Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...Northwest... A mid-level low will gradually push into northern CA through tonight supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms along an axis of instability from the northern Klamath Mountains into the higher terrain of central/northeast OR. Precipitable water values in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range atop a dry boundary layer will limit rainfall with thunderstorms increasing potential of new lightning ignitions atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Elevated highlights were expanded into northeastern NV. Current surface observations show a wide swath 8-15% relative humidity values from central to northeastern NV. Enhanced mid-level flow atop a very dry/well-mixed boundary layer by this afternoon will support elevated fire weather conditions across much of central and northeastern NV, with more widespread single digit RH values by this afternoon, particularly across central NV. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive midlevel ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel low will approach the northern CA coast as it gradually phases with a robust midlevel trough moving across British Columbia. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will promote isolated dry/high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain of OR into far southeastern WA. Given dry/receptive fuels and limited rainfall with these storms, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible, along with strong convective outflow. Additionally, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of the midlevel trough moving across British Columbia will overspread the Cascades, resulting in dry/breezy downslope flow and elevated fire-weather conditions in the Columbia Basin. Farther south, a belt of enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin between the large-scale ridge and midlevel low. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions over central NV into western UT, and given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...Northwest... A mid-level low will gradually push into northern CA through tonight supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms along an axis of instability from the northern Klamath Mountains into the higher terrain of central/northeast OR. Precipitable water values in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range atop a dry boundary layer will limit rainfall with thunderstorms increasing potential of new lightning ignitions atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Elevated highlights were expanded into northeastern NV. Current surface observations show a wide swath 8-15% relative humidity values from central to northeastern NV. Enhanced mid-level flow atop a very dry/well-mixed boundary layer by this afternoon will support elevated fire weather conditions across much of central and northeastern NV, with more widespread single digit RH values by this afternoon, particularly across central NV. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive midlevel ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel low will approach the northern CA coast as it gradually phases with a robust midlevel trough moving across British Columbia. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will promote isolated dry/high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain of OR into far southeastern WA. Given dry/receptive fuels and limited rainfall with these storms, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible, along with strong convective outflow. Additionally, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of the midlevel trough moving across British Columbia will overspread the Cascades, resulting in dry/breezy downslope flow and elevated fire-weather conditions in the Columbia Basin. Farther south, a belt of enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin between the large-scale ridge and midlevel low. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions over central NV into western UT, and given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...Northwest... A mid-level low will gradually push into northern CA through tonight supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms along an axis of instability from the northern Klamath Mountains into the higher terrain of central/northeast OR. Precipitable water values in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range atop a dry boundary layer will limit rainfall with thunderstorms increasing potential of new lightning ignitions atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Elevated highlights were expanded into northeastern NV. Current surface observations show a wide swath 8-15% relative humidity values from central to northeastern NV. Enhanced mid-level flow atop a very dry/well-mixed boundary layer by this afternoon will support elevated fire weather conditions across much of central and northeastern NV, with more widespread single digit RH values by this afternoon, particularly across central NV. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive midlevel ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel low will approach the northern CA coast as it gradually phases with a robust midlevel trough moving across British Columbia. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will promote isolated dry/high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain of OR into far southeastern WA. Given dry/receptive fuels and limited rainfall with these storms, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible, along with strong convective outflow. Additionally, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of the midlevel trough moving across British Columbia will overspread the Cascades, resulting in dry/breezy downslope flow and elevated fire-weather conditions in the Columbia Basin. Farther south, a belt of enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin between the large-scale ridge and midlevel low. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions over central NV into western UT, and given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more