to 700 mb. This should be favorable for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cells for another hour or two. ..Broyles.. 09/02/2025 Read more

MD 2026 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2026 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012343Z - 020145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue south and westward through the evening with potential for strong to severe wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing this afternoon along and south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern/central Arizona. This activity will continue to drop southward into the lower deserts where temperatures have crested 100 F and dew point spreads around 40-50 degrees. In addition, steep low to mid-level lapse rates are noted with deeply mixed profiles. New activity is forming along a southwestward moving outflow boundary east of the Phoenix Metro. This may support a few instances of strong to severe wind and low visibility from blowing dust this evening. ..Thornton/Hart.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 34131168 34251118 34181116 34061115 33931099 33761074 33611044 33511014 33420971 33190983 33011007 32811073 32851119 32991161 33241197 33381214 33561215 34131168 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 1 23:46:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2026 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2026 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012343Z - 020145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue south and westward through the evening with potential for strong to severe wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing this afternoon along and south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern/central Arizona. This activity will continue to drop southward into the lower deserts where temperatures have crested 100 F and dew point spreads around 40-50 degrees. In addition, steep low to mid-level lapse rates are noted with deeply mixed profiles. New activity is forming along a southwestward moving outflow boundary east of the Phoenix Metro. This may support a few instances of strong to severe wind and low visibility from blowing dust this evening. ..Thornton/Hart.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 34131168 34251118 34181116 34061115 33931099 33761074 33611044 33511014 33420971 33190983 33011007 32811073 32851119 32991161 33241197 33381214 33561215 34131168 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 1 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2025 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK AND THE FAR NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2025 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Areas affected...Southwest/south-central KS into northwest/north-central OK and the far northeast TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011901Z - 012130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible this afternoon into the early evening, with a threat of isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has recently been noted near Dodge City, in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/low. Diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass has resulted in the development of moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range where stronger heating is underway. Weak midlevel lapse rates (sampled by the 12Z DDC and OUN soundings) may tend to slow updraft intensification, but with time, scattered thunderstorm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves southeastward across central/eastern KS. A belt of moderate north-northwesterly midlevel flow associated with the approaching shortwave trough will overspread southwest/south-central KS into northwest/north-central OK with time, resulting in elongated hodographs and sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization. Multicell clusters and possibly a supercell or two may evolve within this regime. The weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit the magnitude of the hail threat, but isolated severe hail will be possible if any supercells can be sustained. Steepening of low-level lapse rates will support some potential for localized strong to severe gusts, especially if any organized clustering evolves with time. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 38160061 38349841 38319703 37519697 37099722 36049783 35809823 35779916 35880025 36210043 38160061 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An expansive mid/upper-level ridge is forecast across the western US extending northward into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift along the western periphery of the ridge over Oregon Day 3/Wednesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low (and overall synoptic pattern in the days following) continues to remain somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability. Nevertheless, the low is now generally forecast to move more quickly north/northwestward, reaching across portions of the Washington coast by Day 4/Thursday. While details remain unclear beyond Day 4/Thursday, guidance appears to be favoring the continuation of an inland western US upper-level ridge and some form of coastal trough through next weekend. ...Day 3/Wednesday: Northern California and the Northwest... Dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to linger at least into Day 3/Wednesday across portions of northern California, Oregon, western Idaho, and far southern Washington, as the aforementioned upper-level low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. While dry thunderstorm potential may remain across some of these areas beyond Day 3/Wednesday due to the aforementioned lingering coastal troughing, uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, locations, and mode (wet/dry) are currently too large to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more