Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level jet will overspread much of the Pacific Northwest today with the nose of the jet reaching across portions of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Ahead of a front that is forecast to move through the northwestern CONUS and parts of the Intermountain west tomorrow, dry and windy conditions are likely to occur across southeastern Oregon, the northern Great Basin and parts of the central Rockies. Despite the possibility of some high-level clouds, boundary-layer mixing should promote elevated fire weather conditions of 15-20 mph surface winds amidst 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Locally critical conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Snake River Valley as well as portions of southern Wyoming. Given the relative lack of a stronger surface pressure gradient and even the most aggressive high-resolution guidance only signaling locally critical fire weather conditions, the critical area within the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming was removed. ..Wendt.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft over the north-central CONUS is expected to deepen throughout the period as a shortwave trough (and associated mid-level jet streak) moves quickly eastward/southeastward from Alberta/northern Rockies through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and northern Plains. In response to the progression of this shortwave, upper ridging centered over the Great Lakes early Sunday is expected shift eastward off the Northeast coast. At the surface, a low attendant to the northern Plains shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across Manitoba while an associated cold front sweeps across the northern Plains. Elsewhere, warm and moist conditions will persist across much of southern Plains and Southeast while weakening high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS will allow for some moisture return into the OH Valley. ...Northern Plains... A moist air mass characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Convergence along the cold front as well as large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave trough are expected to result in enough ascent overcome any remaining convective inhibition, leading to convective initiation. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will likely support scattered severe thunderstorms. Given the linear forcing for ascent and increasing mid-level westerly/northwesterly flow aloft, quick upscale growth is probable, with the resulting convective line capable of strong wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... While some timing differences exist, medium-range and high-resolution guidance are in fairly good agreement that a MCS will be moving into southeast KS and central OK early Sunday morning. Expectation is for this MCS to in the dissipating phase, limiting the overall severe threat. Re-development in the wake of the MCS across central and eastern OK depends strongly on airmass recovery and the position of any remnant boundaries. Currently, airmass recovery appears probable but the location of any remnant boundaries, which will be needed to force deep convection, is uncertain. While the environment will support organized severe thunderstorms, uncertainty regarding timing and boundary location precludes upgrading severe probabilities with this forecast. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft over the north-central CONUS is expected to deepen throughout the period as a shortwave trough (and associated mid-level jet streak) moves quickly eastward/southeastward from Alberta/northern Rockies through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and northern Plains. In response to the progression of this shortwave, upper ridging centered over the Great Lakes early Sunday is expected shift eastward off the Northeast coast. At the surface, a low attendant to the northern Plains shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across Manitoba while an associated cold front sweeps across the northern Plains. Elsewhere, warm and moist conditions will persist across much of southern Plains and Southeast while weakening high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS will allow for some moisture return into the OH Valley. ...Northern Plains... A moist air mass characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Convergence along the cold front as well as large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave trough are expected to result in enough ascent overcome any remaining convective inhibition, leading to convective initiation. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will likely support scattered severe thunderstorms. Given the linear forcing for ascent and increasing mid-level westerly/northwesterly flow aloft, quick upscale growth is probable, with the resulting convective line capable of strong wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... While some timing differences exist, medium-range and high-resolution guidance are in fairly good agreement that a MCS will be moving into southeast KS and central OK early Sunday morning. Expectation is for this MCS to in the dissipating phase, limiting the overall severe threat. Re-development in the wake of the MCS across central and eastern OK depends strongly on airmass recovery and the position of any remnant boundaries. Currently, airmass recovery appears probable but the location of any remnant boundaries, which will be needed to force deep convection, is uncertain. While the environment will support organized severe thunderstorms, uncertainty regarding timing and boundary location precludes upgrading severe probabilities with this forecast. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft over the north-central CONUS is expected to deepen throughout the period as a shortwave trough (and associated mid-level jet streak) moves quickly eastward/southeastward from Alberta/northern Rockies through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and northern Plains. In response to the progression of this shortwave, upper ridging centered over the Great Lakes early Sunday is expected shift eastward off the Northeast coast. At the surface, a low attendant to the northern Plains shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across Manitoba while an associated cold front sweeps across the northern Plains. Elsewhere, warm and moist conditions will persist across much of southern Plains and Southeast while weakening high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS will allow for some moisture return into the OH Valley. ...Northern Plains... A moist air mass characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Convergence along the cold front as well as large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave trough are expected to result in enough ascent overcome any remaining convective inhibition, leading to convective initiation. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will likely support scattered severe thunderstorms. Given the linear forcing for ascent and increasing mid-level westerly/northwesterly flow aloft, quick upscale growth is probable, with the resulting convective line capable of strong wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... While some timing differences exist, medium-range and high-resolution guidance are in fairly good agreement that a MCS will be moving into southeast KS and central OK early Sunday morning. Expectation is for this MCS to in the dissipating phase, limiting the overall severe threat. Re-development in the wake of the MCS across central and eastern OK depends strongly on airmass recovery and the position of any remnant boundaries. Currently, airmass recovery appears probable but the location of any remnant boundaries, which will be needed to force deep convection, is uncertain. While the environment will support organized severe thunderstorms, uncertainty regarding timing and boundary location precludes upgrading severe probabilities with this forecast. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of widespread damaging winds, very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains. Additional isolated severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts are possible across parts of western North Dakota this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern Plains... Decaying remnants of overnight convection will move across the central/southern Plains vicinity during the morning. Cloud cover is likely to inhibit convective redevelopment for much of the day, but south/southeasterly low level flow will maintain mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints across much of OK/KS westward toward a surface trough across far eastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. Cloud cover will remain across much of NE to the north of an effective warm front just north of the NE/KS border. However, partial clearing west of the I-35 corridor in OK/KS will aid in a corridor of strong destabilization by late afternoon. While the main mid/upper level trough will shift eastward across the northern Plains, guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave impulse will migrate through northwest flow aloft from eastern CO into western KS/OK. Forecast soundings depict unusually strong vertical shear for this time of year, with effective shear values from 35-50 kt. Furthermore, strong, vertically veering winds through around 3 km will result in large, curved low-level hodographs. Finally, during the evening, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 40 kt across the southern Plains. Most guidance, CAMs and otherwise, are remarkably consistent in developing isolated cells by late afternoon/early evening in convergent low level flow near a strengthening surface low over eastern CO. Initial cells are expected in the vicinity of the CO/KS border into southwest NE and perhaps southward along the surface trough toward the OK/northern TX Panhandles. Any cells that remain discrete during this initial development will pose a threat for very large hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter) given midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and supercell wind profiles. Additionally, aforementioned low level hodographs and deep boundary-layer moisture will support potential for a couple of tornadoes. As ascent increases with the approach of the midlevel shortwave in conjunction with the increasing low-level jet, storms are expected to grow upscale into one or more bowing segments tracking east/southeast across KS/OK and perhaps the northeast TX Panhandle. Given the overall thermodynamic environment and the expectation that a strong cold pool will be generated given the extent of forecast convection, widespread damaging winds appear possible across portions of western and central KS/OK into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening and nighttime hours. ...Western North Dakota... The main upper-level shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains today. However, stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced to the west of the northern Plains. Midlevel lapse rates also are forecast to be somewhat modest, from around 6.5-7.5 C/km, despite stronger height falls and cooling aloft after 00z. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will develop by late afternoon. Isolated cells are expected to develop as ascent increases toward 00z. Effective shear around 25-35 kt will be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and weak 0-3 km winds will also support a few strong downbursts. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of widespread damaging winds, very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains. Additional isolated severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts are possible across parts of western North Dakota this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern Plains... Decaying remnants of overnight convection will move across the central/southern Plains vicinity during the morning. Cloud cover is likely to inhibit convective redevelopment for much of the day, but south/southeasterly low level flow will maintain mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints across much of OK/KS westward toward a surface trough across far eastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. Cloud cover will remain across much of NE to the north of an effective warm front just north of the NE/KS border. However, partial clearing west of the I-35 corridor in OK/KS will aid in a corridor of strong destabilization by late afternoon. While the main mid/upper level trough will shift eastward across the northern Plains, guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave impulse will migrate through northwest flow aloft from eastern CO into western KS/OK. Forecast soundings depict unusually strong vertical shear for this time of year, with effective shear values from 35-50 kt. Furthermore, strong, vertically veering winds through around 3 km will result in large, curved low-level hodographs. Finally, during the evening, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 40 kt across the southern Plains. Most guidance, CAMs and otherwise, are remarkably consistent in developing isolated cells by late afternoon/early evening in convergent low level flow near a strengthening surface low over eastern CO. Initial cells are expected in the vicinity of the CO/KS border into southwest NE and perhaps southward along the surface trough toward the OK/northern TX Panhandles. Any cells that remain discrete during this initial development will pose a threat for very large hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter) given midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and supercell wind profiles. Additionally, aforementioned low level hodographs and deep boundary-layer moisture will support potential for a couple of tornadoes. As ascent increases with the approach of the midlevel shortwave in conjunction with the increasing low-level jet, storms are expected to grow upscale into one or more bowing segments tracking east/southeast across KS/OK and perhaps the northeast TX Panhandle. Given the overall thermodynamic environment and the expectation that a strong cold pool will be generated given the extent of forecast convection, widespread damaging winds appear possible across portions of western and central KS/OK into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening and nighttime hours. ...Western North Dakota... The main upper-level shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains today. However, stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced to the west of the northern Plains. Midlevel lapse rates also are forecast to be somewhat modest, from around 6.5-7.5 C/km, despite stronger height falls and cooling aloft after 00z. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will develop by late afternoon. Isolated cells are expected to develop as ascent increases toward 00z. Effective shear around 25-35 kt will be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and weak 0-3 km winds will also support a few strong downbursts. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of widespread damaging winds, very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains. Additional isolated severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts are possible across parts of western North Dakota this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern Plains... Decaying remnants of overnight convection will move across the central/southern Plains vicinity during the morning. Cloud cover is likely to inhibit convective redevelopment for much of the day, but south/southeasterly low level flow will maintain mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints across much of OK/KS westward toward a surface trough across far eastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. Cloud cover will remain across much of NE to the north of an effective warm front just north of the NE/KS border. However, partial clearing west of the I-35 corridor in OK/KS will aid in a corridor of strong destabilization by late afternoon. While the main mid/upper level trough will shift eastward across the northern Plains, guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave impulse will migrate through northwest flow aloft from eastern CO into western KS/OK. Forecast soundings depict unusually strong vertical shear for this time of year, with effective shear values from 35-50 kt. Furthermore, strong, vertically veering winds through around 3 km will result in large, curved low-level hodographs. Finally, during the evening, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 40 kt across the southern Plains. Most guidance, CAMs and otherwise, are remarkably consistent in developing isolated cells by late afternoon/early evening in convergent low level flow near a strengthening surface low over eastern CO. Initial cells are expected in the vicinity of the CO/KS border into southwest NE and perhaps southward along the surface trough toward the OK/northern TX Panhandles. Any cells that remain discrete during this initial development will pose a threat for very large hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter) given midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and supercell wind profiles. Additionally, aforementioned low level hodographs and deep boundary-layer moisture will support potential for a couple of tornadoes. As ascent increases with the approach of the midlevel shortwave in conjunction with the increasing low-level jet, storms are expected to grow upscale into one or more bowing segments tracking east/southeast across KS/OK and perhaps the northeast TX Panhandle. Given the overall thermodynamic environment and the expectation that a strong cold pool will be generated given the extent of forecast convection, widespread damaging winds appear possible across portions of western and central KS/OK into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening and nighttime hours. ...Western North Dakota... The main upper-level shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains today. However, stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced to the west of the northern Plains. Midlevel lapse rates also are forecast to be somewhat modest, from around 6.5-7.5 C/km, despite stronger height falls and cooling aloft after 00z. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will develop by late afternoon. Isolated cells are expected to develop as ascent increases toward 00z. Effective shear around 25-35 kt will be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and weak 0-3 km winds will also support a few strong downbursts. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 08/24/2019 Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LBL TO 25 N LBL TO 30 NNE LBL TO 10 S GCK TO 5 NW DDC. ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC069-119-175-240340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRAY MEADE SEWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 615 SEVERE TSTM KS 232350Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas * Effective this Friday evening from 650 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Discrete supercell over southwest Kansas may evolve into a slow-moving cluster along a remnant outflow boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north of Elkhart KS to 30 miles east southeast of Garden City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612...WW 613...WW 614... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29015. ...Grams Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DHT TO 40 ENE DHT TO 15 E GUY TO 50 WNW GCK TO 30 NW LAA TO 40 ESE LIC TO 10 WSW ITR TO 25 NNW ITR TO 25 NW AKO. ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-061-075-095-115-121-125-240340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIOWA LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-240340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC057-240340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 613 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE NM OK TX 232035Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Extreme western Kansas Extreme southwestern Nebraska Extreme northeastern New Mexico The western Oklahoma Panhandle The northwestern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming in several clusters along the Front Range from northeastern New Mexico northward into Colorado. The storm environment is most favorable for multicell clusters and some upscale growth into larger clusters/line segments with an attendant threat for damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two may occur later this evening as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary near the Kansas/Colorado border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 25 miles south southeast of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW SNY TO 20 SW AIA TO 45 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE GCC. WW 614 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240400Z. ..SMITH..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC033-123-240400- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE MORRILL WYC011-240400- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 614 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 232055Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The western Nebraska Panhandle Extreme southwestern South Dakota Much of central and eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming across central Wyoming and immediately east of the higher terrain into eastern Wyoming. The storm environment is sufficient for supercells across central Wyoming, though growth into clusters with damaging winds and large hail should be the primary concern through late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east southeast of Cheyenne WY to 95 miles north northeast of Casper WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612...WW 613... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1845 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613...615... FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1845 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...Portions of east-central Colorado and western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613...615... Valid 240208Z - 240415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613, 615 continues. SUMMARY...Marked downward trend in storm intensity in from east-central Colorado to southwest Kansas in the last hour has reduced overall severe threat. Localized strong gusts and isolated marginally severe hail may still occur, but WW 613 and WW 615 will be allowed to expire at 04Z. DISCUSSION...Storms along the outflow boundary west of Dodge City, KS have generally remained stationary with some tendency to move southward into more buoyant air. The amount of convective overturning that has occurred in southwestern Kansas will diminish the overall severe threat. In east-central Colorado, the slow moving cluster of storms has continued to move into more stable air behind the outflow boundary. Trends in radar imagery has generally shown a decrease in storm intensity as high reflectivity cores aloft have diminished in the last half hour. A modest increase in the low-level jet this evening may allow some of this activity to pose a sporadic/localized threat for a strong wind gust or marginally severe hail. Given the observational trends, WW 613 and WW 615 will be allowed to expire at 04Z. ..Wendt.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37210133 38280301 38720353 39570369 39910313 39900233 39890205 38590019 37369995 37170017 37100076 37070112 37210133 Read more

MD 1844 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1844 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0840 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...Portions of Texas Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240140Z - 240345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two. Greatest risk will exist from near Pampa, TX to near Gage, OK. A new WW is not expected for downstream areas from current activity. DISCUSSION...Recently measured severe wind gusts at Dumas, TX (50 kts) and Beaver, OK (61 kts) indicate that that some risk for severe wind gusts will persist into early evening. The greatest risk appears to be from the Pampa, TX vicinity to Gage, OK where dewpoints have remained in the low 60s F to around 70 F in Hemphill, TX, minimizing MLCIN in this area. However, with continued boundary layer cooling and weak upper-level support, this threat is not likely to continue for more than another hour or two. The 00Z AMA sounding shows weak MLCIN with increasing inhibition noted in Oklahoma per the 00Z OUN sounding. A new WW is not anticipated for areas downstream of the ongoing activity. ..Wendt/Grams.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35360285 36350198 36950046 36869952 36289898 35019977 34640104 34580236 34970283 35360285 Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE RDU TO 10 SE GSO TO 30 SE RZZ. WW 612 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240200Z. ..SMITH..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-063-069-081-127-135-240200- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE DURHAM FRANKLIN GUILFORD NASH ORANGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE RDU TO 10 SE GSO TO 30 SE RZZ. WW 612 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240200Z. ..SMITH..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-063-069-081-127-135-240200- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE DURHAM FRANKLIN GUILFORD NASH ORANGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 612 SEVERE TSTM MD NC VA CW 231920Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 612 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeastern Maryland Northern North Carolina South central and southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity the next few hours along and south of a cold front that will move across Virginia into North Carolina by late this evening. Multicell clusters and line segments will be the primary storm modes, with an attendant threat for damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Greensboro NC to 35 miles east northeast of Norfolk VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CYS TO 20 NE TOR TO 25 WSW GCC. ..SMITH..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-240200- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC033-047-240200- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC005-011-021-027-045-240200- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK LARAMIE NIOBRARA WESTON Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of storms will pose a damaging wind and hail threat across parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into western South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas this evening. The severe threat may extend as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity. ...VA and NC Vicinity... The main change with the 01z update is to remove the Slight and Marginal risk probabilities. Overall, the threat has greatly diminished, and should continue to do so over the next couple of hours as storms move offshore and as the boundary layer stabilizes with loss of daytime heating. A couple of locally strong gusts will remain possible over the next hour or so. ...High Plains... Only minor adjustments have been made to the Slight and Marginal risk areas based on latest trends and ongoing convection. Isolated large hail and strong, locally damaging wind gusts will be possible through the evening, mainly from eastern WY southward through the central High Plains into the TX Panhandle. A line of semi-discrete storms is developing this evening across southwest KS in an area of moist convergence along an outflow boundary along with an increasing low level jet. This band of storms should persist for several more hours this evening, posing a damaging wind threat across parts of western KS and perhaps parts of the OK/TX Panhandles/northwest OK. Additional clusters of storms across east-central and northeast CO and eastern WY will shift eastward into northwest KS, western NE, and southwest SD. With the strengthening low level jet now evident in observations, these clusters also may grow upscale into bowing segments, increasing damaging wind potential as they shift east through the evening. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2019 Read more