Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

MD 1602 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL IA...NORTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST KS...FAR SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...South-central IA...northwest MO...northeast KS...far southeast NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495... Valid 080659Z - 080830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495 continues. SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind remains possible overnight. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS is ongoing early this morning from south-central IA into northwest MO and northeast KS. Low/midlevel flow and deep-layer shear are generally rather weak, and there has been a continued tendency for the gust front to outpace the deeper convective cores. However, even with this configuration, a relatively expansive cold pool is supporting occasional strong gusts, with a 51 kt gust recently observed at St. Joseph, MO. With CINH increasing downstream, a gradual weakening trend is expected to continue overnight, but some threat for strong to locally severe gusts may persist early this morning near and just behind the southeastward-moving outflow/gust front. ..Dean.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39619750 39769742 40199703 40109638 39829518 40549407 41759342 41769283 41389250 40149277 39109365 38879526 39459716 39619750 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW HSI TO 20 ESE LNK TO 20 SW SDA TO 25 N STJ TO 25 NNE LWD TO 40 NE DSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602 ..DEAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC067-095-097-109-131-151-080840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER OTOE SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more