Severe Storms

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BMI TO 30 NE MMO TO 50 NNE MMO TO 45 SSW RAC TO 15 ESE RAC TO 40 SSE MTW. ..ELLIOTT..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...IWX...GRR...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-043-091-197-181540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE KANKAKEE WILL INC039-049-073-085-087-089-091-099-111-113-127-131-141-149-151- 183-181540- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELKHART FULTON JASPER KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL NEWTON NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WHITLEY MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-057-065-067-075-077-081-117- 121-139-149-159-181540- Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-thunderstorm threat today will be damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a belt of zonal to gently cyclonic mean flow will be observed through the period across the northern half of the CONUS. As a cyclone moves slowly northeastward across northern MB, the trailing shortwave trough should pivot from the Dakotas across MN and Lake Superior to northeastern ON. As that occurs, convectively aided/induced vorticity lobes should move eastward across the upper Great Lakes. This includes a shortwave perturbation associated with a pronounced MCV now located over southern WI, and extending south-southwestward behind a band of convection across southern WI and northwestern IL. The 11Z surface chart showed a low near EAU, related to the MCV, with wavy warm front extending across western/southern WI and southern Lower MI. This front should drift northward before being overtaken by an ongoing MCS and additional convection developing farther east. A cold front was drawn from southeastern MN across southeastern NE and northwestern KS. By 00Z this front should reach eastern Upper MI, central WI, southern IA, central/southwestern KS, and southeastern CO. By 12Z this front should extend from northern Lower MI to northern IL, central/western MO, northwestern OK, becoming quasistationary northwestward into southeastern CO. ...Great Lakes vicinity... An intermittently organized band of convection, continuing eastward from overnight activity across IA, has persisted across the Mississippi River the past couple hours. Some of this activity may strengthen across the remainder of the northern IL/southern WI/Lake Michigan region eastward over northern IN and southern lower MI, as the foregoing/inflow-layer air mass destabilizes from a combination of warm advection and diabatic surface heating. Recovery behind newer convection over northeastern IL is uncertain in magnitude and northern extent. See SPC severe thunderstorm watch 597 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details. In concert with seasonally steep low/middle-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture (60s to near 70 F surface dew points), areas of 2000-3000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE are expected to develop. This will occur amidst difluent but generally westerly mid/upper winds, enhanced on the mesoscale by height falls related to the MCV, and a plume of large-scale DCVA/lift preceding the shortwave trough. As the heating continues, MLCINH effectively will vanish over northeastern IL and eastward through midday, potentially fostering additional convective development and severe potential in and near the watch area, regardless of the morphology of the initial MCS. Subsequent aggregation and upscale growth should shift the primary threat of damaging winds across lower MI and northern IN. In addition, areas of relatively maximized effective SRH may support localized tornado potential in QLCS circulations. ...Ozarks to portions of OK... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, with highly variable coverage in space and time, are possible through the overnight period across this region. Activity should be concentrated mainly near outflow/ differential-heating boundaries area-wide and near a weak convergence zone over the southwestern OK/northwest TX region this afternoon. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur, with well- mixed air below LFC developing this afternoon, and persisting into tonight above a slowly stabilizing near-surface layer, aiding in maintenance of hail/gusts to surface. A relative concentration in severe potential also may become apparent this afternoon over portions of this region, especially in the Ozarks/eastern OK/southeastern KS area. Beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, pockets of relatively convectively undisturbed boundary-layer moisture and strong heating may support MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg. Uncertainties regarding location, orientation, and strength of supportive mesoscale boundaries preclude a more- concentrated area of unconditional probabilities at this time. ..Edwards/Marsh.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-thunderstorm threat today will be damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a belt of zonal to gently cyclonic mean flow will be observed through the period across the northern half of the CONUS. As a cyclone moves slowly northeastward across northern MB, the trailing shortwave trough should pivot from the Dakotas across MN and Lake Superior to northeastern ON. As that occurs, convectively aided/induced vorticity lobes should move eastward across the upper Great Lakes. This includes a shortwave perturbation associated with a pronounced MCV now located over southern WI, and extending south-southwestward behind a band of convection across southern WI and northwestern IL. The 11Z surface chart showed a low near EAU, related to the MCV, with wavy warm front extending across western/southern WI and southern Lower MI. This front should drift northward before being overtaken by an ongoing MCS and additional convection developing farther east. A cold front was drawn from southeastern MN across southeastern NE and northwestern KS. By 00Z this front should reach eastern Upper MI, central WI, southern IA, central/southwestern KS, and southeastern CO. By 12Z this front should extend from northern Lower MI to northern IL, central/western MO, northwestern OK, becoming quasistationary northwestward into southeastern CO. ...Great Lakes vicinity... An intermittently organized band of convection, continuing eastward from overnight activity across IA, has persisted across the Mississippi River the past couple hours. Some of this activity may strengthen across the remainder of the northern IL/southern WI/Lake Michigan region eastward over northern IN and southern lower MI, as the foregoing/inflow-layer air mass destabilizes from a combination of warm advection and diabatic surface heating. Recovery behind newer convection over northeastern IL is uncertain in magnitude and northern extent. See SPC severe thunderstorm watch 597 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details. In concert with seasonally steep low/middle-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture (60s to near 70 F surface dew points), areas of 2000-3000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE are expected to develop. This will occur amidst difluent but generally westerly mid/upper winds, enhanced on the mesoscale by height falls related to the MCV, and a plume of large-scale DCVA/lift preceding the shortwave trough. As the heating continues, MLCINH effectively will vanish over northeastern IL and eastward through midday, potentially fostering additional convective development and severe potential in and near the watch area, regardless of the morphology of the initial MCS. Subsequent aggregation and upscale growth should shift the primary threat of damaging winds across lower MI and northern IN. In addition, areas of relatively maximized effective SRH may support localized tornado potential in QLCS circulations. ...Ozarks to portions of OK... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, with highly variable coverage in space and time, are possible through the overnight period across this region. Activity should be concentrated mainly near outflow/ differential-heating boundaries area-wide and near a weak convergence zone over the southwestern OK/northwest TX region this afternoon. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur, with well- mixed air below LFC developing this afternoon, and persisting into tonight above a slowly stabilizing near-surface layer, aiding in maintenance of hail/gusts to surface. A relative concentration in severe potential also may become apparent this afternoon over portions of this region, especially in the Ozarks/eastern OK/southeastern KS area. Beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, pockets of relatively convectively undisturbed boundary-layer moisture and strong heating may support MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg. Uncertainties regarding location, orientation, and strength of supportive mesoscale boundaries preclude a more- concentrated area of unconditional probabilities at this time. ..Edwards/Marsh.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-thunderstorm threat today will be damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a belt of zonal to gently cyclonic mean flow will be observed through the period across the northern half of the CONUS. As a cyclone moves slowly northeastward across northern MB, the trailing shortwave trough should pivot from the Dakotas across MN and Lake Superior to northeastern ON. As that occurs, convectively aided/induced vorticity lobes should move eastward across the upper Great Lakes. This includes a shortwave perturbation associated with a pronounced MCV now located over southern WI, and extending south-southwestward behind a band of convection across southern WI and northwestern IL. The 11Z surface chart showed a low near EAU, related to the MCV, with wavy warm front extending across western/southern WI and southern Lower MI. This front should drift northward before being overtaken by an ongoing MCS and additional convection developing farther east. A cold front was drawn from southeastern MN across southeastern NE and northwestern KS. By 00Z this front should reach eastern Upper MI, central WI, southern IA, central/southwestern KS, and southeastern CO. By 12Z this front should extend from northern Lower MI to northern IL, central/western MO, northwestern OK, becoming quasistationary northwestward into southeastern CO. ...Great Lakes vicinity... An intermittently organized band of convection, continuing eastward from overnight activity across IA, has persisted across the Mississippi River the past couple hours. Some of this activity may strengthen across the remainder of the northern IL/southern WI/Lake Michigan region eastward over northern IN and southern lower MI, as the foregoing/inflow-layer air mass destabilizes from a combination of warm advection and diabatic surface heating. Recovery behind newer convection over northeastern IL is uncertain in magnitude and northern extent. See SPC severe thunderstorm watch 597 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details. In concert with seasonally steep low/middle-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture (60s to near 70 F surface dew points), areas of 2000-3000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE are expected to develop. This will occur amidst difluent but generally westerly mid/upper winds, enhanced on the mesoscale by height falls related to the MCV, and a plume of large-scale DCVA/lift preceding the shortwave trough. As the heating continues, MLCINH effectively will vanish over northeastern IL and eastward through midday, potentially fostering additional convective development and severe potential in and near the watch area, regardless of the morphology of the initial MCS. Subsequent aggregation and upscale growth should shift the primary threat of damaging winds across lower MI and northern IN. In addition, areas of relatively maximized effective SRH may support localized tornado potential in QLCS circulations. ...Ozarks to portions of OK... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, with highly variable coverage in space and time, are possible through the overnight period across this region. Activity should be concentrated mainly near outflow/ differential-heating boundaries area-wide and near a weak convergence zone over the southwestern OK/northwest TX region this afternoon. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur, with well- mixed air below LFC developing this afternoon, and persisting into tonight above a slowly stabilizing near-surface layer, aiding in maintenance of hail/gusts to surface. A relative concentration in severe potential also may become apparent this afternoon over portions of this region, especially in the Ozarks/eastern OK/southeastern KS area. Beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, pockets of relatively convectively undisturbed boundary-layer moisture and strong heating may support MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg. Uncertainties regarding location, orientation, and strength of supportive mesoscale boundaries preclude a more- concentrated area of unconditional probabilities at this time. ..Edwards/Marsh.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-thunderstorm threat today will be damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a belt of zonal to gently cyclonic mean flow will be observed through the period across the northern half of the CONUS. As a cyclone moves slowly northeastward across northern MB, the trailing shortwave trough should pivot from the Dakotas across MN and Lake Superior to northeastern ON. As that occurs, convectively aided/induced vorticity lobes should move eastward across the upper Great Lakes. This includes a shortwave perturbation associated with a pronounced MCV now located over southern WI, and extending south-southwestward behind a band of convection across southern WI and northwestern IL. The 11Z surface chart showed a low near EAU, related to the MCV, with wavy warm front extending across western/southern WI and southern Lower MI. This front should drift northward before being overtaken by an ongoing MCS and additional convection developing farther east. A cold front was drawn from southeastern MN across southeastern NE and northwestern KS. By 00Z this front should reach eastern Upper MI, central WI, southern IA, central/southwestern KS, and southeastern CO. By 12Z this front should extend from northern Lower MI to northern IL, central/western MO, northwestern OK, becoming quasistationary northwestward into southeastern CO. ...Great Lakes vicinity... An intermittently organized band of convection, continuing eastward from overnight activity across IA, has persisted across the Mississippi River the past couple hours. Some of this activity may strengthen across the remainder of the northern IL/southern WI/Lake Michigan region eastward over northern IN and southern lower MI, as the foregoing/inflow-layer air mass destabilizes from a combination of warm advection and diabatic surface heating. Recovery behind newer convection over northeastern IL is uncertain in magnitude and northern extent. See SPC severe thunderstorm watch 597 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details. In concert with seasonally steep low/middle-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture (60s to near 70 F surface dew points), areas of 2000-3000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE are expected to develop. This will occur amidst difluent but generally westerly mid/upper winds, enhanced on the mesoscale by height falls related to the MCV, and a plume of large-scale DCVA/lift preceding the shortwave trough. As the heating continues, MLCINH effectively will vanish over northeastern IL and eastward through midday, potentially fostering additional convective development and severe potential in and near the watch area, regardless of the morphology of the initial MCS. Subsequent aggregation and upscale growth should shift the primary threat of damaging winds across lower MI and northern IN. In addition, areas of relatively maximized effective SRH may support localized tornado potential in QLCS circulations. ...Ozarks to portions of OK... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, with highly variable coverage in space and time, are possible through the overnight period across this region. Activity should be concentrated mainly near outflow/ differential-heating boundaries area-wide and near a weak convergence zone over the southwestern OK/northwest TX region this afternoon. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur, with well- mixed air below LFC developing this afternoon, and persisting into tonight above a slowly stabilizing near-surface layer, aiding in maintenance of hail/gusts to surface. A relative concentration in severe potential also may become apparent this afternoon over portions of this region, especially in the Ozarks/eastern OK/southeastern KS area. Beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, pockets of relatively convectively undisturbed boundary-layer moisture and strong heating may support MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg. Uncertainties regarding location, orientation, and strength of supportive mesoscale boundaries preclude a more- concentrated area of unconditional probabilities at this time. ..Edwards/Marsh.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-thunderstorm threat today will be damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a belt of zonal to gently cyclonic mean flow will be observed through the period across the northern half of the CONUS. As a cyclone moves slowly northeastward across northern MB, the trailing shortwave trough should pivot from the Dakotas across MN and Lake Superior to northeastern ON. As that occurs, convectively aided/induced vorticity lobes should move eastward across the upper Great Lakes. This includes a shortwave perturbation associated with a pronounced MCV now located over southern WI, and extending south-southwestward behind a band of convection across southern WI and northwestern IL. The 11Z surface chart showed a low near EAU, related to the MCV, with wavy warm front extending across western/southern WI and southern Lower MI. This front should drift northward before being overtaken by an ongoing MCS and additional convection developing farther east. A cold front was drawn from southeastern MN across southeastern NE and northwestern KS. By 00Z this front should reach eastern Upper MI, central WI, southern IA, central/southwestern KS, and southeastern CO. By 12Z this front should extend from northern Lower MI to northern IL, central/western MO, northwestern OK, becoming quasistationary northwestward into southeastern CO. ...Great Lakes vicinity... An intermittently organized band of convection, continuing eastward from overnight activity across IA, has persisted across the Mississippi River the past couple hours. Some of this activity may strengthen across the remainder of the northern IL/southern WI/Lake Michigan region eastward over northern IN and southern lower MI, as the foregoing/inflow-layer air mass destabilizes from a combination of warm advection and diabatic surface heating. Recovery behind newer convection over northeastern IL is uncertain in magnitude and northern extent. See SPC severe thunderstorm watch 597 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details. In concert with seasonally steep low/middle-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture (60s to near 70 F surface dew points), areas of 2000-3000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE are expected to develop. This will occur amidst difluent but generally westerly mid/upper winds, enhanced on the mesoscale by height falls related to the MCV, and a plume of large-scale DCVA/lift preceding the shortwave trough. As the heating continues, MLCINH effectively will vanish over northeastern IL and eastward through midday, potentially fostering additional convective development and severe potential in and near the watch area, regardless of the morphology of the initial MCS. Subsequent aggregation and upscale growth should shift the primary threat of damaging winds across lower MI and northern IN. In addition, areas of relatively maximized effective SRH may support localized tornado potential in QLCS circulations. ...Ozarks to portions of OK... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, with highly variable coverage in space and time, are possible through the overnight period across this region. Activity should be concentrated mainly near outflow/ differential-heating boundaries area-wide and near a weak convergence zone over the southwestern OK/northwest TX region this afternoon. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur, with well- mixed air below LFC developing this afternoon, and persisting into tonight above a slowly stabilizing near-surface layer, aiding in maintenance of hail/gusts to surface. A relative concentration in severe potential also may become apparent this afternoon over portions of this region, especially in the Ozarks/eastern OK/southeastern KS area. Beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, pockets of relatively convectively undisturbed boundary-layer moisture and strong heating may support MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg. Uncertainties regarding location, orientation, and strength of supportive mesoscale boundaries preclude a more- concentrated area of unconditional probabilities at this time. ..Edwards/Marsh.. 08/18/2019 Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PIA TO 25 NE MLI TO 35 E MSN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...IWX...GRR...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-031-037-043-063-073-089-091-093-097-099-103-111-141- 155-195-197-201-181340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO INC039-049-073-085-087-089-091-099-111-113-127-131-141-149-151- 183-181340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELKHART FULTON JASPER KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE Read more

MD 1787 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597... FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1787 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...southeast Wisconsin...northeast Illinois...northwest Indiana...and southwest Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597... Valid 181240Z - 181445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue this morning across the region. Moderate instability and sufficient shear should continue to support a severe threat this morning. DISCUSSION...Initial line of thunderstorms has weakened considerably this morning as increasing precipitation ahead of the line -- stemming from thunderstorms that developed south-southwest of Chicago -- has acted to stabilize the airmass across north-central Illinois and southern Wisconsin. The strongest thunderstorm cluster from this original band of storms is currently located across southeast Wisconsin and will have the potential to pose a severe threat for another couple hours before moving east over Lake Michigan. As previously mentioned, additional thunderstorms developed to the south-southwest of Chicago, ahead of the original line of storms. These thunderstorms are within a better severe thunderstorm environment than those to the north given less convective coverage allowing most-unstable CAPE values to approach 2000 J/kg, and thus have a greater potential to pose a severe wind or hail threat. At present, these storms will move across the greater Chicago metro over the next 1-2 hours, with hail and wind threats likely. These storms will continue east-northeast through the morning, eventually moving over Lake Michigan. ..Marsh.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 41049091 41209108 41419104 41449078 41599076 41599087 42029080 42069013 42489062 42508982 43228976 43318965 43308901 43208900 43188789 43358783 43408645 43468638 43458608 43288607 43298559 43408553 43438437 42808436 42778417 42068412 42058483 41528482 41538517 40998536 40968558 41048583 40928619 40908692 40738713 40728752 40988754 40998824 41098827 41088891 40908890 40928904 41078907 41098930 41138931 41128957 41228965 41228981 41118988 41149040 41049043 41049091 Read more

MD 1786 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1786 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...far northwest Arkansas...and southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596... Valid 181109Z - 181215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity continues to diminish this morning across the region. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #596 may need to be canceled early. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity continues to wane across the area this morning. Radar presentation continues to show a decrease in reflectivity and infrared satellite imagery indicates warming cloud tops. Thus, the near-term severe risk appears to have decreased substantially. Although reintensification may occur as diurnal heating commences, confidence in this is low given just how far south the outflow boundary pushed in Oklahoma and the decrease in deep-layer shear across southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. Thus, severe thunderstorm watch #596 may be canceled early. ..Marsh.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 36079544 36989539 37009510 37349505 37349465 37629456 37619409 38229399 38199350 38099351 38079312 38249302 38189264 38009238 37769243 37649225 37469228 37479264 37079269 37059289 36829290 36789334 36119333 36129348 35769354 35759451 35639449 35629514 35819513 35829529 36099523 36079544 Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0597 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MKO TO 35 ENE BVO TO 35 S SZL. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-181140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-181140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MOC009-011-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-105-109-119-145-167- 185-209-225-181140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MKO TO 35 ENE BVO TO 35 S SZL. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-181140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-181140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MOC009-011-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-105-109-119-145-167- 185-209-225-181140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MKO TO 35 ENE BVO TO 35 S SZL. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-181140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-181140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MOC009-011-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-105-109-119-145-167- 185-209-225-181140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE Read more

WW 596 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 180740Z - 181500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 596 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern Arkansas Southeastern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Northeastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday morning from 240 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A complex of sporadically severe thunderstorms may maintain or even enlarge its influence as it moves into a favorably moist/unstable environment across the watch area through local midmorning hours. Damaging/severe gusts will remain the main hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east southeast of Tulsa OK to 70 miles north of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 594...WW 595... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1785 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0544 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...northern Illinois...southern Wisconsin...southern Lake Michigan...northern Indiana...and southwest Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181044Z - 181215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Organized cluster of thunderstorms continue east this morning across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. A gradual increase in thunderstorm intensity through the morning should result in the need for a severe thunderstorm watch at some point this morning. DISCUSSION...Well-organized cluster of thunderstorms is moving east across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois this morning. This activity is located to the southeast of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) located to the east of Minneapolis. Despite recent measured winds being below severe criteria, this cluster of storms is moving into an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment, where most-unstable CAPE values are around 2500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is being augmented by the circulation associated with the MCV and is between 35-45 knots. Further destabilization of the atmosphere is expected with the onset of diurnal heating, which should act to remove convective inhibition by mid morning. Thus, a gradual increase in thunderstorm intensity is expected through the morning, with an attendant increase in the threat for damaging thunderstorm winds and hail. Additionally, more isolated thunderstorms are developing farther east along the northern edge of the better low-level moisture. As the airmass further destabilizes, the severe potential of these thunderstorms should also increase. Therefore, the region will be monitored for a severe thunderstorm watch, which appears likely sometime this morning. ..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 43539011 42728538 40658564 41089110 43539011 Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-180940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC011-021-037-107-180940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LINN MOC009-011-013-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-105-109-119-145- 167-185-209-217-225-180940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BATES CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, an unstable air mass will remain in place from the mid MS Valley across the OH Valley as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Cooler and drier air will gradually spread southeastward across this region behind a cold front, roughly oriented east-west north of the OH River by late afternoon. Scattered storms are likely within this zone, and a few storms could be severe with damaging winds especially from OH eastward to the coast in closer proximity to the stronger shear. Given the likelihood of ongoing storms Wednesday morning, predictability is currently too low to denote a 15% or greater corridor, but upgrades are possible in later outlooks. To the west, another corridor of storms is likely from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley, beneath weaker winds aloft and along a stationary front and/or outflow boundaries, most likely from KS into MO. At least marginal severe storms will be possible during the day. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Thursday/D5, providing stable conditions across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will result in lax flow over much of the CONUS until another trough amplification occurs during the Saturday/D7 and Sunday/D8 time frame, with strong northwest flow affecting the northern Rockies/Plains, Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Southerly winds will return to the Plains as high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the East Coast, with a plume of 65-70 F surface dewpoints likely across the Plains and as far north as the Dakotas and MN. Predictability is certainly too low for this scenario, but severe storms may be possible over the northern Plains at that time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, an unstable air mass will remain in place from the mid MS Valley across the OH Valley as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Cooler and drier air will gradually spread southeastward across this region behind a cold front, roughly oriented east-west north of the OH River by late afternoon. Scattered storms are likely within this zone, and a few storms could be severe with damaging winds especially from OH eastward to the coast in closer proximity to the stronger shear. Given the likelihood of ongoing storms Wednesday morning, predictability is currently too low to denote a 15% or greater corridor, but upgrades are possible in later outlooks. To the west, another corridor of storms is likely from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley, beneath weaker winds aloft and along a stationary front and/or outflow boundaries, most likely from KS into MO. At least marginal severe storms will be possible during the day. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Thursday/D5, providing stable conditions across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will result in lax flow over much of the CONUS until another trough amplification occurs during the Saturday/D7 and Sunday/D8 time frame, with strong northwest flow affecting the northern Rockies/Plains, Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Southerly winds will return to the Plains as high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the East Coast, with a plume of 65-70 F surface dewpoints likely across the Plains and as far north as the Dakotas and MN. Predictability is certainly too low for this scenario, but severe storms may be possible over the northern Plains at that time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, an unstable air mass will remain in place from the mid MS Valley across the OH Valley as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Cooler and drier air will gradually spread southeastward across this region behind a cold front, roughly oriented east-west north of the OH River by late afternoon. Scattered storms are likely within this zone, and a few storms could be severe with damaging winds especially from OH eastward to the coast in closer proximity to the stronger shear. Given the likelihood of ongoing storms Wednesday morning, predictability is currently too low to denote a 15% or greater corridor, but upgrades are possible in later outlooks. To the west, another corridor of storms is likely from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley, beneath weaker winds aloft and along a stationary front and/or outflow boundaries, most likely from KS into MO. At least marginal severe storms will be possible during the day. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Thursday/D5, providing stable conditions across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will result in lax flow over much of the CONUS until another trough amplification occurs during the Saturday/D7 and Sunday/D8 time frame, with strong northwest flow affecting the northern Rockies/Plains, Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Southerly winds will return to the Plains as high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the East Coast, with a plume of 65-70 F surface dewpoints likely across the Plains and as far north as the Dakotas and MN. Predictability is certainly too low for this scenario, but severe storms may be possible over the northern Plains at that time. Read more

MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...far northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...and southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 180745Z - 180945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri this morning. These thunderstorms will be capable of hail and gusty winds. A watch is not currently expected, but conditions will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this morning across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, likely in response to ascent stemming from the ageostrophic mass response to the thunderstorms across central Kansas. This is suggested by broad region of surface pressure falls the last few hours. The airmass here is moderately to very unstable with most-unstable CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for promoting thunderstorm updraft/downdraft organization, thus a severe hail or wind threat cannot be ruled out this morning. One negative for a more widespread severe event will be the expanding precipitation shield from the mesoscale convective system to the southwest. This may act to limit the overall instability available locally to thunderstorm updrafts, resulting in a more isolated/episodic severe potential, rather than a sustained one. Given the uncertainty, the need for a watch is unclear. Presently a watch is currently not expected, but conditions will continue to be maintained. ..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38569543 39699548 41669395 41159148 38589398 38569543 Read more