Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS behind a shortwave trough moving over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes tomorrow. Mid-level westerly flow of 25-50 knots will likely remain from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. Once again, daytime heating will deepen the boundary layer and allow stronger winds to mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%). This will be the fourth consecutive day for dry/windy conditions across the area and ERCs are now mostly between the 70th and 90th percentile. Hot/dry conditions will continue across much of the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS behind a shortwave trough moving over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes tomorrow. Mid-level westerly flow of 25-50 knots will likely remain from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. Once again, daytime heating will deepen the boundary layer and allow stronger winds to mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%). This will be the fourth consecutive day for dry/windy conditions across the area and ERCs are now mostly between the 70th and 90th percentile. Hot/dry conditions will continue across much of the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS behind a shortwave trough moving over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes tomorrow. Mid-level westerly flow of 25-50 knots will likely remain from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. Once again, daytime heating will deepen the boundary layer and allow stronger winds to mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%). This will be the fourth consecutive day for dry/windy conditions across the area and ERCs are now mostly between the 70th and 90th percentile. Hot/dry conditions will continue across much of the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS behind a shortwave trough moving over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes tomorrow. Mid-level westerly flow of 25-50 knots will likely remain from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. Once again, daytime heating will deepen the boundary layer and allow stronger winds to mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%). This will be the fourth consecutive day for dry/windy conditions across the area and ERCs are now mostly between the 70th and 90th percentile. Hot/dry conditions will continue across much of the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS behind a shortwave trough moving over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes tomorrow. Mid-level westerly flow of 25-50 knots will likely remain from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. Once again, daytime heating will deepen the boundary layer and allow stronger winds to mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%). This will be the fourth consecutive day for dry/windy conditions across the area and ERCs are now mostly between the 70th and 90th percentile. Hot/dry conditions will continue across much of the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 589 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N DDC TO 50 W HLC TO 35 ESE MCK. ..MARSH..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT...DDC...GLD...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 589 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-009-013-017-027-029-031-041-043-045-051-053-059-061- 063-065-085-087-089-091-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-127- 131-135-139-141-143-147-149-157-159-161-163-165-167-169-177-179- 183-195-197-201-209-170740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON BARTON BROWN CHASE CLAY CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY GOVE GRAHAM JACKSON JEFFERSON JEWELL JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN LINN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MIAMI MITCHELL MORRIS NEMAHA NESS OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RICE RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SHAWNEE SHERIDAN SMITH TREGO WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains with zonal upper-level flow across much of the CONUS. The dry slot will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. With daytime heating, stronger winds will likely mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions from the Snake River Plain through the Great Divide Basin and across portions of western/northern Colorado. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of 10-20% are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across the area. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in northern Arizona where multiple large fires are active, which produced smoke plumes seen on visible satellite imagery on Friday. Isolated dry thunderstorms are likely to develop across northwest Colorado, far northeast Utah, and far southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. High LCLs (around 3 km), a dry sub-cloud layer, and storm motions of 30-35 knots will limit wetting rains and increase chances for lightning ignitions. There is some concern that the Cu field will not become vertically developed enough for thunderstorms due to the limited amount of moisture (forecast precipitable water values of 0.4-0.55") and instability present. Isolated dry thunderstorms may also be possible across the Caprock and Texas Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. While wetting rains are likely, lightning ignitions on the periphery of storms have occurred recently per LUB. Given the high LCLs and forecast DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg, strong outflow winds are also possible. ..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains with zonal upper-level flow across much of the CONUS. The dry slot will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. With daytime heating, stronger winds will likely mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions from the Snake River Plain through the Great Divide Basin and across portions of western/northern Colorado. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of 10-20% are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across the area. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in northern Arizona where multiple large fires are active, which produced smoke plumes seen on visible satellite imagery on Friday. Isolated dry thunderstorms are likely to develop across northwest Colorado, far northeast Utah, and far southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. High LCLs (around 3 km), a dry sub-cloud layer, and storm motions of 30-35 knots will limit wetting rains and increase chances for lightning ignitions. There is some concern that the Cu field will not become vertically developed enough for thunderstorms due to the limited amount of moisture (forecast precipitable water values of 0.4-0.55") and instability present. Isolated dry thunderstorms may also be possible across the Caprock and Texas Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. While wetting rains are likely, lightning ignitions on the periphery of storms have occurred recently per LUB. Given the high LCLs and forecast DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg, strong outflow winds are also possible. ..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains with zonal upper-level flow across much of the CONUS. The dry slot will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. With daytime heating, stronger winds will likely mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions from the Snake River Plain through the Great Divide Basin and across portions of western/northern Colorado. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of 10-20% are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across the area. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in northern Arizona where multiple large fires are active, which produced smoke plumes seen on visible satellite imagery on Friday. Isolated dry thunderstorms are likely to develop across northwest Colorado, far northeast Utah, and far southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. High LCLs (around 3 km), a dry sub-cloud layer, and storm motions of 30-35 knots will limit wetting rains and increase chances for lightning ignitions. There is some concern that the Cu field will not become vertically developed enough for thunderstorms due to the limited amount of moisture (forecast precipitable water values of 0.4-0.55") and instability present. Isolated dry thunderstorms may also be possible across the Caprock and Texas Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. While wetting rains are likely, lightning ignitions on the periphery of storms have occurred recently per LUB. Given the high LCLs and forecast DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg, strong outflow winds are also possible. ..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains with zonal upper-level flow across much of the CONUS. The dry slot will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. With daytime heating, stronger winds will likely mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions from the Snake River Plain through the Great Divide Basin and across portions of western/northern Colorado. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of 10-20% are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across the area. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in northern Arizona where multiple large fires are active, which produced smoke plumes seen on visible satellite imagery on Friday. Isolated dry thunderstorms are likely to develop across northwest Colorado, far northeast Utah, and far southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. High LCLs (around 3 km), a dry sub-cloud layer, and storm motions of 30-35 knots will limit wetting rains and increase chances for lightning ignitions. There is some concern that the Cu field will not become vertically developed enough for thunderstorms due to the limited amount of moisture (forecast precipitable water values of 0.4-0.55") and instability present. Isolated dry thunderstorms may also be possible across the Caprock and Texas Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. While wetting rains are likely, lightning ignitions on the periphery of storms have occurred recently per LUB. Given the high LCLs and forecast DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg, strong outflow winds are also possible. ..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the northern Rockies and northern Plains with zonal upper-level flow across much of the CONUS. The dry slot will move over portions of the Intermountain West with stronger 700-500 mb flow stretching from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. With daytime heating, stronger winds will likely mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions from the Snake River Plain through the Great Divide Basin and across portions of western/northern Colorado. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of 10-20% are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across the area. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in northern Arizona where multiple large fires are active, which produced smoke plumes seen on visible satellite imagery on Friday. Isolated dry thunderstorms are likely to develop across northwest Colorado, far northeast Utah, and far southern Wyoming this afternoon/evening. High LCLs (around 3 km), a dry sub-cloud layer, and storm motions of 30-35 knots will limit wetting rains and increase chances for lightning ignitions. There is some concern that the Cu field will not become vertically developed enough for thunderstorms due to the limited amount of moisture (forecast precipitable water values of 0.4-0.55") and instability present. Isolated dry thunderstorms may also be possible across the Caprock and Texas Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. While wetting rains are likely, lightning ignitions on the periphery of storms have occurred recently per LUB. Given the high LCLs and forecast DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg, strong outflow winds are also possible. ..Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds are possible over much of Missouri and into eastern Kansas on Sunday. Isolated severe storms are otherwise possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario, north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be situated over the Upper MS Valley Sunday morning, and will eject rapidly northeast across the Great Lakes with a cold front moving east across WI and MI during the day. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend roughly from the MN/WI border across southeast NE and into central KS with an axis of 70s F dewpoints from IA to the Gulf Coast. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will also extend eastward across the OH Valley with warm advection aided by 30 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds. Heating generally south of I-70 and a moist air mass will lead to areas of strong instability, most notably across KS, MO, and OK. ...MO...eastern KS...northeast OK...northwest AR... Outflow from early day storms over IA, northern MO and IL will likely spread south across central MO during the day, with 70s F dewpoints and heating resulting in very strong instability. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, averaging across several models. A southward-moving MCS is possible along the old outflow, along with an embedded supercell or two with effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2. Damaging winds are most likely, but hail is possible with the more discrete storms. ...OH Valley northward to the Great Lakes... Storms are forecast to be ongoing across parts of IA, IL and WI related to warm advection with a southwesterly low-level jet. Some of this activity could produce strong wind gusts, but is expected to weaken during the day. Instability will develop northward ahead of the cold front over WI, but boundary-layer temperatures are forecast to remain relatively cool, with much of the instability elevated. Stronger destabilization will occur across IL, IN, and OH, with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Although deep-layer shear will generally be less than 35 kt, marginal hail is possible given cool temperatures aloft. Localized severe wind gusts will be possible as far east as western NY and PA. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds are possible over much of Missouri and into eastern Kansas on Sunday. Isolated severe storms are otherwise possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario, north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be situated over the Upper MS Valley Sunday morning, and will eject rapidly northeast across the Great Lakes with a cold front moving east across WI and MI during the day. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend roughly from the MN/WI border across southeast NE and into central KS with an axis of 70s F dewpoints from IA to the Gulf Coast. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will also extend eastward across the OH Valley with warm advection aided by 30 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds. Heating generally south of I-70 and a moist air mass will lead to areas of strong instability, most notably across KS, MO, and OK. ...MO...eastern KS...northeast OK...northwest AR... Outflow from early day storms over IA, northern MO and IL will likely spread south across central MO during the day, with 70s F dewpoints and heating resulting in very strong instability. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, averaging across several models. A southward-moving MCS is possible along the old outflow, along with an embedded supercell or two with effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2. Damaging winds are most likely, but hail is possible with the more discrete storms. ...OH Valley northward to the Great Lakes... Storms are forecast to be ongoing across parts of IA, IL and WI related to warm advection with a southwesterly low-level jet. Some of this activity could produce strong wind gusts, but is expected to weaken during the day. Instability will develop northward ahead of the cold front over WI, but boundary-layer temperatures are forecast to remain relatively cool, with much of the instability elevated. Stronger destabilization will occur across IL, IN, and OH, with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Although deep-layer shear will generally be less than 35 kt, marginal hail is possible given cool temperatures aloft. Localized severe wind gusts will be possible as far east as western NY and PA. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds are possible over much of Missouri and into eastern Kansas on Sunday. Isolated severe storms are otherwise possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario, north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be situated over the Upper MS Valley Sunday morning, and will eject rapidly northeast across the Great Lakes with a cold front moving east across WI and MI during the day. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend roughly from the MN/WI border across southeast NE and into central KS with an axis of 70s F dewpoints from IA to the Gulf Coast. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will also extend eastward across the OH Valley with warm advection aided by 30 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds. Heating generally south of I-70 and a moist air mass will lead to areas of strong instability, most notably across KS, MO, and OK. ...MO...eastern KS...northeast OK...northwest AR... Outflow from early day storms over IA, northern MO and IL will likely spread south across central MO during the day, with 70s F dewpoints and heating resulting in very strong instability. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, averaging across several models. A southward-moving MCS is possible along the old outflow, along with an embedded supercell or two with effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2. Damaging winds are most likely, but hail is possible with the more discrete storms. ...OH Valley northward to the Great Lakes... Storms are forecast to be ongoing across parts of IA, IL and WI related to warm advection with a southwesterly low-level jet. Some of this activity could produce strong wind gusts, but is expected to weaken during the day. Instability will develop northward ahead of the cold front over WI, but boundary-layer temperatures are forecast to remain relatively cool, with much of the instability elevated. Stronger destabilization will occur across IL, IN, and OH, with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Although deep-layer shear will generally be less than 35 kt, marginal hail is possible given cool temperatures aloft. Localized severe wind gusts will be possible as far east as western NY and PA. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds are possible over much of Missouri and into eastern Kansas on Sunday. Isolated severe storms are otherwise possible from northeast Oklahoma to Lake Ontario, north of the Ohio River. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be situated over the Upper MS Valley Sunday morning, and will eject rapidly northeast across the Great Lakes with a cold front moving east across WI and MI during the day. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend roughly from the MN/WI border across southeast NE and into central KS with an axis of 70s F dewpoints from IA to the Gulf Coast. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will also extend eastward across the OH Valley with warm advection aided by 30 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds. Heating generally south of I-70 and a moist air mass will lead to areas of strong instability, most notably across KS, MO, and OK. ...MO...eastern KS...northeast OK...northwest AR... Outflow from early day storms over IA, northern MO and IL will likely spread south across central MO during the day, with 70s F dewpoints and heating resulting in very strong instability. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, averaging across several models. A southward-moving MCS is possible along the old outflow, along with an embedded supercell or two with effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2. Damaging winds are most likely, but hail is possible with the more discrete storms. ...OH Valley northward to the Great Lakes... Storms are forecast to be ongoing across parts of IA, IL and WI related to warm advection with a southwesterly low-level jet. Some of this activity could produce strong wind gusts, but is expected to weaken during the day. Instability will develop northward ahead of the cold front over WI, but boundary-layer temperatures are forecast to remain relatively cool, with much of the instability elevated. Stronger destabilization will occur across IL, IN, and OH, with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Although deep-layer shear will generally be less than 35 kt, marginal hail is possible given cool temperatures aloft. Localized severe wind gusts will be possible as far east as western NY and PA. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected over parts of the northern and central Plains into thee upper Midwest later this afternoon into tonight. A few strong storms are also possible from the Ohio Valley into western New England. ...Synopsis... ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley region... Upper trough over western Canada will undergo significant amplification as it advances eastward today. A cold front will accompany this feature through the northern Plains. By 12Z the front will extend from eastern ND southwest into western SD. By early evening the front should stretch from northwest MN into southwestern SD. This region will reside along the northern fringe of the steeper mid-level lapse rates. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will reside in warm sector, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent accompanying the amplifying upper trough will overtake the frontal zone and storms should develop and intensify along the southeast- advancing cold front during the afternoon from eastern ND into central and southwest SD. Strengthening winds aloft will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear in frontal zone and some supercell structures appear likely across SD with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. Storms may evolve into line segments as they develop eastward toward the MS valley with a continued severe threat into the evening. ...Middle Mississippi Valley region... Widespread storms developing tonight will reinforce the front across KS and northern MO. This activity may be ongoing across KS and MO at the start of this period, but should decrease in coverage as it shifts east toward the OH Valley. This reinforced front may develop north during the day, but considerable uncertainty remains where this boundary will reside by 00Z. The warm sector south of and in vicinity of this boundary will become strongly unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Timing and placement of redevelopment of storms along this boundary is uncertain, but current thinking is that the atmosphere will probably remain capped to surface-based storms until evening when the low-level jet will augment isentropic ascent along and north of this feature. Storms should redevelop anywhere from northeast KS, eastern NE into IA where the environment will support supercells capable of mainly large hail, but a few tornadoes will also be possible if development occurs before the boundary layer decouples. Activity may grow upscale into an MCS and continue eastward into northern IL overnight with a continued threat for mainly damaging wind. ...Central Plains... Deep mixing in vicinity of trough/dryline feature will once again support high-based storms from the TX Panhandle into western OK and southern KS with primary threat being isolated damaging wind and hail. Other storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain or along a dryline from eastern CO into southeast WY and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind and large hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ohio Valley region... An MCV from ongoing storms over the Middle MS Valley will continue into the OH Valley during the day where moderate instability and 30-35 kt deep layer flow will reside. Storms may intensify during and afternoon and become capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected over parts of the northern and central Plains into thee upper Midwest later this afternoon into tonight. A few strong storms are also possible from the Ohio Valley into western New England. ...Synopsis... ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley region... Upper trough over western Canada will undergo significant amplification as it advances eastward today. A cold front will accompany this feature through the northern Plains. By 12Z the front will extend from eastern ND southwest into western SD. By early evening the front should stretch from northwest MN into southwestern SD. This region will reside along the northern fringe of the steeper mid-level lapse rates. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will reside in warm sector, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent accompanying the amplifying upper trough will overtake the frontal zone and storms should develop and intensify along the southeast- advancing cold front during the afternoon from eastern ND into central and southwest SD. Strengthening winds aloft will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear in frontal zone and some supercell structures appear likely across SD with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. Storms may evolve into line segments as they develop eastward toward the MS valley with a continued severe threat into the evening. ...Middle Mississippi Valley region... Widespread storms developing tonight will reinforce the front across KS and northern MO. This activity may be ongoing across KS and MO at the start of this period, but should decrease in coverage as it shifts east toward the OH Valley. This reinforced front may develop north during the day, but considerable uncertainty remains where this boundary will reside by 00Z. The warm sector south of and in vicinity of this boundary will become strongly unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Timing and placement of redevelopment of storms along this boundary is uncertain, but current thinking is that the atmosphere will probably remain capped to surface-based storms until evening when the low-level jet will augment isentropic ascent along and north of this feature. Storms should redevelop anywhere from northeast KS, eastern NE into IA where the environment will support supercells capable of mainly large hail, but a few tornadoes will also be possible if development occurs before the boundary layer decouples. Activity may grow upscale into an MCS and continue eastward into northern IL overnight with a continued threat for mainly damaging wind. ...Central Plains... Deep mixing in vicinity of trough/dryline feature will once again support high-based storms from the TX Panhandle into western OK and southern KS with primary threat being isolated damaging wind and hail. Other storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain or along a dryline from eastern CO into southeast WY and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind and large hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ohio Valley region... An MCV from ongoing storms over the Middle MS Valley will continue into the OH Valley during the day where moderate instability and 30-35 kt deep layer flow will reside. Storms may intensify during and afternoon and become capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected over parts of the northern and central Plains into thee upper Midwest later this afternoon into tonight. A few strong storms are also possible from the Ohio Valley into western New England. ...Synopsis... ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley region... Upper trough over western Canada will undergo significant amplification as it advances eastward today. A cold front will accompany this feature through the northern Plains. By 12Z the front will extend from eastern ND southwest into western SD. By early evening the front should stretch from northwest MN into southwestern SD. This region will reside along the northern fringe of the steeper mid-level lapse rates. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will reside in warm sector, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent accompanying the amplifying upper trough will overtake the frontal zone and storms should develop and intensify along the southeast- advancing cold front during the afternoon from eastern ND into central and southwest SD. Strengthening winds aloft will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear in frontal zone and some supercell structures appear likely across SD with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. Storms may evolve into line segments as they develop eastward toward the MS valley with a continued severe threat into the evening. ...Middle Mississippi Valley region... Widespread storms developing tonight will reinforce the front across KS and northern MO. This activity may be ongoing across KS and MO at the start of this period, but should decrease in coverage as it shifts east toward the OH Valley. This reinforced front may develop north during the day, but considerable uncertainty remains where this boundary will reside by 00Z. The warm sector south of and in vicinity of this boundary will become strongly unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Timing and placement of redevelopment of storms along this boundary is uncertain, but current thinking is that the atmosphere will probably remain capped to surface-based storms until evening when the low-level jet will augment isentropic ascent along and north of this feature. Storms should redevelop anywhere from northeast KS, eastern NE into IA where the environment will support supercells capable of mainly large hail, but a few tornadoes will also be possible if development occurs before the boundary layer decouples. Activity may grow upscale into an MCS and continue eastward into northern IL overnight with a continued threat for mainly damaging wind. ...Central Plains... Deep mixing in vicinity of trough/dryline feature will once again support high-based storms from the TX Panhandle into western OK and southern KS with primary threat being isolated damaging wind and hail. Other storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain or along a dryline from eastern CO into southeast WY and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind and large hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ohio Valley region... An MCV from ongoing storms over the Middle MS Valley will continue into the OH Valley during the day where moderate instability and 30-35 kt deep layer flow will reside. Storms may intensify during and afternoon and become capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected over parts of the northern and central Plains into thee upper Midwest later this afternoon into tonight. A few strong storms are also possible from the Ohio Valley into western New England. ...Synopsis... ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley region... Upper trough over western Canada will undergo significant amplification as it advances eastward today. A cold front will accompany this feature through the northern Plains. By 12Z the front will extend from eastern ND southwest into western SD. By early evening the front should stretch from northwest MN into southwestern SD. This region will reside along the northern fringe of the steeper mid-level lapse rates. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will reside in warm sector, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent accompanying the amplifying upper trough will overtake the frontal zone and storms should develop and intensify along the southeast- advancing cold front during the afternoon from eastern ND into central and southwest SD. Strengthening winds aloft will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear in frontal zone and some supercell structures appear likely across SD with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. Storms may evolve into line segments as they develop eastward toward the MS valley with a continued severe threat into the evening. ...Middle Mississippi Valley region... Widespread storms developing tonight will reinforce the front across KS and northern MO. This activity may be ongoing across KS and MO at the start of this period, but should decrease in coverage as it shifts east toward the OH Valley. This reinforced front may develop north during the day, but considerable uncertainty remains where this boundary will reside by 00Z. The warm sector south of and in vicinity of this boundary will become strongly unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Timing and placement of redevelopment of storms along this boundary is uncertain, but current thinking is that the atmosphere will probably remain capped to surface-based storms until evening when the low-level jet will augment isentropic ascent along and north of this feature. Storms should redevelop anywhere from northeast KS, eastern NE into IA where the environment will support supercells capable of mainly large hail, but a few tornadoes will also be possible if development occurs before the boundary layer decouples. Activity may grow upscale into an MCS and continue eastward into northern IL overnight with a continued threat for mainly damaging wind. ...Central Plains... Deep mixing in vicinity of trough/dryline feature will once again support high-based storms from the TX Panhandle into western OK and southern KS with primary threat being isolated damaging wind and hail. Other storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain or along a dryline from eastern CO into southeast WY and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability during the afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind and large hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ohio Valley region... An MCV from ongoing storms over the Middle MS Valley will continue into the OH Valley during the day where moderate instability and 30-35 kt deep layer flow will reside. Storms may intensify during and afternoon and become capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/17/2019 Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0589 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more