Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD...FAR SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR NORTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats are expected tonight across a large portion of the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest. ...01Z Update... ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist along southern portions cold front currently extending from north-central MN southwestward into the NE Panhandle. Air mass ahead of the cold front is characterized by very moist low-levels (i.e. surface dewpoints in the 70s across eastern SD), steep mid-level lapse rates, and very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). Given the linear forcing, a linear storm mode remains favored with strong wind gusts as the primary severe threat. Additionally, storm cluster across south-central SD has recently shown a surge in forward motion, suggesting more forward-propagation off the front may be occurring. Farther south (across northern KS and far southern NE), a discrete storm continues to progress eastward across Sheridan County. Potential exists for this storm become more organized and strengthen as it continues eastward into more favorable low-level moisture and a strengthening low-level jet. Additionally, overall storm coverage is expected to increase ahead of this storm as the low-level jet increases. ...Far Northwest TX....Southwest/South-Central OK... Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible across the region as cluster of storms currently moving across southwest OK and far northwest TX continues eastward. More information about this area is available in MCD 1777. ..Mosier.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD...FAR SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR NORTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats are expected tonight across a large portion of the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest. ...01Z Update... ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist along southern portions cold front currently extending from north-central MN southwestward into the NE Panhandle. Air mass ahead of the cold front is characterized by very moist low-levels (i.e. surface dewpoints in the 70s across eastern SD), steep mid-level lapse rates, and very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). Given the linear forcing, a linear storm mode remains favored with strong wind gusts as the primary severe threat. Additionally, storm cluster across south-central SD has recently shown a surge in forward motion, suggesting more forward-propagation off the front may be occurring. Farther south (across northern KS and far southern NE), a discrete storm continues to progress eastward across Sheridan County. Potential exists for this storm become more organized and strengthen as it continues eastward into more favorable low-level moisture and a strengthening low-level jet. Additionally, overall storm coverage is expected to increase ahead of this storm as the low-level jet increases. ...Far Northwest TX....Southwest/South-Central OK... Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible across the region as cluster of storms currently moving across southwest OK and far northwest TX continues eastward. More information about this area is available in MCD 1777. ..Mosier.. 08/18/2019 Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE 9V9 TO 15 WNW HON TO 10 NE ATY TO 5 NNW VVV TO 25 NNE VVV TO 35 NW AXN. ..GLEASON..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...MPX...FGF...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-180140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC011-023-041-051-073-081-083-101-105-117-121-133-149-151-173- 180140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE CHIPPEWA DOUGLAS GRANT LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE ROCK STEVENS SWIFT YELLOW MEDICINE NEC003-015-027-043-051-089-103-107-139-179-180140- Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 9V9 TO 20 NNW 9V9 TO 20 SW HON. ..GLEASON..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-085-180140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO LYMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 590 SEVERE TSTM SD 171920Z - 180200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Initial storms over the Black Hills and northeast along a front in north-central South Dakota will pose a threat for mainly large hail. With time into the evening, one or more clusters is anticipated with an increasing risk for severe wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles south of Philip SD to 35 miles north northeast of Aberdeen SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S GLD TO 45 E GLD TO 20 SW MCK TO 20 SW MCK TO 30 E IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775 ..NAUSLAR..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-065-109-137-153-179-193-180140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC087-145-180140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1777 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1777 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle...northwest Texas...western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 180015Z - 180245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms have developed across the eastern Texas Panhandle, Texas Rolling Plains, and western Oklahoma. Severe wind will be the main threat, but a watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Temperatures warmed into the low 100s F with dewpoints in the mid 50s to 60s F this afternoon/evening across the southern Plains. A surface pressure trough extending southward through the Texas Panhandle along with deep boundary layer mixing helped initiate storms during the last hour or so. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 25-40 knots should support some transient supercellular development. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and dry sub-cloud layer, severe wind appears to be the main threat with severe wind recently reportedin Altus and Dickens County, Texas. Large hail is also possible with 1" hail recently reported in Beckham County, Oklahoma. However, warm mid-level temperatures and marginal shear/instability may mitigate hail growth. Storms may grow upscale and continue moving eastward after sunset as the low-level jet strengthens across the area. However, the overall severe threat should remain marginal and relatively isolated, thus a watch issuance is unlikely. ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33589897 33019990 33090064 33930151 34830107 35440074 36550003 36699907 36449832 36239799 35689771 35099773 34499805 34049844 33589897 Read more

MD 1776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1776 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...Portions of western/central NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 180000Z - 180200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A very isolated severe threat may exist this evening, with large hail and strong/gusty winds possible. However, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time, mainly due to the isolated nature of the severe threat. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this evening across the NE Panhandle ahead of a southward-moving cold front. The boundary layer across this region is very well mixed, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s ahead of the front. As these storms move eastward over the next couple of hours, they should encounter greater low-level moisture and gradually increasing instability. There appears to be some potential for this activity to strengthen as it moves eastward across western/central NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens later this evening mainly over central into eastern NE. A belt of 40-50 kt mid-level westerly winds has overspread this region, which is contributing to similar values of effective bulk shear. Supercells would conditionally be possible given the expected instability/shear parameter space, but overall convective coverage remains highly uncertain through this evening. If storms strengthen, then both large hail and strong/gusty winds would be possible. Regardless, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time, mainly due to the expected isolated nature of the severe threat. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42410267 42670167 42659975 42209932 41029930 40970017 40990185 41280233 42080264 42410267 Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW VTN TO 45 SSE PHP TO 30 SE PIR TO 40 WNW HON TO 55 NNW VVV. ..GLEASON..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-025-037-059-085-095-115-121-123-180040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CLARK DAY HAND LYMAN MELLETTE SPINK TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PIT TO 20 SW DUJ TO 25 ESE DUJ TO 10 N UNV TO 20 SW IPT TO 10 E IPT TO 25 NW AVP. WW 591 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180000Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774 ..NAUSLAR..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC005-033-063-113-180000- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CLEARFIELD INDIANA SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PIT TO 20 SW DUJ TO 25 ESE DUJ TO 10 N UNV TO 20 SW IPT TO 10 E IPT TO 25 NW AVP. WW 591 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180000Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774 ..NAUSLAR..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC005-033-063-113-180000- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CLEARFIELD INDIANA SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PIT TO 20 SW DUJ TO 25 ESE DUJ TO 10 N UNV TO 20 SW IPT TO 10 E IPT TO 25 NW AVP. WW 591 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180000Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774 ..NAUSLAR..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC005-033-063-113-180000- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CLEARFIELD INDIANA SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PIT TO 20 SW DUJ TO 25 ESE DUJ TO 10 N UNV TO 20 SW IPT TO 10 E IPT TO 25 NW AVP. WW 591 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180000Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774 ..NAUSLAR..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC005-033-063-113-180000- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CLEARFIELD INDIANA SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PIT TO 20 SW DUJ TO 25 ESE DUJ TO 10 N UNV TO 20 SW IPT TO 10 E IPT TO 25 NW AVP. WW 591 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180000Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774 ..NAUSLAR..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC005-033-063-113-180000- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CLEARFIELD INDIANA SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1772 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1772 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0522 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...portions of New England and Upstate New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172222Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to move eastward into the evening across New England and vicinity. Storm intensity will likely begin to wane after sunset, but damaging wind and large hail hail remain possible in the next 2+ hours. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed ahead an upper level shortwave trough moving over the eastern Great Lakes and southern Ontario/Quebec. Given the upper-level forcing for ascent that is present, the storm mode should continue to be quasi-linear. However, given convective temperatures are being breached ahead of the line/cloud cover amid moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) and with effective bulk shear of 30-40 knots, discrete cells are likely to continue developing ahead of the line. There is evidence of a strengthening cold pool and stronger rear inflow per KENX with strong winds remaining likely and several wind reports have been noted during the last hour. Isolated large hail is also possible along the southern periphery of the line or with any strong cell that can intensify into a weaker supercell ahead of the line. While storms are likely to continue moving east after sunset, instability will begin to weaken, and the severe threat will diminish. Given the marginal severe threat and relatively narrow window for severe wind/hail, a watch issuance is unlikely. ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 41027370 41057390 41127441 41337478 41617504 42877404 43557352 43937321 44217280 44537228 44687176 44497120 44097120 43447154 42627220 42007265 41597303 41027370 Read more

MD 1773 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1773 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern ND into northwestern/north-central MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172235Z - 180030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Mainly a strong/gusty wind threat should persist through the early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Compared to areas farther south in eastern SD, low-level moisture remains more limited late this afternoon across northwestern into north-central MN ahead of an eastward-moving cold front and attendant line of thunderstorms. Somewhat cooler surface temperatures and modest mid-level lapse rates are limiting instability across this region, with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg being estimated by 22Z mesoanalysis. A recent wind gust to 36 kt was observed at KFSE in northwestern MN, and similar strong/gusty winds may occur with convective downdrafts along the front in the short term (next couple of hours). Marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest embedded cores, but the linear mode should tend to limit the hail threat. This isolated severe threat should diminish later this evening with the loss of daytime heating and resultant gradual reduction of already weak instability. Watch issuance remains unlikely this evening due to the overall marginal nature of the severe risk. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 45989705 46289727 47849582 48799503 48819459 48729418 48669379 48649313 47929351 47349411 46379516 46129600 45989705 Read more

WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775 ..NAUSLAR..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-125-180040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-180040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC057-087-145-180040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1774 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591... FOR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1774 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0544 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...western Pennsylvania into northeast Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 591... Valid 172244Z - 180045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 591 continues. SUMMARY...Storms capable of marginally severe hail and wind continue to move east/southeast across western, central, and northeast Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...As an upper-level shortwave trough moves eastward across the eastern Great Lakes and southern Ontario/Quebec, storms developed along its southern/southeast periphery across Pennsylvania. CAPPI 7 and 9 km are trending mostly downward except for the storm in far northeast Pennsylvania south/southwest of BGM. However, there still remains some potential for marginally severe wind and hail with the stronger storms. A couple of storms could move out of the watch, but a local watch extension/expansion is unlikely at this time given the recent convective trends and expected waning storm intensity after sunset. Counties will continue to be cleared behind the broken line of storms until the watch expiration at 00z. ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 40277976 40647995 40987986 41137968 41227855 41337776 41497722 41857641 42027593 41957524 41837513 41247554 40517624 40377795 40297916 40277976 Read more

MD 1775 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592... FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1775 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...northeast Colorado...southwest Nebraska...northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592... Valid 172328Z - 180130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW592 with storms possibly move out of the watch in the next couple of hours. Severe hail and wind are the main threats. DISCUSSION...Storms have developed in northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas near a surface pressure trough and just north of a surface low located in east-central Colorado with severe hail/wind reported in GLD CWA. A hot, moist airmass is just east of the surface pressure trough resulting in 2000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, CIN remains across much of Kansas and into eastern Colorado and southwest Nebraska, which may limit eastward storm development/propagation, at least initially. Although the presence of mature supercells may reduce the impact of the CIN, and KGLD radar does show outflow surging ahead of the convection, which may help trigger new convection. Given the inhibition and effective bulk shear of 35-40 knots, supercellular storm mode will continue to be likely. As the low-level jet strengthens tonight, storms are likely to grow upscale across northwest Kansas and vicinity and move eastward. Recent HRRR solutions suggest the initial northwest Kansas convection may dissipate, but the storms currently in northeast Colorado may move into northwest Kansas and grow upscale with the strengthening low-level jet. A local watch extension will likely be needed and new watch may be necessary depending on how the next couple of hours plays out. ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 38509961 38300066 38260204 38590314 39930330 40240299 40250154 40200046 39999962 39719904 39149897 38849913 38509961 Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...MPX...FGF...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-180040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC011-023-041-051-073-081-083-101-105-117-121-133-149-151-155- 173-180040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE CHIPPEWA DOUGLAS GRANT LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE ROCK STEVENS SWIFT TRAVERSE YELLOW MEDICINE NEC003-015-027-043-051-089-103-107-139-179-180040- Read more