Severe Storms

MD 1850 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1850 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617... Valid 250209Z - 250415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk is expected to increase across portions of the WW area in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...While storms which developed earlier across southeast Colorado have diminished, new convective development is ongoing over southwestern Kansas, with storms moving south-southeastward. The convection is occurring in response to a strengthening low-level jet, and as such, it appears possible that some of this convection will affect portions of WW 617 in the next couple of hours. The main risk with this convection, assuming the expected upscale growth, would be locally damaging wind gusts. ..Goss.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37010302 36949984 35409996 35580304 37010302 Read more

MD 1849 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 616... FOR WESTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1849 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...western Kansas and adjacent portion of southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 616... Valid 250139Z - 250345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing at this time across Tornado Watch 616 -- including potential for an isolated tornado. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a noted increase in convection over the past hour across western Kansas, which is correlated with the beginnings of an observed increase in low-level flow. As the jet continues to strengthen this evening, and given the moist/moderately unstable airmass in place across this region, a continuation of this convective increase is expected. While storms remain isolated, and continue to exhibit supercell structures, an isolated tornado remains possible, along with locally damaging winds and large hail. With time, wind risk is expected to increase, as upscale growth of convection into an MCS continues to appear likely. ..Goss.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 40360193 40349914 39629786 38209804 37069835 37040202 37970214 39080225 40360193 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight... A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday morning. An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the Dodge City evening raob. Models show storm development to increase primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ strengthens. Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the activity this evening into the overnight hours. ...ND this evening... A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus for thunderstorm development this evening. Adequate instability east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall storm intensity by late evening. ..Smith.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight... A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday morning. An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the Dodge City evening raob. Models show storm development to increase primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ strengthens. Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the activity this evening into the overnight hours. ...ND this evening... A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus for thunderstorm development this evening. Adequate instability east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall storm intensity by late evening. ..Smith.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight... A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday morning. An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the Dodge City evening raob. Models show storm development to increase primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ strengthens. Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the activity this evening into the overnight hours. ...ND this evening... A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus for thunderstorm development this evening. Adequate instability east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall storm intensity by late evening. ..Smith.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight... A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday morning. An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the Dodge City evening raob. Models show storm development to increase primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ strengthens. Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the activity this evening into the overnight hours. ...ND this evening... A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus for thunderstorm development this evening. Adequate instability east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall storm intensity by late evening. ..Smith.. 08/25/2019 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-250040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON KSC007-009-023-025-033-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069- 071-075-081-083-093-097-101-105-109-119-123-129-135-137-141-145- 147-151-153-159-163-165-167-171-175-179-181-183-185-187-189-193- 195-199-203-250040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CHEYENNE CLARK COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LINCOLN LOGAN MEADE MITCHELL MORTON NESS NORTON OSBORNE Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC059-250040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC007-025-139-250040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS TXC111-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-393-421-250040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALLAM HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN Read more

MD 1848 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...Portions of western/central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242248Z - 250045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms have developed to the west of Minot with more development possible later this evening. A few storms may produce isolated large hail and a few strong/severe wind gusts. A WW is not anticipated given the marginal and spatially limited threat. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed to the west of Minot within a weak confluence zone ahead of a cold front that will move into the region later this evening/overnight. The strongest mid-level flow sits much farther to the west, keeping deep-layer shear relatively modest -- effectively 25-30 kts. The current activity will likely intensify as it moves into greater buoyancy, near 1500 J/kg, to the east. More thunderstorm development may occur later this evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches the area. Isolated large hail and a few strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. Overall coverage of severe activity should remain low. A WW is not anticipated this evening. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 48410310 48970244 48970116 47820109 46610161 46090187 45950282 46080320 46490343 48410310 Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0617 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 617 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 242250Z - 250600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 550 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated storms moving into far northeast New Mexico and the Oklahoma Panhandle should further intensify while other storms develop through the evening. Large hail should be the primary risk, but a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly during the early/mid-evening hours as a low-level jet increases across the region. Damaging wind potential could also increase if an organized cluster evolves as storms progress southeastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Clayton NM to 85 miles east northeast of Borger TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 616... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1848 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...Portions of western/central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242248Z - 250045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms have developed to the west of Minot with more development possible later this evening. A few storms may produce isolated large hail and a few strong/severe wind gusts. A WW is not anticipated given the marginal and spatially limited threat. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed to the west of Minot within a weak confluence zone ahead of a cold front that will move into the region later this evening/overnight. The strongest mid-level flow sits much farther to the west, keeping deep-layer shear relatively modest -- effectively 25-30 kts. The current activity will likely intensify as it moves into greater buoyancy, near 1500 J/kg, to the east. More thunderstorm development may occur later this evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches the area. Isolated large hail and a few strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. Overall coverage of severe activity should remain low. A WW is not anticipated this evening. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 48410310 48970244 48970116 47820109 46610161 46090187 45950282 46080320 46490343 48410310 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0616 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 616 TORNADO CO KS NE 242225Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far eastern Colorado Western and central Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase initially across southwest Nebraska, northwest Kansas, and also southwest Kansas through early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail can be expected. The possibility of a couple of tornadoes will also increase through the early/mid-evening hours, particularly across a broad part of western toward north-central Kansas. Damaging winds will also be an increasing concern later this evening as an organized thunderstorm cluster likely evolves and spreads southeastward across northwest/central Kansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of Burlington CO to 30 miles southeast of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 24 22:04:02 UTC 2019.

MD 1847 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico and into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242201Z - 242330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms developing over the far southeast Colorado vicinity may pose a local hail wind risk, with some upscale growth possible with time as the convection spreads southeastward toward lower elevations. A WW could become necessary. DISCUSSION...Latest visible and radar loops over the central/southern high Plains show isolated storms developing over far southeast Colorado at this time, within an environment featuring moderate instability and an amply veering/sheared profile with height. One of the cells, over southeast Baca County Colorado, appears to have acquired rotation per radar reflectivity/SRM data, consistent with the background environment. With time, expect the developing storms spread southeastward across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, possibly expanding/growing upscale into at least a loosely organized MCS. With initial cells somewhat high-based, and surface dewpoint depressions in excess of 20F in most areas, tornado risk should remain limited. Large hail will be a greater risk with the initial supercell mode, with wind becoming an increasing possibility with time if storms can indeed achieve at least loose linear/bowing organization. We will continue to monitor degree of convective coverage that evolves, with an eye toward possible WW issuance. ..Goss/Guyer.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 38080286 37760234 37260159 37000050 36129972 35180021 35140208 36480368 37320304 38080286 Read more

MD 1846 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1846 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...portions of southwest and south-central Nebraska...central and northwest Kansas and east-central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 242055Z - 242300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in intensity after 4 to 5 pm CDT with large hail and damaging winds likely, and a tornado or two possible. Trends are being monitored and a watch is likely prior to 6 pm CDT/23Z. DISCUSSION...A gradually-deepening cumulus field was noted on visible satellite imagery across western portions of the KS/NE border at 2045Z. This area is on the southern periphery of a mid-level convectively-enhanced vortex, and in advance of a compact upstream impulse over northeast CO/NE Panhandle. Low-level moisture advection beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates have contributed to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and with additional diurnal heating some further increase in surface-based instability is likely. Mid-level northwesterly flow should increase slightly through this evening, resulting in effective shear averaging 35-45 kts. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over northern/western portions of the discussion area over the next few hours in the presence of negligible CINH and weakly confluent low-level flow. Initial mode will include supercells, with large hail, possibly significant, and damaging winds the primary threats. Notable low-level veering/curved hodographs in RAP forecast soundings, primarily across the KS portion of the discussion area, suggests some potential for low-level rotation and perhaps one or two tornadoes with more discrete storms in the first couple of hours after initiation. With time, upscale growth is anticipated as a cold pool organizes and the convective complex moves southeast this evening aided by modestly increasing low-level warm advection. Damaging winds should become the dominant threat, with large hail remaining possible with the strongest updrafts. Trends are being monitored and a watch is likely prior to 23Z. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40270164 40610078 40710029 40679983 40339925 39989870 39369837 38839833 38379842 37779894 37690023 38740226 39140235 39740226 40270164 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...20Z Outlook Update... Expected evolution of convection remains in line with the ongoing convective outlook. Initiation of storms is expected to occur across far northern Kansas this afternoon/early evening although specific timing remains uncertain. A few of these storms may already be underway across western and southwestern Nebraska. The expectation is that convection will congeal into a southeastward-moving complex that will migrate through the Enhanced area and reach northern Oklahoma late tonight, with additional storms expected in west-central and southwestern Kansas during the afternoon. A more isolated threat for severe storms will exist across central/western North Dakota and also central Montana. ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...KS/northern OK through tonight... An initial convectively enhanced midlevel trough is pivoting northeastward over northern KS/southern NE, as an upstream trough over southeastern WY/northern CO moves toward western KS by this evening. In the wake of widespread overnight convection, steeper midlevel lapse rates will spread east-southeastward from CO toward western KS, above low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central KS and OK. Clouds will linger today across most of KS aside from the southwest, but the combination of increasing midlevel lapse rates/low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid-late afternoon across western KS. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the location(s) and timing of convective initiation this afternoon into early tonight. One scenario appears to be for convection to start late this afternoon/evening near the KS/NE border, in a zone of low-level warm advection along the southern flank of the MCV. This area will be just north of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear, so there would be a tendency for storms to cluster/merge and begin to grow upscale and move southeastward on congealing outflow into early tonight. The environment farther south into the western half of KS will be conditionally favorable for supercells with large hodograph curvature/SRH in the low levels, and effective bulk shear near or greater than 40 kt. However, the focus for storm initiation south of the MCV/warm advection is a bit more nebulous across western KS this afternoon, other than weak ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving southeastward from CO. If surface-based storms can form across western KS, all severe hazards will be possible. Will largely maintain the previous outlook to cover the possibility for an MCS central KS overnight, and for evening supercells in western KS that could move toward northwest OK. ...Western ND this afternoon/evening... A surface trough could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across western ND. Forcing for ascent will be weak, along with vertical shear, which suggest that marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. ...Central/eastern MT this evening... Some high based convection should form later this afternoon/evening across central MT, in advance of an embedded speed max moving eastward from northern ID. Though low-level moisture will be limited, inverted-v profiles and an increase in midlevel flow prior to stabilization of the boundary layer could support isolated storms with strong outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...20Z Outlook Update... Expected evolution of convection remains in line with the ongoing convective outlook. Initiation of storms is expected to occur across far northern Kansas this afternoon/early evening although specific timing remains uncertain. A few of these storms may already be underway across western and southwestern Nebraska. The expectation is that convection will congeal into a southeastward-moving complex that will migrate through the Enhanced area and reach northern Oklahoma late tonight, with additional storms expected in west-central and southwestern Kansas during the afternoon. A more isolated threat for severe storms will exist across central/western North Dakota and also central Montana. ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...KS/northern OK through tonight... An initial convectively enhanced midlevel trough is pivoting northeastward over northern KS/southern NE, as an upstream trough over southeastern WY/northern CO moves toward western KS by this evening. In the wake of widespread overnight convection, steeper midlevel lapse rates will spread east-southeastward from CO toward western KS, above low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central KS and OK. Clouds will linger today across most of KS aside from the southwest, but the combination of increasing midlevel lapse rates/low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid-late afternoon across western KS. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the location(s) and timing of convective initiation this afternoon into early tonight. One scenario appears to be for convection to start late this afternoon/evening near the KS/NE border, in a zone of low-level warm advection along the southern flank of the MCV. This area will be just north of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear, so there would be a tendency for storms to cluster/merge and begin to grow upscale and move southeastward on congealing outflow into early tonight. The environment farther south into the western half of KS will be conditionally favorable for supercells with large hodograph curvature/SRH in the low levels, and effective bulk shear near or greater than 40 kt. However, the focus for storm initiation south of the MCV/warm advection is a bit more nebulous across western KS this afternoon, other than weak ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving southeastward from CO. If surface-based storms can form across western KS, all severe hazards will be possible. Will largely maintain the previous outlook to cover the possibility for an MCS central KS overnight, and for evening supercells in western KS that could move toward northwest OK. ...Western ND this afternoon/evening... A surface trough could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across western ND. Forcing for ascent will be weak, along with vertical shear, which suggest that marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. ...Central/eastern MT this evening... Some high based convection should form later this afternoon/evening across central MT, in advance of an embedded speed max moving eastward from northern ID. Though low-level moisture will be limited, inverted-v profiles and an increase in midlevel flow prior to stabilization of the boundary layer could support isolated storms with strong outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...20Z Outlook Update... Expected evolution of convection remains in line with the ongoing convective outlook. Initiation of storms is expected to occur across far northern Kansas this afternoon/early evening although specific timing remains uncertain. A few of these storms may already be underway across western and southwestern Nebraska. The expectation is that convection will congeal into a southeastward-moving complex that will migrate through the Enhanced area and reach northern Oklahoma late tonight, with additional storms expected in west-central and southwestern Kansas during the afternoon. A more isolated threat for severe storms will exist across central/western North Dakota and also central Montana. ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...KS/northern OK through tonight... An initial convectively enhanced midlevel trough is pivoting northeastward over northern KS/southern NE, as an upstream trough over southeastern WY/northern CO moves toward western KS by this evening. In the wake of widespread overnight convection, steeper midlevel lapse rates will spread east-southeastward from CO toward western KS, above low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central KS and OK. Clouds will linger today across most of KS aside from the southwest, but the combination of increasing midlevel lapse rates/low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid-late afternoon across western KS. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the location(s) and timing of convective initiation this afternoon into early tonight. One scenario appears to be for convection to start late this afternoon/evening near the KS/NE border, in a zone of low-level warm advection along the southern flank of the MCV. This area will be just north of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear, so there would be a tendency for storms to cluster/merge and begin to grow upscale and move southeastward on congealing outflow into early tonight. The environment farther south into the western half of KS will be conditionally favorable for supercells with large hodograph curvature/SRH in the low levels, and effective bulk shear near or greater than 40 kt. However, the focus for storm initiation south of the MCV/warm advection is a bit more nebulous across western KS this afternoon, other than weak ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving southeastward from CO. If surface-based storms can form across western KS, all severe hazards will be possible. Will largely maintain the previous outlook to cover the possibility for an MCS central KS overnight, and for evening supercells in western KS that could move toward northwest OK. ...Western ND this afternoon/evening... A surface trough could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across western ND. Forcing for ascent will be weak, along with vertical shear, which suggest that marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. ...Central/eastern MT this evening... Some high based convection should form later this afternoon/evening across central MT, in advance of an embedded speed max moving eastward from northern ID. Though low-level moisture will be limited, inverted-v profiles and an increase in midlevel flow prior to stabilization of the boundary layer could support isolated storms with strong outflow gusts. Read more