Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level jet max rounding the southern periphery of a short wave ejecting into the Great Basin will move over NV Wednesday. Efficient boundary layer mixing and subsequent surface winds of 15-25 mph with relative humidity in the 10-15% range will result in critical fire weather conditions across central NV/ far western UT Wednesday afternoon amid dry/receptive fuels. A broader elevated fire weather threat remains across much of the Great Basin as the trough pushes through the region. ...Northwest... Deep-layer westerly flow will continue to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Columbia Basin on Wednesday. A cold front and general onshore flow pattern will usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity through the Cascade gaps and Columbia River Gorge but overall stronger surface winds and a remaining dry boundary layer will support an elevated fire weather threat across the eastern Columbia Basin. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are still expected across southeastern OR and southwestern ID as a mid-level trough axis pushes into the Great Basin. Limited rainfall will increase ignition efficiency over dry fuels in addition to providing gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track eastward across the Northwest during the day -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough/low moving eastward from British Columbia into Alberta. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving across the Northwest will promote another day of isolated high-based thunderstorms -- with a focus over southeastern OR into southwestern ID. Deep inverted-V soundings and PW around 0.7 inches will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow (peripheral to the midlevel trough) across the Cascades will lead to breezy/gusty westerly surface winds in the Columbia Basin. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will limit RH reductions compared to Day 1/Tuesday, stronger surface winds will offset this and still yield elevated fire-weather conditions. Over the Great Basin, moderate midlevel southwesterly winds accompanying the compact midlevel trough will overspread the Great Basin during the day. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this strengthening flow aloft will support another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level jet max rounding the southern periphery of a short wave ejecting into the Great Basin will move over NV Wednesday. Efficient boundary layer mixing and subsequent surface winds of 15-25 mph with relative humidity in the 10-15% range will result in critical fire weather conditions across central NV/ far western UT Wednesday afternoon amid dry/receptive fuels. A broader elevated fire weather threat remains across much of the Great Basin as the trough pushes through the region. ...Northwest... Deep-layer westerly flow will continue to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Columbia Basin on Wednesday. A cold front and general onshore flow pattern will usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity through the Cascade gaps and Columbia River Gorge but overall stronger surface winds and a remaining dry boundary layer will support an elevated fire weather threat across the eastern Columbia Basin. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are still expected across southeastern OR and southwestern ID as a mid-level trough axis pushes into the Great Basin. Limited rainfall will increase ignition efficiency over dry fuels in addition to providing gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track eastward across the Northwest during the day -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough/low moving eastward from British Columbia into Alberta. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving across the Northwest will promote another day of isolated high-based thunderstorms -- with a focus over southeastern OR into southwestern ID. Deep inverted-V soundings and PW around 0.7 inches will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow (peripheral to the midlevel trough) across the Cascades will lead to breezy/gusty westerly surface winds in the Columbia Basin. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will limit RH reductions compared to Day 1/Tuesday, stronger surface winds will offset this and still yield elevated fire-weather conditions. Over the Great Basin, moderate midlevel southwesterly winds accompanying the compact midlevel trough will overspread the Great Basin during the day. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this strengthening flow aloft will support another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more

MD 1605 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...the central Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081804Z - 082000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage should increase through late afternoon with a few embedded strong/severe thunderstorms across the central Carolinas. The severe threat should remain too limited to warrant watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are in the early stages of development along a weak trough/confluence zone from central GA into central SC with additional convection beginning to deepen off the southern Appalachians in the western Carolinas. Strong diurnal heating across the Carolinas, combined with seasonably high dewpoints in the mid 70s, is supporting a plume of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE along the Carolina coast into central NC per recent mesoanalysis estimates. The high moisture content of the air mass will promote strong water-loaded downdrafts, and lapse rates around 8 C/km within the lowest 1-2 km should facilitate downward momentum transfer. Consequently, strong to severe downburst winds appear possible - especially across central NC where the best overlap of MLCAPE, low-level lapse rates, and theta-e deficits should emerge by late afternoon. Despite the very favorable buoyancy, any appreciable deep-layer flow remains displaced well to the north, which will promote mostly disorganized single-cell and multicell convection. This will largely limit the duration and short-term predictability of any appreciable severe threat. ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 33308112 33478144 33818159 36068115 36408090 36498058 36507997 36477790 36217773 35757772 35237779 34717804 34127853 33777894 33407930 33147963 33098005 33158054 33308112 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more